Ye Dehao: ＂Two inappropriate＂ in Kosovo model

Source: Hong Kong 01

Author: Ye Dehao

On May 29, the Delivian -based North Cosovo demonstration continued, causing 25 NATO peacekeeping forces to be injured, and once again put the outside world's attention to the opposition between Kosovo and Serbia.At the end of February of this year, the peaceful dawn of the normally negative agreement between the two countries had never existed.

Long Road Man long Kosovo Mode

The background of this conflict is the result of the election results of the four mayor of the North Cosovo District, which was forcibly executed by the Kosovo regime.Because the local Cyclide Party is dissatisfied with Kosovo's delay to allow the domestic sezu area to form the "Sai County Community" to implement the content of the Brucel agreement in 2013, and the atmosphere of the population since last year, it was decided to decide the Cup Gebam 4Moon's four district mayor elections.In the end, the voting rate of the election was only 3.5%, and the positions of the four mayor were also won by the Albanian representatives who were willing to vote but accounted for a very small number of local population.

The dissatisfaction with the Kosovose people, Prime Minister Albin Kurti ignored it to force the election results on May 26 to escort the mayor of Albania to occupy the mayor's office, which detonated the local Cyllars' people.For violent demonstration, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic also put the army in a state of combat alertness and moved close to Kosovo's border.

In 2008, the United States and major European countries, which supported Kosovo's announcement of independence, issued a statement to criticize the Kosovo administration.The U.S. State Department has more strictly criticized Kosovo's officials to ignore the advice of the United States and European partners, unnecessary upgrading the tension, destroying the efforts of Western promotion and normalization, warning that its actions will bring consequences to the bilateral relations between the United States and KosovoEssence

This is not the first time that the Prime Minister of Kosovo Kuriti has caused the Saito demonstration.Last summer, Kefang announced that the Serbians entering Kosovo will be issued in and out of the country and cancel the effectiveness of the license plate issued by Serbia, which has caused the subsequent conflict that has not yet ended.

At the end of February of this year, the dawn of the opposition between the two sides appeared.Under the mediation of the European Union, Wugic and Kurotti verbally agreed with the normalization of the relationship between the two parties, which stipulated that the two parties respect each other's independence, autonomy, territorial integrity and self -determination.Serbia, which will never acknowledge Kosovo's independence, will not prevent Kosovo from joining any international organization.

However, under the opposition of domestic nationalists, Wugci refused to sign for a real, once claimed that "the agreement does not exist", and the legal recognition of Kosovo's independence and Kosovo joined the United Nations as its inferior bottom line.

In conjunction with the violent conflict that broke out again today, the solution of the Kosovo problem has a long way to go.

Is Kosovo precedent for Ukraine?

In 1999, the NATO troops were involved in the Kosovo war on the grounds of preventing race cleaning. They attacked Yugoslavia and sent peacekeeping troops to take over Kosovo. In 2008, Western countries supported Kosovo to announce independence.It refers to the premise of stopping humanitarian crimes or disasters. Third -party countries can adopt military operations without the authorization of the United Nations Security Council to intervene in other countries, and even violate other countries 'sovereignty, ignore other countries' opposition to recognize that some of its territory has become an independent country.The International Court (ICJ) also determined that Kosovo announced that independence did not violate international law.

Although Russia has been standing behind Serbia and does not recognize Kosovo's independence, its international court judges did not think that Kosovo announced its independence in compliance with international law, but from the 2008 Georgia-Russian war against the South Ossetia and the South Ossetia andAbkhazia's sovereignty acknowledged that by 2014, he was involved in Donbas (Donbas) in eastern Ukraine and the mergers of Crimea by military and referendum.This "Kosovo precedent" is quoted as its basis for its international law.

In 2008, then Russian President Dmitri Medvedev said, "Western countries rushed to acknowledge the declaration of Kosovo's independence from Serbia, and we argued unanimously before and after.Zi people and South Oussean people ... said that it is effective for the Kosovo Albanians but it has no effect on them. "

In 2014, Putin said, "The Crimean government quotes the precedent of Kosovo -a precedent established by our Western colleagues in a similar situation."

In April 2022, when Putin met with the Secretary -General of the United Nations, Putin once again quoted the 2010 international court judgment and Western countries generally recognized Kosovo's sovereignty to explain that it acknowledged that Donbas was independent of international law.

Looking for the basis for international law for national behavior, in the state of anarchy and essentially weak meat and strong food, it is largely just a public relations operation.Regarding Putin's "Kosovo Mode" to the acknowledgment of some territorial sovereignty and independence of some territorial sovereignty in other countries, and even directly incorporating Russia, Western arguments can often distinguish Kosovo's cases from the objects of Russia.Harz, Donbas, and (especially) Crimea did not encounter racial cleaning faced by Kosovo Albanians, and stated that even if Kosovo precedes are applicable, there is no basis for Russian law to incorporate other land into the country.territory.

However, the most important reason why Kosovo's precedent is not applicable to today's Russia and Ukraine situation is that Russia is more than Russia's Ukraine with Western support. The military strength is far less than the disparity between NATO and the former Yugoslavia.Today, more than a year after Putin quoted Kosovo's precedent for more than a year, although Russia has merged Donbas states into Russia through the so -called referendum, Russia has failed to occupy the territory of these two states through military operations.Bakhmut (Bakhmut, who lost at least tens of thousands of soldiers in October, was about 70,000 before the war, which was about 70,000, equivalent to the size of the Tsuen Wan District).

The Kosovo model with Kosovo's precedent as the basis of the expansion of the territory is not applicable. The reason is not the law, but that Russia does not have enough strength to implement it.This is the "first inappropriate" of the Kosovo model.

Russia and Ukraine stepped on Kosovo back?

"The second inappropriate" is related to the future trend of the Russian and Ukraine War.

Since the development of the war, everyone knows that it is difficult for Ukraine to drive the Russian army from their territory and ensure that the other party has not invaded again by force, and Russia also has determined to be determined to fight for a long time.However, the Ukrainian territory that has occupied and invested in Russia in Jurisse is exchanged for peace.Therefore, the war of war has been delayed for a long time, and the war of war between the two sides has gradually decreased, and other domestic issues have become more preferred. The situation of Russia and Ukraine is indeed possible to develop the general situation of imaging Serbia and Kosovo.In the Russian territory, Ukraine has kept it in silence in law.

After the long -term suspension of warfire, after everyone accepts reality, the two sides may slowly take a step back to the normalization of the relationship slowly under the international mediation.

On nuclear weapons, Ukraine is of course absolutely disadvantaged, but from the perspective of nuclear threats for more than a year, nuclear weapons seem to be an eternal threat.And if a threat can always be a threat, it can no longer constitute a threat.

On conventional weapons, the West has limited military aids that have blocked Russia, and the West has recently begun to show long-term deployment such as F-16 to indicate that continuous military support of Ukraine will be visible for a long time and long-term and long-termIn the case, the military gap between Ukraine and Russia will only narrow.

There is no absolute gap between strength, even if both Russia and Ukraine are "tired", like Kosovo and Serbia's long -term political confrontation, Ukraine cannot actually give up the goal of "recovering the soil" like Serbia, so the war is still stillIt will be maintained in a state of touch.Not only the relationship is normalized, it cannot be mentioned, and the ceasefire is difficult to continue.

The situation with the essence of Kosovo, which has absolute strength as a prerequisite for peace, is also difficult to avoid conflict, not to mention Russia and Ukraine without absolute strength.