Wu Fangming: Behind Erdogans creation of ＂New Türkiye＂

Source: Report

Author: Wu Fangming

Recep Tayyip Erdo? AN has gone through the most difficult election campaign in his life history and won the second round of presidential elections and will enter the third presidential term.Turkey is very important in geopolitics between Eurasia. Erdogan, who has been in power for 20 years, has to bring Turkey to from the fierce election process, the differences in public opinion, and the political and economic situation at home and abroad.Look, the future of Turkey is full of challenges.

No longer the first in Europe and the United States, the head of the European and American countries

This election has the most eye -catching impact on geopolitics.Traditionally, Turkey is a medium -sighted country westward. In recent years, with strong military intervention and foreign policy, it has become a key role in the regional area.Due to the important strategic position of geography span Eurasia, Turkey has always been deeply influenced by global power transfer and geopolitical turbulence and vacuum of power.

In addition, in recent years, Turkish military strength has expanded rapidly, adding confidence to the turning point of independent and independent foreign policies, and has also produced a co -seismic effect with the domestic political atmosphere.The Erdogan government restored the "New Ottoman Empire" emotions of the "New Ottoman Empire" with "let Turkey great again", and inspired the public's support for the government through the "populist dividend".

This key turning point should be talked about from the Spring of Arabia in 2011.Since the Spring of Arabia, Turkey's internal affairs and foreign policies have quietly changed. It has multi -directional unilateralism and more independent foreign policies on the outside world.The relationship with countries such as Russia and China has changed its own political and security traditions.

In the first 10 years of Erdogan's administration, it took a firm pro -European route to build "common identity" with soft power such as historical narrative and cultural symbols to promote regional integration and expand it with Eurasia and the Middle East.The relationship between neighboring countries, including the Bargan Peninsula, uses the political advantages of grounding to promote the identity of the dialogue in the East and the West, and the Middle East has therefore become a keyword for foreign policies.

After the Spring of Arabia, Turkey has continuously launched unilateral operations to intervene in regional affairs and actively use force.Cross -border military operations include intervention in Syria and Libya, and also provided UAVs to Aseya, and opened military bases in Qatar and Somalia, which was involved in the conflict of Nagorno Karabakh.In the beginning, the Turkish government did not intend to interfere with its neighboring sovereignty. After the Spring of the Arabia, the Turkish government advertised itself as "the main advocate of the Middle East democracy."However, in the output of democracy, Turkey's approach has become more and more interference, and has abandoned the principle of non -interferenceism that has been adhered to for a long time.

With the fading of the Arab world's wave of democracy, the Erdogan government's position has shifted from "promoting democratic process" to "protecting its own security interests."For example, the security threats formed by the Syrian Kurdish armed forces replaced the Syrian regime change and became the primary topic of Turkey in security.Turkey launched a series of military operations in Syria's five years after 2016, including the aura, olive branches, Heping Spring and Spring Shield operations, etc., and did not coordinate with European and American allies.

Convert Turkish nationalism into domestic support

Turkey is a member of NATO, but purchased the Russian Russian-made S-400 air defense system radar; the two "neutral countries" of Finland and Sweden in Nordic countries want to join NATO, and Turkey's first jump out of public opposition;Do not implement NATO sanctions on Moscow, all show the differences between Turkey and Europe and the United States, and highlight their independent diplomatic autonomy.

In fact, Erdogan's foreign policy has exceeded the needs of national strength and security, and in recent years, the domestic governance crisis and economic weakness have not promoted the Erdogan government to "go inward"."Outside the" pursuit of strong and independent diplomacy.It shows that Erdogan's "New Turkish" policy is not only centered on national security, but also lingering with the domestic situation.Due to the crisis of Turkey's economic growth, the high inflation that once soared to 85 % of the unrestrained life made life difficult, the sharp depreciation of the lira currency, and also lost the glory that attracted foreign investment in the past.Erdogan shifted his perspective to the outside, strengthened Turkish nationalism, and transformed into a new driving force for domestic support.

Erdogan's strategy has its depth of thinking.The current international forces are consolidating, and European and American countries are relatively declining. Non -Western countries and emerging countries represented by Russia and China have risen, causing the Middle East to vacuum.The dramatic reversal of Arabic Spring also creates new strategic space and leverage for Turkey with geopolitical dividends.

Secondly, in the past 10 years, Turkey has experienced unprecedented domestic political reorganization.With the support of the new conservatives, Erdogan gradually expanded the control of the Turkish political system and turned to populism. At the same time, the transformation of global order was connected to promote Turkey's foreign policy lever and populist dividends, which became more confidentThe road of autonomy and interferenceism.

Elimination of yourself also brings risks

After 20 years of administration, Erdogan fundamentally changed Turkey's domestic politics and foreign policy. Erdogan wanted to maintain Turkey's status as a member of NATO, while strengthening the trade and geopolitical relationships with Russia.The interests of Turkey and the West and Russia continued to follow the independent diplomatic line of steel wires, just like when describing US -China relations in the US strategic academic community, they often "frenemy", that is, "enemies among friends, friends in the enemy".

Turkey's strategy is actually "selling for the price". Whoever gives is more friendly and interactive, and can only "rent" and cannot "buy".Breaking the price, everything has to be negotiated and greatly fights its own interests.

Turkey has a unique geographical location and controls the channel connecting the Black Sea and the Mediterranean.The Black Sea Fleet in Russia must cooperate with Turkey to enter and exit the Arabic region and the Atlantic Ocean; the United States wants to make strategic blockage from Russia from the West, and it will also agree with Turkey.No matter who and Turkey, the United States and Russia may give strategic gifts for their opponents.

Turkey knows its own value, and has long been in the US -Russian balanced tirler game for a long time.During the Cold War, the Soviet Union tried to turn Turkey into its own satellite country, and Turkey turned to join NATO.After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, under the severe imbalance of the United States and Russia's strength Libra, the United States wanted to completely control Turkey more than once, and even motivated the color revolution against Erdogan in Turkey, but the result accelerated Erdogan to PutinThe footsteps closer.

For small countries, Turkey has enlarged themselves for small countries, and it also brings a lot of risks. There are still many future challenges in Turkey in geopolitics endless games. Is it a new Ottoman or a fat and fat in the outside world.It is also worthwhile in Taiwan.