Source: Hong Kong 01

Author: Ye Dehao

On May 24th, the Republican Party, the Governor of Donald Trump, who is considered the most powerful to challenge Trump, is considered to be the Twitter Spaces on -site sound broadcasting method announced for the President of 2024 with Twitter Spaces.Election, Twitter owner Elon Musk personally presided over.One is the 44 -year -old Trump's Republican Star, and the other is a talented talent for the left -wing and gods and turning Twitter into a right -wing lecture. It can be regarded as seamless cooperation.

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The problem lies with the most unprecedented technical problems. The sound live broadcast originally scheduled to start at 6 pm in the Eastern Time, under the confusion of various breaks and broken lines, it will start after more than 20 minutes later.The number of online people also fell from more than 600,000 to about 300,000.Although De Santis's campaign team tried to change the public opinion direction with the publicity of "supporters passionate, even the Internet was damaged.""#Desaster" hashtag on social media (press: playing with the surname of De Santis, referring to "disaster") immediately fry.

Mask who fired 80 % of employees after acquiring Twitter, in addition to being broken by Desanis's inspiring Ruyi, it will also face the debtor's further doubts about whether Twitter, which can be operated by debt.

Compared with the moment of the Election of the Democratic Party in the mid -November election in the mid -November election last November, today's De Santis has greatly lagged behind Trump in polls.According to the comprehensive poll of RealclearPolitics, Trump's leading advantage has rebounded sharply from 13 percentage points in January this year to 34 percentage points.

At this moment, the Republican voters have gradually diluted the memory of the Trump's disappointment of the Republican election, and Trump's lawsuit has also made the "political persecution victim" in the eyes of Republicans.At the same time, analysis also generally believes that the Trump's campaign team has become more and more professional in recent times. Among them, in 2016 and 2020, they helped Trump to host the Florida campaign project victory, and in 2018Susie Wiles, a political adviser to win the governor's election at the beginning, was eventually devoted to the Trump camp.

No Trump's Trumpism

For a long time, De Santis's self -positioning is "without Trump's Trumpism". He hopes to promote to the party and voters more likely to win the election than Trump and implement Trump more.Police policy.The governance of Florida has become a "demonstration unit" in De Santis.

In addition to consolidating the trend of population inflow with "lying and resistance" and "the most free state in the United States" during the epidemic period, De Santis has also implemented a series of conservative cultural war policies, including prohibiting schools from discussing LGBTQ++Fully issues such as gender issues (that is, "GAY", prohibit school professor from "Critical Race theory", restricting the university's "diversified equal tolerance" activity, support or appoint conservative characters as school management positions, then clean upLiberal educators, send illegal immigrants to Liberty State, implement the six weeks of pregnancy abortion ban, allow people to "hidden guns" without special appraisal, cancel the death penalty judgment required for the jury, and the government is prohibited from the environment from the environment to the environment./Social and Enterprise Governance (ESG) considerations, investing in the special status of the paradise because Disney expressed opposition to the "GAY" law, and so on.

In conjunction with the "countercurrent victory" in Florida in the midterm election, these cultural war issues have made Desambis get national attention with Florida's "political achievements" and become Trump's biggest challenge.

both populist and pragmatic

At the same time, De Santis, who is in the history of Yale and the degree in Harvard School of Law School, has not only the population of populism. He also implements the academic volume system so that parents can choose through the market mechanism outside the public school to choose fromSchools that are most suitable for children; promoting environmental conservation of Everglades through administrative orders; greatly providing teachers' salaries; implementation of infringement laws and insurance reforms that are considered to benefit the insurance industry.

The former subordinates of De Santis even claimed that De Santis was very smart. "You might not give him 90 pages of a briefing at 9 pm. He has to come to all the original documents.You meet him at 7 o'clock tomorrow. The edge of the entire file is notes and folding. He has digested it and will ask very good questions. "Trump, of course, has a great gap.

As Trump was still supported by the basic voters of Republican Party, De Santis did not dare to criticize Trump freely, but dared to attack Trump indirectly at the small place.For example, when Trump was charged with "Pukou Fee" to Panxing, De Santong said that he did not know what this behavior was involved, so he could not evaluate the case;At the time of Iowa, Trump canceled the rally because of the tornado forecast, and De Santis immediately arranged to hold an event near his assembly venue to show his attention to the state's voters; in Ai Ai; in Ai Ai; in Ai Ai;During Owa, De Santis also said, "We must refuse the culture of our party in recent years." It is also obviously reminding that voters Trump has allowed the Republican Party to lose the three nationals in 2018, 2018, and 2022.election.

Many wealthy merchants who support the Republican Party seem to see the perfect combination of being able to play civilian to win the grassroots level and pragmatically implement conservative policies in De Santis.The burden of Trump launched a new page for the Republican Party.

Cultural war of fire

However, after half a year of "informal election", De Santis's shortcomings are becoming more and more obvious.First of all, in order to win the cultural war supported by the Republican basic support, Desanis has affected its pragmatic side.For example, its "revenge" to Disney has taken Disney to take the opportunity to cancel the office investment plan of up to $ 1 billion (S $ 1.3 billion) in Florida, which has lost 2,000 employment positions with an average annual salary of $ 120,000;At the same time, Disney also sued De Santis's politics to court, saying that its actions violated the freedom of remarks protected by the first amendment to the US Constitution; and the six -week abortion ban in Florida did not match the mainstream public opinion in the United States.

Danteis, who was elected governor in 2018, dared to challenge himself. Trump has always believed that this is a kind of betrayal. Since the end of last year, he has "changed his flower" for De Santis., And constantly make public criticism and scolding.The controversy between De Santis and Disney, and even its more extreme attitude on abortion, has also become Trump's attacking topic.Florida lost 2,000 employment positions. "De Santis did not help his disabled shadow campaign for Disney's failure war, and now it has damaged the economy of Florida."Trump also pointed out that he was the hero who overthrew the abortion of the Constitution, but criticized the six -week abortion ban "too harsh" (pressed: Republican recently lost some elections due to anti -abortion problems in some Central and Western regions)Essence

Different from Trump, which has the advantage of "personality worship" at the grassroots level of the Republican Party, De Santis must build his support within the party through the image of "cultural warrior".But these cultural wars that have to fight are constantly weakening the original pragmatic image and the advantages of the election.

In recent months, many Republican politicians seem to have seen this and have begun to publicly invest in the Trump camp -so far, Trump has received one -quarter RepublicanThe Congress of the Congress and the five -fifths of the Republican Parliament Senators endorsed; in comparison, De Santis had only seven members and two senators expressed support.Among the 20 Republican parliament members of Florida, Trump ended with 11 endorsements, while De Santis had only two.

Personal defects: not cool but cold

Another more serious weakness of De Santis is his character.Unlike Trump, who likes to be stubborn in the crowd, Trump is not good at this "Retail Politics".Trump, who was questioned, was very different.

Whether it is directly communicating with the general public, or when dealing with other politicians inside and outside the party, De Santis feels cold, unlimited, serious, and high, far from Trump's long -sleeved good dance.Even the election film he released on the 24th, even if there is a background music to create an atmosphere, his speaking style makes people feel dull and boring.

Trump also joked with De Santis's personality defects: "He is very urgent to need a personality transplant surgery, but as far as I know, there is no medical (this surgery)"

Politico, a US political news website, also discusses this.The article claims that De Santis feels "not cool but cold", and reporters reported that his reporters have gradually set his personality. "Even if Desambis engaged in a media activity, he came to hold a bottle for a bottle to give it to the bottle to give it to the bottle to give it to the bottle for it.Newborn kittens are fed, and the media can still find their cold evidence. "

In voting democracy based on subjective feelings, De Santis's personality defect is his biggest loss point.If this election is generally running in ZOOM in the 2020 epidemic, he may be able to confuse the level, but in the constant public activities, the difference between De Santis and Trump will become more and more obvious.

Trumpists without the charm of Trump are not very likely to defeat Trump.And people also ask, if we can choose Trump himself, why do we choose someone who is not Trump and wants to pretend to be Trump?

Strong Trump Challenger of Bynden Challenger

In the list of Republican candidates who have been announced for elections, De Santis is already the most likely to defeat Trump.Other candidates, if they are not being indirectly strived to become Trump's vice presidential candidates, such as the former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, the only African Republican Senator Tim Scott, etc.Pocked by running characters, such as the Indian entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who advocates that the U.S. forces to scan the drugs and abolish the Federal Investigation Agency (FBI).Other people who may be running and not announced the election, such as former Vice President Mike Pence, are difficult to run out of the Trump's Republican Party.

Ironically, the reason why the Democrats almost supported by Biden were selected, and the assumption was that the Republican opponent would be Trump, which is about the same age as Biden.If the Republican primary election is the Demantis 30 years younger than Biden, the Democratic Party will be chaotic.Analysis generally believes that De Santis's "age card" will greatly help him defeat Bayon.

De Santis's tragedy is that although he is a strong Bynden challenger, he is a weak Trump challenger.If there is no mutation in the people, De Santis will only be a few accompanying runners, and it will be Trump himself in the end.By 2024, the Republican Party may face the fourth election that failed because of Trump.The tragedy of De Santis is also the tragedy of the Republican Party.