No matter how violently the storm will eventually pass, the world has ushered in the era of epidemic situation, and it will definitely usher in the era of peaceful and stop reconstruction.After the crisis, it was a turnaround. The Fed started from the US's own interests, and keenly dropped the pair of interest rates, and began to lay out the future layout of the world.
On September 18, the Eastern Time, Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, finally announced the first 50 basis points at a high rate of interest rates.As the capital market of "the world's long -term interest rates", the reaction after excitement is chaos and confusion.This transaction emotion directly reflects in the stock market: After the U.S. Dow Jones Industrial and Commercial Index on the same day, after the historical high rose to 4,982 points, the end of the end was exhausted, and the three major indexes were harvested.
Before the Fed's Monetary Policy Conference, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August rose 2.5%year -on -year, a significant decrease from the historical high 9.1%, showing that the successful success of inflation was contained;Non -agricultural employment rates are less than expected.A basis.
But unexpectedly, the Federal Public Marketing Committee (FOMC) uses a 12-1 absolute majority ticket to use the radical scheme of 50 basis points at 50 basis points.Powell's speech after the meeting also gave up Nishizi's insistence on interest rate reduction at "2%of inflation".However, Powell, which seems to be tending to pigeon, emphasized in the answer session that significant interest rate cutting is not the next normal new rhythm. In the future, it will decide to accelerate, slow down or suspend interest rate adjustment based on specific real -time economic data, but "We don’t haveWill return to the era of ultra -low interest rates. "The Wall Street traders therefore gave the contradictions on the contradictions of "pigeon -to -dividend and eagle action", and believed that it brought a negative confusion to the market.
The layman looks at the lively, and the inner bank looks at the goal. The so -called Fed's monetary policy "Eagle Pigeon Controvers" is only a positive appearance for short -term speculation in the capital market. On the other side is the FOMC director headed by Powell.On the eve of the political sensitivity, adhering to the principle of "professional people doing professionalism", and re -calibrating the interest rate policy based on the actual economic conditions, the two major policy mission given by the Federal Reserve is: maximize employment and stable prices.
The presidential candidates of the donkey elephant two parties evaluate the Fed's interest rate reduction measures from their own political perspective. The Democratic Party's Harris believes that this is good news and believes that the economy is stabilizing under the governance of the current Democratic Party government.And she will focus on continuing to reduce inflation and benefit the middle class and working families.The low -income people are the most important election ticket warehouses this time.The Republican Trump believes that the sharp interest rate reduction shows that the Federal Reserve is controlled by the Democratic government in "playing politics" and also proves that the current economic situation is very bad. The subtext word is that the election must be "replaced by people."
It must be pointed out that Harris and Trump can make their own political statements, but they cannot substantially intervene in relevant monetary policies.There are two policy conferences in the Fed this year, November and December, and November is the election month, and December is after the new president's confirmation, and at this time, it will add "political operations" to Guadian Lixia.Therefore, Powell, this time, was put on political pressure and made a seemingly contradictory but correct economic policy decision.As an independent US Central Bank, the Monetary policy decision does not need to be approved by the senior management of the US President or President of the United States; the term of office of directors can even span multiple presidential terms to avoid short -sighted political interference.
As for a large number of negative comments on the US interest rate reduction on the Internet, such as the United States "can't carry", "lost", "major failure", etc., it is also trapped in one -sided misunderstanding of blind people.Different from the economic cycle of the past, the global inflation crisis that lasted for four years originated from the overlapping damage of black swans such as crown disease epidemic, geopolitics, the Russian and Ukraine War, and the Middle East crisis.But the violent storm will eventually pass, and the world has ushered in the era of epidemic situation, and it will definitely usher in the post -war era reconstruction of peace and stop war.After the crisis, it was a turnaround. The Fed started from the US's own interests, and keenly dropped the pair of interest rates, and began to lay out the future layout of the world.
overwhelm the last straw of globalization?
Looking forward to 2025, two hot battles on the earth will be more likely to usher in the final moment.Russia has actually entered the economic model of the war. Under the widespread and severe economic sanctions in the Western world, Russia's bank's basic interest rate has reached 19%of the unsustainable boundary line;The people can no longer enjoy the peaceful and peaceful phenomenon.The gradual depletion of war resources will promote the options of politically resolving politics.On the other hand, Israel, which killed the three parties in the Middle East crisis, must also know the political dividend of peace in the Middle East to the upcoming US president Biden.
Financial and military workers are two ace of the US economy. The US dollar depreciates appropriately as the interest rate reduction, but it is more conducive to the export of the US military industry and the industry chain under the banner of "Made in the United States".American weapons have proven to have been actively combat in two wars. Compared with Russian weapons, they even have the advantages of differences, which will become monopoly products in the global military industry market.Recently, the explosion of the lecturer and walkie -talkie of the Lebanon Real Party has prompted the governments to give priority to the fact that the governments of the country must have a priority of security than economic benefits.This may become the last straw that overwhelms globalization.
In this era of great changes, regardless of the size of the country, we must maintain the crisis awareness of caution and fear, do yourself, practice internal skills, and avoid betting on the zero -sum game of "I have failed to gain a profit".As a small country like most Singapore in the world, while maintaining a foreign strategy of "making more friends and not being able to match", it should be used in the global economic layout and not put all eggs in the same basket.National interests maximize.
The author is the president of the Asia -Pacific Regional Enterprise Group
