Source: Zhongshi News Network

Author: Chen Guanan

Recently, three poll agencies have released the latest presidential election polls with each other.According to ETTODAY polls, Lai Qingde's support rate was 36.4%, Hou Youyi 27.7%, and Ke Wenzhe 23.1%; the polls of the normal National Cultural Foundation showed that Lai 34%, Hou 23%, and Ke 23%; the Meilimao Electronics News showed that Lai 35.8%andKe 25.9%and Hou 18.3%.

The trend of

Three -portal poll data is the same and different.The same thing is that Lai Qingde is indeed the leader of the current presidential election. However, at the same time, even if Hou and Ke's support rates have changed, Lai's support rate has always been around 35 % and cannot rise.

In terms of the pattern of the three -footed governor, in the case of Lai Fixing maintained the support rate of 30 % of the polls, there are only two types of campaign results, namely "433" and "442".Lai wants to win, and naturally hopes to appear 433. Hou and Ke Qiang are equivalent.If you want to lose, there must be a consistent, obvious, and sustainable difference between Hou and Ke to form a situation of 442.

In terms of these three polls, a Hou Keiping hand, a Hou Ying, and a Ke Ying have no obvious victory and defeat. Therefore, the current election pattern is closer to 433,Instead of 442.

Who can show a stronger momentum between Hou Youyi and Ke Wenzhe, produce part of the abandonment, and become the side who can compete with Lai?

For the beautiful island polls that have caused discussions from all walks of life, the key to the reason why Ke Wenzhe surpassed Hou Youyi is that the support rate of the Kuomintang party has dropped sharply from 20.5%in early May to 13.6%, which is seven percentage points.It is also roughly equivalent to the decrease in Hou; secondly, different from all walks of life, Ko's pan -blue support has not actually improved significantly, but from 18.2%slightly to 17.9%.

What ethnic groups are the votes added by Ke Wenzhe?Surprisingly, the support rate of the people's party supporters increased from 75.7%to 85.5%, and the overall support rate of about 3%was increased; secondly, the support rate of middle voters increased from 19.3%to 25.3%.

In other words, the main cause of the decline in Hou Youyi's support rate is still the collapse of the pan -blue basic disk, and the second reason is that Hou's decline in condensation of pan -blue supporters.These two reasons are naturally related to the impact of the political situation after the recruitment.Therefore, for the Kuomintang, in order to recover the support rate, it is bound to respond to the expectations and demands of pan -blue supporters in order to further compete with Ke Wenzhe's attractiveness to middle voters.

From the data of the ETTODAY polls, it is quite interesting that Lai Qingde's condensation of the DPP supporters is 92.1%and the green is 86%; Ke Wenzhe's condensation for the people's party is 91.5%; although Hou Youyi, although Hou YouyiThe degree of condensation for the Kuomintang was 84.1%, but it was only 56.3%of the pan -blue, but Hou's overall support rate was actually 4.6%ahead of Ke.In other words, from the perspective of ETTODAY's polls, as long as Hou enhances pan -blue cohesion, it still has a considerable degree of support for growth.

On the other hand, for Ke Lai, the current problem of supporting the ceiling is faced with 442.From the perspective of most polls, Ke's support is mostly in the 20 to 39 years old voters. To break through, in addition to winning blue and middle voters, it is necessary to expand to the elevable ethnic groups.However, whether it will affect the youth votes when fighting for the age, in fact, it also determines Ke's ceiling height.

Generally speaking, Lai Qingde's ceiling is already clear; the key to the election campaign lies in the competition between Hou and Ke.Ke Wenzhe's breakthrough point is from 40 to 59 -year -olds. On the contrary, Hou Youyi ’s key defense groups; while Hou's current goal is to win the pan -blue group, otherwise Ke is the main target of Ke.Whoever can defend and defend will fight against Lai Qingde in the second half of the election campaign.