Whether the world has changed, this does not change due to people's cognition of the world.Although countries around the world have still indulged in the traditional territory and geography view of thousands of years, in fact, the traditional territorial possession and geographical control are far less important than the past.EssenceHowever, it is a pity that the whole world, especially the great powers, is still on the concept of traditional territory and geopolitics, which has led to many meaningless conflicts and wars.The Russian and Ukraine War was dominated by this backward concept. Although it profoundly changed the world pattern, it was basically a stupid battle; if the concept was adjusted, this disaster could be avoided.
1. The Geographic Age of the post -territory has come
In view of this, this article clearly proposes the concept of "post -territory after the territory".The basic meaning is: after World War II, especially since the 1970s, the global development of global transportation and communications with informationization as the main technical conditions, and the globalization of increasingly expanding global market interactions, has made it for wealth production and national securityAs for, the importance (weight) of science and technology, capital and management is increasing; the importance of territorial and geographical is increasingly decreased, making the world enter the post -territory.However, we should not understand the value of territory and geography at a point, but to understand the value changes on the line of change.
Originally, the inevitable advent of the post -territory after the territory has long been contained in the trend of globalization after World War II. In the 1970s, it even foresee it.People say a word.Unfortunately, as the most important social ideological producer in the world today, the United States has a slow response, and neither the political elite and the intellectual elite have not realized that the post -territory has come in the post -territory.
Since the 1970s, important scholars and scholar -type politicians in the United States, such as Kissinger, Bujetzinski, Mills Heman, Waltz, JP Morgan, etc., have still followed and even strengthened the traditional geopolitics concept, andIt affects people, especially affecting US politics.This has caused the United States to fail to avoid many meaningless conflicts, war, death, and losses.This is not to comment on whether the United States should safeguard the hegemony from a moral perspective, but to rationally consider how to minimize the world's losses as much as possible while maintaining hegemony, to achieve Pareto Optimalitystate).
Although the concept of geography after the post -territory is subversive, it is a completely anti -common sense view from common sense. It can be derived from the common information of the world today, and once it is clarified, it is easy to be easyunderstand.Therefore, the writing method of this article can be summarized as: old materials+new ideas → new views.
2. Related and advent of the Geographic Age after the Territory
1. Theoretical coordinates: The importance of social elements in the production of wealth
In the multi -level goal of human pursuit of happiness, although wealth itself is not the ultimate goal, there is a hub position in human happiness. Most of the behaviors of human beings are based on how to obtain wealth.The direct purpose is to obtain wealth.To control the geography, there are two aspects of direct and indirectly to obtain wealth: to control the geography to protect the economic channel, to directly obtain wealth; to control the geography to protect national security, it is indirectly to obtain wealth.This means that the more important a social element is in the production of wealth, the more important it is.Therefore, the importance (weight) of social elements in the production of wealth can be selected as the theoretical coordinates of discussing the changes in territorial and geographical value.
Second, post -territory post -geopolphism brewing
In ancient times, because technological progress was very slow, the main source of wealth was land, and as the population increased, land became more and more important.The total amount of wealth of a society and the total amount of land of society, the degree of prosperity of a society and the median land volume of social members, and the degree of individual richness and the amount of land they have.Linear relationship).However, since the Industrial Revolution, due to the importance (weight) of science, technology, capital, and management in the production of wealth, this linear relationship has gradually been broken.After World War II, especially since the 1970s, this linear relationship has been severely broken.This is the decline in territorial and geographical importance, which leads to the economic reasons that will inevitably arrive in the post -territory in the post -territory. It is also the most fundamental reason.
However, the above trend is just a qualitative judgment, and its performance in different historical periods is different.Before World War II, from the perspective of wealth production, on the one hand, from technical conditions, although global transportation and communications had developed greatly, they were still not developed; on the other hand, from institutional conditions, many countries have not yet opened modern transformation or modern transformation or modernity.The degree of transformation is not sufficient, and the degree of marketization is very low. Many resources have not yet been commercialized.The combination of the two has caused the overall degree of globalization to be low, so production presents a strong localization characteristics, which leads to a strong dependence on production on specific land.From the perspective of national security, in the World War II, the main artillery range invested in various countries did not have more than 20 kilometers, and there were no control devices; the aircraft and the carried bombs were not guided.The technology and experience of pilots.Under such technical conditions, geographical advantages do have an important role.
Three, the advent of the post -territory after the territory
Regardless of whether humans have realized that since the Second World War (especially since the 1970s), there are two main reasons for promoting the post -territory in the post -territory.For the moderate globalization of institutional conditions, the commodity of global resources is commodized, so that wealth production is significantly located (including domestic alienization and transnationalization), that is, although wealth production still depends on land, it will no longer rely on specific land, And no longer rely on specific territories, which has created "post -territory" and even "post -land".The essence of production and localization is that production can use global resources to be free and fully used, that is, globalization, which is the intuition and space performance of globalization.This means that the relationship between territorial possession and wealth is getting weaker.The positive examples are many developed countries in the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Europe, especially Singapore and South Korea.Russia is the most typical reverse example.
Second, technological progress makes weapons more and more likely to break through the traditional geopolitical barrier or space obstacles, which seriously weaken the traditional geopolitical military functions and greatly reduce the traditional geopolitical maintenance effect on national security.Generate "back ground".This means that traditional territorial views and geographical views become backward and outdated.
In contemporary, among all the constituent elements of social wealth production and national security maintenance, scientific and technological innovation, capital innovation and management innovation have become the most important force in the production and national security maintenance of social wealth, and the importance (weight (weight (weight (weight (weight (weight (weight) Turn higher and higher (comparison and horizontal comparison); the importance of territory and geography is getting lower and lower (comparison).But unfortunately, the concept of political elites and intellectual elites in various countries has not yet changed, and it is still in the traditional territory and geographical concepts and treats territorial issues and geographical issues irrationally.
Three, from the Persian Gulf War to the Russia and Ukraine War: Macro evidence of the Geographic Age after the Territory
From the Persian Gulf War to the Russia and Ukraine War, the increasingly strong signal tells us that the emergence of the post -territory has come.
The Persian Gulf War shows that the informatization, remoteness, accuracy, maneuverability, and power of contemporary warfare (and the intelligence of future intelligence and instructions) have greatly reduced the value of traditional geopolitical.Regardless of how much geographical barrier Iraq has, the effect is almost zero.
The essence of the Russian and Ukraine War is still a conflict under the domination of traditional geopolitical views.Ukraine only with the help of the United States and Western assistance and used in the Persian Gulf War's second -rate weapons, coupled with some newer information technologies, made Russia in traditional military powers in a failure trend.It is foreseeable that Russia will lose.
From this we can imagine that in the future, if the scientific and technological strength of Russia and the United StatesThe gap continues to expand, and Russia will likely lose its ability to attack the United States. All weapons such as aircraft, missiles, and other information technology may be remotely controlled by the United States.It can also be simulated. If the United States and Russia are in a state of war, what is the use of Russia's geographical barrier?If the United States will attack Russia from Ukraine, even if Ukraine maintains neutrality, even an alliance with Russia to resist the United States, can Ukraine, a geographical barrier, can effectively resist or ease the US offense?——It may have a little effect, but it is minimal, and it will become smaller and smaller in the future.
Therefore, the traditional geopolitical view of Russia is completely meaningless.Similarly, the Russian War showed that the United States still attaches the same emphasis on geopolitics as in the past and is neither rational nor worth it.
If you do not consider morality, the various territorial occupation and geopolitical control behavior from ancient times to before World War II are more worthy than Russia attacking Ukraine and NATO East expansion, because in the previous case, whether the active attacker is active or notThe relative value of the war goals (land and geography) is huge; in the latter case, the relative value of the war goals has been greatly reduced.This is like in ancient times, without heating energy such as natural gas, power, solar energy, farmers may fight for a firewood.Today, natural gas, electricity, solar energy, etc. have become the main heating energy and cheap. Is it necessary for farmers to fight for a firewood?——It is not necessary.
However, it is very regrettable that at present, the whole world is in the old concept, and the main powers still quarrel or even fight the "firewood".
In this sense, in the Russia -Ukrainian war driven by the concept of the back, no one was innocent.
Fourth, global politics generally made mistakes: unwilling to geopolitical conflicts
Italian sociologist Pretto has a point of view: "Specific political behavior does not depend on the authenticity of a proposition, but on people's views on these behaviors." People's behavior basis is not a fact, but acknowledge that it is recognized by recognitionKnow.The wrong cognition leads to wrong behavior and causes tragedy.However, the most troublesomeness is the conflict between concepts and reality: on the one hand, the world has actually entered the post -territory and post -territory, but on the other hand, human beings have not yet formed the geopolitical concept after territory.This kind of cognitive errors have led to universal political errors in all countries (especially great powers), which directly leads to many geopolitical reality conflicts and potential crises that can still be avoided, such as the Russian and Uchians and the Taiwan Strait crisis.
In these conflicts and crisis, the United States, as the world's first power, has the largest mediation and ease responsibility for alleviating, but it has not assumed corresponding responsibilities because of its old geopolitics.Conflict and crisis.If the concept is adjusted, although there are still disputes in Sino -US relations, it will definitely be much better than now, and the tense international situation will ease, thereby improving the global economic environment.
In fact, the geopolitical concepts of post -territory do not deny existing national sovereignty and territorial boundaries and identification. Instead, try to change the traditional concepts, and handle incremental and existing disputes about territorial and geographical and geographical disputes in a more rational and peaceful way.First of all, do not create new disputes; second, do not use force or force threats to solve existing disputes.
In the emergence of the post -territory, life and property losses caused by geographical conflicts are meaningless. It is far more meaningful than the loss of World War I and World War II, so it is even more human tragedy.Human rationality has the responsibility to avoid such tragedies.
(the author is a professor at the School of International Relations of Sichuan University)
