Former US President Trump, who is winning, decided to "fight again" and participate in the 2024 presidential election. He criticized the Bayeon government to destroy the US economy, claiming that the campaign was to make the United States great again, and said that he would "save the country." But whether Trump can enter the White House again, depending on whether the Republicans are willing to continue to bet on him.
In 2020, former US President Trump's re -election failed, but he still did not recognize the defeat so far, referring to the Democratic opponent Bayidon stole the president's throne.The political madman announced on November 15 that he would participate in the 2024 presidential election, and the scholars were not surprised.
ADAM Garfinkle, a special visiting scholar at the Nanyang Institute of Technology Rajelekan University of Technology, said that it is still two years before the 2024 presidential election. Trump announced so earlytwo.
Gentakle said in a telegram of Lianhe Zaobao and said: "It is estimated that the lawsuit Trump believes that once he becomes a presidential candidate, the Ministry of Justice cannot mention him.Pu is desperate to become the focus of everyone and becoming a news figure. He will attract the greatest attention through all means. "
Du Qiang, an associate professor of Politics at the School of Social Sciences of Singapore Management University, believes that Trump announced early that he was running for the potential "challengers" in the Republican Party, especially the Disandis, who was elected as the governor of Florida,Essence
Du Qiang pointed out that in the just -concluded mid -term elections, the "red wave" expected by the Republican Party did not appear, and the Democratic Party continued to control the Senate.In the House of Representatives, the Republican Party seems to be barely maintained.To make matters worse, Trump's supporting scholars and governor candidates were defeated in the election, showing that the former president was no longer a guarantee for victory.More and more Republicans even publicly stated that Trump's influence is dragging the Republican Party.
Du Qiang told Lianhe Zaobao: "But Trump still believes that he has extensive support among Republicans. He chose to ignore these frustrations and announce the election according to the original plan."
According to the polls, so far, Trump's support in the Republican Party is still unable to shake.An October poll of the US news website "Politico" showed that Trump's support among Republicans is more than 50%and De Santis is about 21%.To this end, Trump must maintain such a situation. If the president is not announced early, the voice of opposition to him may continue to ferment, which will definitely pose a threat to his support.
Du Qiang also said: "In the past two years, Trump has been lied to his supporters that he has won in the last election, and he is the legal president of the United States. Therefore, if he can't come out this time, heIt is equivalent to admitting that he lost to Biden in 2020. "
Greathr is also a member of the Consultant Group of the Institute of Foreign Policy of the US Think Tank. He believes that Trump has a huge judicial obstacle to run for elections.
He pointed out that Trump is currently trapped in the federal and state -level institutions.The House of Representatives investigated the special committee of the riots of Congress Mansion on January 6 last year and issued a subpoena to him; the Ministry of Justice brought confidential documents to the Haihu Manor after his departure from office.Trump Group's tax fraud case.
Trump wants to borrow the election to get rid of the lawsuit
Gentakle said that these judicial investigations may lead to the qualifications of Trump's loss of presidents again, especially the FBI in the Haihu Manor of the Haihu Manor in Florida, Trump, to find a large number of government confidential documentsEssence"It may face fines or imprisonment, or even lose qualifications for public office. This means that Trump's qualifications to run for president again in 2024 may be canceled."
However, Du Qiang believes that Trump's re -election will at least complicate any decision to mention criminal charges.In order to prevent reputation from being investigated and even caused by prison, the best way is to successfully serve as President in 2024.
Du Qiang pointed out in the email to reply to Lianhe Zaobao: "If Trump becomes a presidential candidate, he can tell the Democratic Party's investigation as his political persecution, or you can use various judicial means to avoid it."
Trump's former adviser Conference said: "One of the important reasons for Trump's announcement of the election is that he was afraid of being raised by criminal control. He believes that the supporters will protect him from prosecutor's control after the president."
But former US federal prosecutor Mariodi disclosed this that the US Department of Justice has launched a criminal investigation on Trump, announcing that participating in the election will "not make the Ministry of Justice change decision."
being abandoned by the gold master and the media
It is understood that the US Department of Justice usually stops investigations within 60 days before the election to avoid being prosecuted for affecting the election results.But now there is still a long time before the Presidential election in 2024, which is enough for the relevant departments to continue to investigate Trump.
In addition to judicial investigations, Trump's re -election president may also face financial pressure.After the Republican elections are surprising, some well -known "big golden masters" have switched to support the Republican star and the Governor of Florida De Santis.
Two days after Trump officially announced the election, a number of "Gold Lord" publicly stated that he no longer supports the former President of the rich.According to the National Broadcasting Corporation's Business Channel (CNBC), Ronald Lauder, the heir of Trump's university alumni and friends, and the heir of the well -known cosmetics group Estee Lauder, revealed that "there is no plan to support Trump."Although Lauder did not disclose his future donation intention, his financial records showed that he had already put a heavy fund in the two governor elections in De Santis.
Su Shimin, an important donor of Trump, and CEO of Blackstone Group, also said that he no longer supports Trump and said that "the Republican Party is time to turn his attention to the new generation of leaders."
In addition, the close relationship between the media empire and Trump, a media empire of the American media tycoon Murdoch, also changed after the midterm election.Multiple media rarely collaborated on Trump, describing him as the "big loser" of this election, and criticized his judgment to get worse and worse.
The Wall Street Journal, which has an important influence in Murdoch News Group, lost Pennsylvania Pennsylvania to publish the editorial the next day, saying that Trump was the "biggest loser" of the Republican Party, saying that the Republican party's performance in the midterm election was disappointing.The New York Post, a subsidiary of the News Group, joked with Trump's homonym on the front page, and painted Trump as a rhyme of nursery rhymes on the brick wall.Great Fall) and the Republican Party failed to defeat the Democratic Party in the midterm election.
Always make people unexpected scholars: Do not underestimate Trump
Although Trump asked the path of the president's throne, it seems difficult, but he still has a wide range ofThe Republican grassroots people support, and hold tens of millions of dollars of campaign funds.How many victories have Trump have this time, and the scholars interviewed said "hard to say."
It is generally believed that American elections often have great uncertainty, especially far away from the presidential election that is now in 2024. It is now speculated that Trump is expected to play the Presidential election on behalf of the Republican Party, and even the president again is still the president.Too early.
Gentakle said: "Many Americans may think that seeing Trump's performance in this mid -term election, he is no longer the Republican preferred presidential candidate, but the result may be surprising." Du Qiang also believes that there are too many unpredictable variables.He said: "When it comes to US politics, everything is possible. In the 2016 election, many people, including me, did not expect that Trump would be a presidential candidate for the Republican Party, let alone that he would be optimistic about him to win.Choose. But it turns out that Trump is always unexpected. It is best not to underestimate this person ... "
Trump must first defeat De Santis's strong challenge within the party to have the opportunity to confront Bynden again.But according to the latest polls, two -thirds of Americans do not want Biden and Trump to run for presidents.
Bynden has not yet announced whether it will strive for re -election, but only said that it will make a decision early next year.Will there be a situation where Trump and Biden will face again, maybe it will not be known until next year.
Potential competitors each hold chips
According to the Washington Rose analysis, the Governor of Florida, De Santis, was the first candidate for the Republican Presidential candidate in 2024, and Trump ranked second.Former Vice President Pence and Governor of Virginia, Yang Jin, followed closely, and former Secretary of State Pompeo ranked eighth.Considering the age of candidates, De Santis (44 years old) and Yang Jin (54 years old) were regarded as favorable competitors nominated by the Presidential election in the Republican Party in 2024.
Ron Desantis, Governor of Florida
Desandis, who performed brightly in the midterm elections, is undoubtedly the biggest challenge facing Trump in the Republican Party.Florida was the largest "Swing State" in the United States, but De Santis successfully re -elected with a 19%overwhelming advantage, turning the selection of the former pure blue (the color of the Democratic Party) into red.After the successful re -election, De Santis became a "Republican star", which attracted the attention of the "big gold master".
De Santis's political claims are the same as Trump, taking the right -wing conservative route.He opposed the acceptance of refugees, abortion, resolutely defending the right to hold guns, opposing the government's excessive interference, and supporting tax cuts.He also uses Trump's good style, but does not have Trump's political burden.
The Republican Party lost the House of Representatives, the Senate and the White House during Trump's office. The candidates he supported were also not performing well at the just -concluded mid -term election.Some people think that the Republican Party is time to get rid of Trump.
De Santis has always avoided whether he intends to run for the president, but it shows that he "has just started fighting."Trump has warned De Santis not to compete for the president with him, otherwise he will announce some news that is not conducive to De Santis.
The President of the Republican Jewish Alliance National Chairman Corman said that Trump is still the leading force of the Republican Party, but the Republican nomination process has just begun, and others have the opportunity to win nominations.According to people familiar with the matter, some Republicans are trying to persuade party members to concentrate on helping De Santis.
Former Vice President Mike Pence
Another potential competitor of Trump is the former Deputy Prime Minister Pence.He used to be Trump's deputy and "the most loyal partner", and his higher popularity also allowed him to have an advantage in the primaries.
It is rumored that Pence intends to compete for the 2024 presidential election, but he has not yet expressed his statement.His response to Trump's campaign again was: "We should have better candidates."
Glenn Youngkin
Yang Jin won in the Governor of Virginia last year, becoming the first Republicans who have been elected in the state for the first time in the state, and won the strong support of the donor.
Yang Jin has not yet disclosed whether he will run for the president in 2024, but he went to the United States to help the Republican election during the mid -term election, expanding his voter foundation.
Similar to De Santis, Trump is also quite sensitive to Yang Jin. He repeatedly attacked the governor and also made Yang Jin's name as an article, saying it sounds like Chinese.
Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
During the four years of the White House, Secretary of State Pompeo was one of Trump's most loyal consultants and cabinet members.But since then he has partnered with Trump and has been seeking to enhance his political image after his administration.
It is understood that Pepeo is also preparing for the president.He previously said that the Republican Party needed "stable hands" and needed "distant vision and excellence, and he would not sink in the past.This speech was obviously ridiculous Trump.
