After the Indonesian Election Commission officially announced the election results at the end of the month, Indonesia's President Prabervo has launched a comprehensive work.Plabowavo has won two political parties, which belongs to the hostile camp, to join his ruling alliance, which also locks more than 70 % of the next parliament.However, Plabovo did not fully control the situation of the parliament. The key variable was the Democratic Party who had the right to appoint the power of the Speaker to choose from the government and Xiaye.
The Democratic Party, commonly known as the "Niu Tou Party", won 16.7 % of the votes in the parliamentary elections earlier this year. Although it is lower than the previous election, it is believed to keep it in the throne of the leader of the Indonesian People's Representative Conference.Another benefit that follows is that you can appoint the Speaker.
However, the Democratic Party seems to have no intention of joining Plaboor's governing alliance.In other words, despite the masters of the Plaboor government, despite the majority of seats, they still have to listen to the procedure of the discussion.
According to the relevant laws and regulations of Indonesia's legislative agencies, the speaker should come from the party with the most seats.The Indonesian Election Commission has not officially announced the number of seats won in the parliamentary elections. In addition to depending on the party's votes, it depends on the distribution of votes.The position of the party.Therefore, the next speaker is very likely to come from the struggle Democratic Party.Of course, the premise is that other parties do not fight.
The Special circumstances of the Indonesian Parliament in 2014 had lost the position of the largest party.In 2014, although Zoko, who was running for the Democratic Party on behalf of the struggle, won the presidential election, the Democratic Party of the struggle also became the largest party of the parliament, but because the seats in charge of the Alliance Party failed to be less than half, the situation of the Dae -wandevity was formed.As a result, after some operations of the opposition party, the relevant laws and regulations were referred to as MD3 through resolutions, and the election procedure of the Speaker was stiffly added to the voting session of the parliament, and finally relying on most votes to recommend the Gorka Party Setya Novanto to serve asspeaker.
Although the draft of the MD3 A decree appears again on the agenda of the Indonesian parliament in 2024, scholars generally believe that in order to maintain the stability of the situation, Plabovo will not shot to deprive the struggle for the only Democratic Party."Consolation Award".Several major political parties in the ruling alliance have also publicly stated that they did not intend to compete for the position of speaker.
However, letting the representative of the Democratic Party in the struggle may have a certain obstacle to Plaboor's implementation of policies.Political researcher of the Indonesian National Research and Innovation Agency, Wasisto Raharjo Jati, analyzed the Lianhe Zaobao: "If the Speaker belongs to the wild camp, the work will be difficult."
Although the ruling alliance still needs to fight the Democratic Party
Plabovo is therefore expected to continue to fight for the Democratic Party to join the governing alliance.Edbert Gani, a researcher at the Indonesian Strategy and International Research Center, said in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that Plabovo's main goal was to maintain political stability, so he imitated Zoko to form a major league.If the largest party of the parliament does not enter the cabinet, "it may disrupt the stability of his search for."
Yanuar Nugroho, a senior researcher at the Vesot Isa Eastern South Asian Research Institute, also believes that Plabobavo draws multiple parties to organize the government to consolidate power.In an interview, he said: "Plabovo tries to avoid political challenges in the administrative department and parliament, because this may affect his government operation. His approach is to establish a large alliance as possible.Learn from.
In the parliamentary elections in February this year, a total of eight political parties reached the threshold for the minimum votes required to enter the parliament.At present, Plaboor's governing alliances have six political parties, including the National Democratic Party (NASDEM) and the National Revitalization Party (PKB), which just expressed support for Plaboor on April 25.In the presidential election, these two parties originally supported Plaboor's opponent and former Chief of Jakarta Special Administrative Region Anis, but after Plabovo's victory was determined, they announced the conversion camp.
Yinu Alle described the National Democratic Party and the National Revival Party with "more pragmatic and speculative", saying that they did not want to become the core of power."In Indonesia's politics, the ideology of morality and general sense is never a real consideration. Not to mention the National Democratic Party and the National Revitalization Party, there are many conflicts of interest in their leaders (positions in their positions)."
Albert also analyzes that the nature of Indonesia's politics cannot be separated from political parties to obtain national resources.Shimono is not an attractive choice, because this means that political parties cannot obtain the resources required to continue the operation of political machines."Some political parties, such as the National Democratic Party, have no experience in the opposition party at all. In recent years, the National Revival Party has strongly supported the ruling alliance. Its politicians are also subject to government positions, which is likely to increase its influence on the local area."
In contrast, the experience of the Democratic Party is different.Before Zoko came to power in 2014, the Democratic Party of the struggle failed as the opposition party.After the defeated presidential candidate of the Democratic Party's election, the defeated Guan Gander, the former governor of China, has stated that he is unwilling to join the governing alliance, but whether this reflects the entire party's position to be observed.
Albert said: "They did have done well as the opposition party before, but in recent years, they have benefited from the core of the government's decision -making."
If the Democratic Party finally entered the cabinet, the seats under the control of the governing alliance led by Plaboor are expected to expand to 90 %, which is larger than the Super League led by Sonko in the past and a half years.After the Indonesian National Mission Party (PAN) announced in 2021, it was announced to join the Zoko government, and only 80 % of the seats held by the ruling alliance.It wasn't until February this year that the PARTAI DEMOKRAT was accepted into the cabinet, and Zoko's control over the parliament increased to 90 %.
How to mediate in Plabovo, a tight relationship with the United States and the United States and Canadi, is the key
However, whether it can be invited to the Democratic Party into the cabinet depends to a large extent on how Plaboor is in a central mediation between the party leader Michardi and Zako.
After Zoko was elected president, his relationship with Meijiadi became more and more tense.Although Zoko did not make public statements in this election, he obviously supported Plaboor instead of Gandhar, which was not elected by his party, which caused the relationship between him and the Democratic Party into a trough.After the Election of the Democratic Party, the Election of the Democratic Party announced that Giblan, his eldest son and Plaboor's campaign, were no longer a party member.
Political observers generally believe that the prerequisites for the struggle to send Democratic Party to the cabinet to enter the cabinet. In addition to the party's political agenda, Plabovo must also persuade the United States and Canadi, and its own regime will not be shrouded in the influence of Zoko.
The Indonesian media rumored that Plaboopo's aids have already arranged for him to meet with the United States and Canadi, and the United States and Garvarti is said to be announced at the conference held by the Democratic Party at the end of May.Governance Alliance.
Yanu Alle speculated that the Democratic Party will eventually choose to be the opposition party, and at the same time win the position of speaker to make full use of political chips.He said: "The Democratic Party as the opposition party can make obstacles to the development policy of the Prabovo government in Parliament, and these are expected to become a chip of political transactions."
Nicky Fahrizal, a researcher at the Indonesian Strategy and International Research Center, pointed out that if the Democratic Party chose to the Democratic Party, the Democratic Party must master the interaction of the wild camp. In addition to the impartial and prosperous party (PKS) who has not entered the wild party (PKS),Coordinating political opinions must also supervise the government with civic society and criticize policies.
But Nie Qi believes that even if the Democratic Party cannot be persuaded to join the governing alliance, Plabovo will at least fight for the Democratic Party to support some strategic projects within his office.
It is rumored that Plabowo is to meet the size of the Cabinet to meet the size of the Cabinet
Plaboor is rumored to be striving for Congress to support the amendment of the law to expand the size of the cabinet in order to successfully realize the campaign commitment, and at the same time meet the requirements of the political parties in the governing alliance hoping to get the position of minister.
According to the law of the Ministry of Ministry of the State Department of Indonesia, the upper limit of the cabinet department is 34.However, it is reported recently that Plabowo intends to adjust the upper limit to 40.
According to the Jakarta Post, Habibelman, the executive party of the Great Indonesian Sports Party led by Plabovo, explained recently that increasing departments help Indonesia to solve many problems."Indonesia is a big country, facing huge challenges and having grand goals. Our government needs many people, which is reasonable."
The Indonesian Constitution and the National Administrative Lecturer Association also supported such an idea earlier this month, saying that Indonesia needs up to 41 ministers to ensure flexible administrative management and efficiency.
But in addition to administrative needs, political factors are also believed to be a major motivation to expand the size of the cabinet.Nie Qi, who studied the Indonesian Constitution, told the United Morning Post and expand the proposal of the cabinet scale to reflect the political strategy of Plaboor's tolerance. His goal is to make all the allies in the government."Plabovo's leadership style is surrounded by a solid political party alliance. At the same time, it also contacted political opponents to attract them to join the government or at least support his important policies."
There are six political parties to test Plabovo's leadership ability
After the National Democratic Party and the National Revitalization Party joined, Plabowavo's ruling alliance has six political parties, which is a test of Plaboor's leadership capabilities.After expanding the cabinet, Plabovo must be able to effectively control all parties.
Yusuv at Yusuv's East South Asian Research Institute believes that Plabovo has such capabilities.He said that in everyone's cognition, Plabowavo has always been doing decisive things and believes that he can find a balance between the demands of all parties."He is not only a politician, a military leader, but also a successful businessman and bureaucrat."
In the distribution of ministerial positions, Yanu Alle speculated that Plabovo would not simply distribute according to the votes of each party. Instead, he would pay more attention to his political parties who have always supported him when the campaign starts.
Some Public opinion in Indonesia does not support expanding the cabinet, and believes that a huge bureaucracy will only increase the financial burden for no reason.To expand the cabinet, it is necessary to get the parliament to practice the law first, and it is estimated that it will not be achieved so quickly.As a result, Yanuhr did not rule out that Plabovo would first set up a new institution and add deputy minister of various departments to achieve the goal of expanding the cabinet position.
The proportion of young Members to the Deep Family Political Seal
Although voters are younger, the proportion of young Indonesian members elected continued to decline, and family political phenomena were lingering.Scholars pointed out that this is caused by young voters' "superficial" and the masters of the political family.
According to a survey by the Indonesian Strategy and International Research Center, in the 2009 election of Indonesia, members under the age of 40 accounted for 23.2%of the parliament, but this ratio has repeatedly declined in the next three elections.Among the February elections in February this year, only 15%of the 580 elected parliamentarians were less than 40 years old.
In this election, more than half of the voters under the age of 40, but young members have not increased.Nie Qi urged the Indonesian party to inject vitality into their propaganda and political agenda.
Nie Qi believes that the proportion of young members is low, which is due to the lack of young people from the government.He said that without considering the political family or sufficient resources, politics requires courage, toughness and political and social pressure."Student organizations, civic social organizations, and political parties have become important tools for new blood in politics. This can ensure that young people can enter Congress and serve as administrative positions through elections, or other public office, so that they can implement innovative policies"
The same survey also found that 138 among the elected members, 138 (24%), who had a relationship between political leaders or government officials or family members, showed that the seal of family politics in Indonesia's political scene was still deep.
Scholars: Young voters do not understand family politics to democracy and Indonesia's harm
The Political Researcher of the Indonesian National Research and Innovation Agency, Wasisto Raharjo Jati, said in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that this is mainly because the resources of the political family are stronger and the supporters have wider networks.Another reason is that those who are in the family often find successors from the family contact bond.
Yanu Al also pointed out that voters are younger as a whole and do not necessarily mean that voters have more critical thinking in politics.In his opinion, Indonesian young voters are not concerned about family politics and other issues, or they lack cognition.
Yanu Alle said: "They do not fully understand the harm of family politics to the future of democracy and the future of Indonesia. Like other developing countries, they are concerned about economic growth, employment and self -centered interests." "To some extent, they are politically superficial ... The only way to overcome this problem is education. But in the mid -term, this trend is expected to continue, and the same problem will continue to trouble Indonesia."
