US midterm election series
Special
According to the history of US political history, in the midterm election of the presidential party, the parties to the president have always been brushed off by voters, losing their control of the two hospitals of the public, so that the president of the president becomes a "lame duck" in power.More business and quantities.
If the Republican "loses" midterm elections or performance is not as good as expected, such as failure to win the control of the two hospitals and fail to win key official positions in the critical swing states, the same midterm election is defeated.
Non -mainstream candidate quality will affect Republican victory
Conservative voters in the Midwest of the United States believe that the Republican or Trump's "defeat", like the incident of Mountain riots last year, may repeat and even worsen into civil strife.
Republican systems are really worried that the quality of non -mainstream candidates supported by Trump will affect the victory of the Republican Party.
For example, the TV host and the famous doctor Mehmet OZ, a TV seat in the Senate Pennsylvania, is considered a carpet speculator (Carpetbagger), which is considered uncomfortable and often misunderstood;J.D. Vance is a risk investor who spend most adults in Silicon Valley and has similar problems; the former rugby star Herschel Walker, who is running for the Senate Georgia seat, is facing domestic violence, concealed his psychological state, etc.Question; Blake Masters, who runs for the State State of Arizona, is behind the Democratic opponent who may lose this election.
Brukins Society Elaine KamArck, an American election political researcher, wrote in a commentary article: "Trump has been resisting the Republican Party's establishment in the preliminary season of this year, so as to put his own brand in the party.If the Democrats continue to control the Senate after November and even get one or two more seats, the Republicans can only blame Trump. "
If Trump is blamed, he will even take him to run for 2024 Republican presidential candidates to win.Many Republican leaders such as the anti -Trunch flag player Liz Chenney, former vice president Pence, former Secretary of State Pompeo, former New Jersey Governor Christie, and former U.S. former representative of the United Nations, etc., will return to Trump to return toThe White House Road brings more obstacles.
However, there are also political observer that regardless of the performance of the Republican and Trump -supported candidates in the midterm, it will not affect Trump's supporters' loyalty to him.
Political Analysts of Georgia College and State University, Chrille, said: "Although they cannot be re -elected, they face two impeaches, about 10 serious criminal investigations, and scandals that have been knocked down by countless political leaders.Trump is still the leader of the Republican Party. Trump's support in the party is very affordable and will not be damaged by any performance of the Republican Party in November this year. "
The performance of the Republican Party in the midterm election may still be very good.If most of the candidates supported by Trump wins the midterm elections, Trump will return to the White House to be much flat, and he will also become the dominant force of the Republican party.
The Republicans who believe that "the result of the results of the Presidential election was stolen by the Democratic Party" (that is, the so -called "Trump Lie") entered the state and the federal governments at all levels, and will brand a more conservative mark on the US politics.The three -right system will be further conservative.
"American democracy is in danger"
Broadcasting Corporation, a reporter in the United States, interviewed Arizona, Wyoming, Georgia, and Pennsylvania in the Midwest of the United States and Eastern in the East this summer.It may be broken with the Republican Party, and incite supporters have launched more serious civil strife than last year's mountain riots, and "the situation may become very bad."
A couple in Arizona even stated that they would pick up their weapons, and they thought it was the best choice.An election official in Georgia said that after the 2020 election, they faced the threat of Trump's loyal supporters; she believed that the situation in mid -year elections would be worse.
Katty Kay analysis pointed out that if the Republicans of "Trump Lies" enter the system and change the election mechanism to ensure that conservatives win, the Liberals will not convince the results of the election after the 2024 election.It is also said that their election results were stolen.
She said: "I span thousands of miles across this country. Obviously, the two sides are based on very different reasons, but they think that American democracy is in danger, and the two sides accused each other.There is no clear solution. I heard people express anger, anxiety, and even talk about violence throughout the country. "
Hong Youren, a researcher at Nanyang University of Science and Technology Rajelenan International Research Institute, did not rule out Trump and some Republicans that once again threw out the "theft of the election results".
He said in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post: "The mid -term election will be a rehearsal for the 2024 presidential election, especially if they have not won the election or poor performance, will we see Trump and some Republicans throw again againThe "Election results of the election" after the 2020 election is stolen? This may not be eliminated. "
Michael Kazin, a professor at the Department of History of Georgetown University, believes that the above concerns are a bit overwhelming.In an interview, he said that if the Republican Party did not regain the House of Representatives and even did not even regain the Senate, Trump and his 30 % of loyal supporters may shout "fraud."
However, he said that the Republican Congress leader will not agree with this.He also believes that as long as the two parties continue to compete in democratic elections, they will not want to compete for national dominance through force, and the United States can avoid violent conflicts.
