Source: Zhongshi Electronic News
Author: Shi Qiping
U.S. media rumored that US Secretary of State Brosky will visit China recently. If the news is indeed, it will become the top official of the United States since 2018. However, neither the US State Department and the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs have not determined this trip.
The current Sino -US relations can be called the low tide that has not been seen before 40 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two parties in 1979. It is not exaggerated to say that it is approaching the edge of the war.Last week, I listed Kissinger, Musk and Buffett's three top smart people highly worried about the situation in the Taiwan Strait. Kissinger rarely loosened and believed that there was a possibility of conflict between China and the United States."Solution; Musk also said that the Taiwan Strait conflict is inevitable, and he will not be the only person to bear the consequences. Both Tesla and Apple will be involved in conflict and dilemma, and the global economy will also be hit by 30%.As for the stock god Buffett, all the stocks of TSMC in the hands have not long ago.Today, I want to introduce one more.
Dalio, the founder of the hedge fund bridge water, who mastered the $ 124 billion wealth, has recently conducted two visits to China. It lasted about two weeks.What is the focus of focus on the relationship between China and the United States?How will the relationship between the two countries affect the international situation?The final summary of this judgment: The United States and China are on the edge of war and have exceeded the ability to negotiate.
Dalio made the basis for judgment: First, the two sides are very close to the red line of the other party; second, both sides are risky crossing the other party's red line, and adopt the marginal policy that only forces the other party to concession;Political factors may lead to a more aggressive marginal policy in the next 18 months.
"18 months", which is exactly the same as the warning time I proposed in the previous comments.It is easy to make the United States step on or cross the red line of the Chinese side in almost unconsciously, so that the two strongest explosions of China and the United States, which are currently on the edge of the war.Singapore Deputy Prime Minister Huang Xuncai also foreseen these crises and described the conflict in a "sleepwalking".
In addition to the situation of the situation, the danger of tension, Dalio's other observations and research and judgment are more noteworthy, that is, he said that "the two sides have exceeded the ability to negotiate."Dalio pointed out that any discussions between the United States and China about major matters have become a platform for each other.These dialogues only exacerbate the deterioration of the relationship rather than bringing improvement, so dialogue is worse than avoiding dialogue.Based on this trip to visit China, all parties should not be optimistic or even vigilant.
For this war, Dalio suggested that the relevant parties should try to reach some agreements to curb the worst cases that may occur.For example, the two sides will not fight on each other's territory, and the two sides do not use nuclear weapons, networks and space weapons.Of course, Dalio also acknowledged that these constraints may not be observed.
In the end, what would it be like if the conflict broke out?Dalio's analysis is that the slightly somewhat consequences are to bring serious economic and financial crises to the United States, China, and the world. Like Musk's most worry, the more serious consequences are military war.Here, I may have greater concerns than Daidio. The war between Russia and Ukraine has involved NATO and a group of Western countries. China and the United States really broke out in the Taiwan Strait.Between China and the United States, once it moves, it is really difficult to imagine.
The author is a senior commentator of Phoenix Satellite TV
