Source: Hong Kong 01
Author: Ye Dehao
In the early morning of June 5, the Russian Ministry of Defense stated that the Russian army repelled the "large -scale" multi -way offense in Donetsk on the 4th, saying that Ukraine lost more than 250 soldiers and 16 soldiers.Tanks, three infantry chariots, and 21 armored vehicles, and announced the film claiming to be an Ukraine Military Vehicle being attacked.
Ukraine President Volodymyr ZELENSKY recently stated that Ukraine was ready to counterattack, and the Ukraine also released a video on the 4th to call on people to remain silent about the Ukraine's movement. It seems that this is indeed the beginning of Ukraine's counterattack.
However, the daily battle update of the Ukraine on the 4th did not mention large -scale counterattacks, but only mentioned that there were 29 crossfires in Lugansk and Donetsk.The Ukrainian strategic communication and information security center did not respond to the news of the Russian Ministry of Defense, only saying that Russia would seek to spread lies.The Ukrainian military spokesman was asked on the 5th that his counterattack also said that he had nothing to do with the phase information and would not comment on any false news.
According to the Russian military blog Rybar (and its quoting blog), the Ukraine has offensive at the front line of the front line of the Unda and Zaporizhzhia.The north and southwest of Bakhmut, to many small towns west of Vuhledar in the eastern part of Zapolo.Among them, Ukraine has been promoted to a certain extent, but it has paid serious losses in some places.
Igor Girkin, the leader of the Russian armed forces, said that Ukraine has not used its main force to predict that the battle of war in the next few days will increase.Early in the early morning of the 5th, the East of Zapolo continued to spread the news of the Ukraine's offensive.
In addition to the latest development of these front lines, the two teams of the Russian -Burning Corps of the two teams of the Russian border Belgorod in the northeast of Ukraine entered the Russian border.Captain, the Governor of Buer Gorod once promised to meet with him, but in the end, he did not attend, and the two teams claimed that the captives would be handed over to the Ukraine.
At the same time, the Ukraine continues to attack the target of the "Storm Shadow" cruise missiles from the Britain to attack the target of the front line from the front line.BerDyansk.
If the above attacks, especially the ground offensive on the front line, it is really the development of Ukraine's big counterattack, not a trial operation or to create a "shaped combat" operation that creates the favorable situation of the battlefield, Ukraine's counterattack is veryIt may be possible to "fail".
What is "success" and "failure", of course, according to the goals of action.We assume that the goal of Ukraine's counterattack is to quickly recapture a large area of strategic significance, and to recapture Kharkiv (Kharkiv) in September last year, and Kherson, the city of Niebber River.From this perspective, if Ukraine's counterattack can only be advanced slowly, and even with the Russian army falling into the stalemate like Bachurut at the front line, Ukraine's counterattack is a failure.
Russia has been preparing for the long -term defense of Ukraine's counterattack.Some analysts have long stated that Ukraine's counterattack must be hit in one blow, causing the Russian army to lose their defensive will.Failure to end -victory and losses are likely to depend on the first day of counterattack.
If June 4th is the first day of Ukraine's counterattack, this is obviously not a day of success.
On the Shangri -La dialogue on June 3, Indonesia's Minister of Defense Prabowo Subianto took the world's greatness and proposed the "real -time ceasefire" Russian and Ukraine plan.The ceasefire of about 18%of the territory of Ukraine is established, and the "non -military region" received by the United Nations is established, while controversial land solves sovereignty through a referendum.
Because the "real -time ceasefire" proposal is tantamount to accepting the results of Russia's invasion, and Russia will give Russia more often to create a established facts that actually govern Ukraine's land.Moreover, the "referendum solution" is difficult to have credibility after the pro -Ukrainian citizens in these Russian control areas fled because of the war.
However, if Ukraine's counterattack failed to reverse the stalemate battle, unless the West is willing to have no life with Russia and aimlessly consume it, "instantaneous ceasefire" will be a feasible way to stop the war under the limitations of reality.Judging from the preliminary battle of Ukraine's counterattack at this moment, Ukraine is not far away when facing reality.
