In the turbulent wave of Harbin, Iran has fallen into a difficult choice.For more than half a month, "retaliation or let go?" This question has always been lingering in Iran's heart.On August 15th, a new round of Gaza ceasefire negotiations opened in Qatar is of great significance, because it is related to whether Iran will implement large -scale retaliation on Israel because of the assassination of Hamas leader Hania, and whether it can avoid whether it can avoidThe further upgrade of the war.
Israel's behavior can be described as daring, and the key negotiating opponent to choose the "physical elimination" is shocking.As an important figure in Hamas, Hania, a gentle and stable image made him a key force to promote ceasefire.However, he was assassinated during the inauguration of Iran's new president in Tehran, which was a serious violation of Iran's sovereignty and dignity.
Iran's response is complicated and cautious.On the one hand, Hamenei, the highest leader of Iran, and other military and political leaders vowed to return their teeth, but on the other hand, they have not yet reached a actual large -scale retaliation operation.Inside Iran, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard advocated a tough background around whether to retaliate against the retaliation, while the newly appointed President Pezhiziyan emphasized restraint.
Earlier, Iran also showed caution in similar conflicts.For example, in the spring of 2020, after the Islamic Revolutionary Guards General Sulemani was assassinated by the United States, Iran launched a symbolic missile attack on its military base after warning the United States.After the Iranian diplomatic agency in Syria was hit by Israeli, Iran's revenge on Israel was also symbolic.
This series of actions shows that although Iran is angry, it always avoids the United States in a large -scale conflict.It is more inclined to use regional allies such as "resistance to the axis" to put pressure on Israel to achieve its own game demands.
However, Iran's decision -making does not depend only on itself.The trend of the Middle East crisis affects global energy security and the interests of great powers.The United States is at a critical stage of the presidential election campaign and is anxious about the delay of the conflict of Harbin, especially the Israeli actions on the United States on the United States.Although the United States has always supported Israel, it is also dissatisfied with Israel's delay in war.At the same time, the United States strengthened its military forces in the Middle East after the assassination of Hania, which not only called on Io to restrain, but also showed a card that started war for Israel.
Russia also expressed concern about the confrontation between Iran and Israel.Russia has a complex relationship with Iran, and has cooperated in many ways in recent years.If Iran and Israel fall into large -scale conflicts, Russia's economic interests will be damaged, and the energy strategic channel planning will be blocked.
The status quo of Hamas is equally concerned.Hania's assassination made Hamas angrily stated that he wanted to return his teeth with his teeth, but then he recommended that the new leader Sima Valdo was recommended and issued a statement calling for the formulation and implementation of the Gaza ceasefire plan.This reflects that Hamas needs to respond to the suspension of the international community subjectively. It is also objectively damaged due to long -term conflicts, and the war is required to restore the vitality.
Israel's performance in this conflict is accused.Gaza's war has lasted for more than 10 months. Israel has not only fallen into isolation internationally, but also “five -line operations” in security. Social and economic development has been severely damaged. It is also facing the danger of direct duel with Iran.The "grass -cut strategy" of Israeli Prime Minister Neyho not only failed to achieve the expected results, but instead put Israel's own pressure.
In this intricate situation, Iran's choice is particularly critical.If Iran chooses to retaliate, it may cause the regional situation to further deteriorate, and even cause conflicts to overflow into a wider area.But if you choose to forbearance, how do you face the emotions of domestic people and the continuous provocation of Israel?
From a more macro perspective, the conflict of Harbin is not only a contradiction between Israel and Palestine, but also the complex issues of the interests of regions and the world.Iran's role and decision -making not only affect their own interests, but also to a certain extent affect the peace and stability of the entire region.
Iran's choice must not only consider the current anger and revenge desire, but also focus on long -term national interests and regional peace.In this game full of variables and challenges, Iran needs to find subtle balance between the impulse of revenge and the demands of peace.
Looking back at history, the Baza conflict has a long history, and every violent conflict brings endless pain and damage.Today, Iran's choice may become the key to breaking this vicious circle.Is it continuing to fall into the vortex of hatred and revenge, or bravely take the pace of seeking peace and reconciliation?This is not only a problem faced by Iran, but also the problem that the entire international community pays attention to and expects to solve.
In short, Iran is standing at a crossroads, and the ultimate choice will have a profound impact on the region and the world.We look forward to wisdom and peace to finally defeat impulses and hatred, bringing true tranquility and hope to this land destroyed by war.
The author is a member of the Beijing China Future Research Association and a member of the Chinese Popular Science Writers Association
