In the nine years of Zhenguan, a long -legendary mysterious fruit finally entered Changan: the Kangguo Mission from Central Asia arrived in Changan and presented a fruit to Tang Taizong.Raising the golden peach.Samalham was the capital of Kangguo at the time. In Uzbekistan today, the local dry climate caused the sweetness of the fruit.
After thousands of years, American sinologist Edward Hetzel Schafer regretted saying: "What about this fruit's taste, we can no longer speculate now." In order to make up for this regret, he took his academic name with his name, and he took his academic name.The golden peach named Samalham depicts the products, trade and globalization at that time.
The China -Central Asian Summit held in Xi'an on May 18 reached a list of many results to try to reconstruct this brilliant Silk Road.Looking back at history, the ancient Silk Road was embellished with a paragraph of the Chinese and Central Asian national civilization exchanges and mutual learning. Today, China has more close exchanges with Central Asian countries, and continues to write a new chapter of interconnection.
Behind Central Asia, as the center of land power, is the overwhelming organization covering the world ’s islands, most of the mainland Asia -Europe, and the population.This is a development alliance and land power integration including China -Russia and Iran. In the military, economic and resource system, it can form hedging with sea power, if not confrontation.
This also to a certain extent, verifying the U.S. strategic master of the American strategic master Bu -Trezel 26 years ago, the Book of Chess Books said in the book of China, Russia, and Iraq.He warned: "(For the United States) the biggest potential danger is that China and Russia may have a major league. The reason for the formation of this" anti -hegemony "alliance is not ideology, but complement each other (for the United States)Dissatisfaction. "This threat even exceeds the challenges of the United States by the" European "(European and Russian United) and the" Sino -Japanese Alliance "on the eastern end of the world.He also said that the visionary United States should avoid or prevent the formation of this situation.Today, everything predicted by Bujetzinsky is becoming a reality.
Singapore Prime Minister Li Xianlong said in a speech last year: "The relationship between China and the United States is deteriorating. There are many problems between the two parties.It is likely to improve in the short term. "He was worried that" the misjudgment or accident occurred by the two sides would easily make the situation worse. "
Evaluate geopolitical transformation from power transfer theory
The development of strategic competition between China and the United States has enabled people to re -examine a successful structural theory in international relations -theory of power transfer.It represents a dynamic and multi -functional model that analyzes the fundamental transformation of global power, and depicts global and regional politics as a system -based system;EssenceThis layered international system is considered a static entity affected by dynamic factors, such as political and economic performance, population growth, satisfaction and dissatisfaction with the status quo, and regional integration.
Stability of international or regions is usually changed by dynamics of power transfer, which produces potential changes and challengers, and they try to fight the status quo.Woosang Kim, Douglas Lemke, and Suzanne Werner believe that dissatisfaction with the status quo is more important war forecast than power balance.When considering the dynamics of Central Asia, Limk demonstrated the application of the theory of power transfer at the regional level, trying to prove the theoretical assumptions of the correlation with the regional hierarchy, and emphasize the relationship between regional leadership and regional challenges.
In the interpretation of the regional interpretation of power in Central Asia, Russia is still the main military and geopolitical participants in regional power levels, and China has evolved into the main economic challengers.After the power transfer between the two major powers, the development of regional integration has been improved.According to the original framework of Katherine Organski, emphasizing the correlation of economic transfers in power transfer analysis, China surpasses Russia to become the largest trading partner in Central Asia, and at the same time increases the existence of other neighboring countries.
Therefore, at least economically, China and Russia's interaction in Central Asia are witnessing the transfer of regional forces, and China has gradually transformed into a leading economy in Central Asia.From the perspective of infrastructure and economy, the China -Central Asian Summit represents the main catalytic power transfer of Central Asia from Russia to China, providing evidence for the above -mentioned theoretical framework of power transfer.
The Tang Dynasty of the seventh century was the era of the prosperity of the Silk Road and immigrants. The influence of the Tang Dynasty in Central Asia has made it possible to continue to flow into Middle Turkey.This is an era that advocates foreign items. The pursuit of a variety of foreign luxury goods and strange treasures began to spread from the court.In the early days of Tang Xuanzong's rule of the eighth century, it was a rich and peaceful era of "no expensive things in the world". People can travel around the world very conveniently. Secondly, the ancient natural economy is replaced by the monetary economy, which has promoted the prosperity of the economy and the development of business.
This is the prosperity, trade and globalization of 1300 years ago. Peace is the real "Samalham's golden peach".Of course.From Samarham to Washington, the tremendous changes in geopolitics based on power transfer are happening.Former centenarians, former US Secretary of State Kissinger, once concluded that leadership requires three qualities, namely "inspiring and long -term ability over time, ability to resist being sneered by the current emotions, and a historical consciousness"This leadership is rare now.
Former Deputy Secretary of State Homaz, who used to work for Kissinger, recently wrote in the Wealth Magazine that the United States cannot organize and manage bilateral relations and so -called new global order on the basis of continuous and tight relations with China.Seeing this process as a zero -sum game, let alone try to challenge or criticize the legitimacy of another national governance system to complete the policy goals.There are profound differences in the historical culture and political system of China and the United States, which must be recognized and respected.
Unfortunately, from the experience of the transfer of power in Central Asia and the intensified lessons of the Sino -US game, the rational decision -making of the United States' sober review of history is still too rare as "Golden Peach".
(The author is a special researcher at the area of Sichuan Normal University and the State Research Institute)
