In Japan, there are various speculations and discussions on the US presidential election held in November. So far, general opinions have gradually concentrated on Trump's election again.Of course, the election has not yet ended and it is not allowed to relax, but at present, Japan believes that Trump's winning face is even greater.If Trump is elected president again, the policy launched may not be exactly the same as the last time in power, because his predictability is not high, and it is difficult to accurately predict.Even so, the public opinion circle has various predictions and opinions based on Trump's personality tendency.
One of them is his economic policy.If Trump is elected, "Trump tax cut" will become a representative economic policy, and may negatively suppress inflation.Therefore, many people are concerned that the US dollar is higher and the yen depreciation will further intensify.
Secondly, it is about security policy.At present, in addition to China and North Korea, Japan has a tense relationship with Russia than before, and the security environment is very severe.In terms of Taiwan and the Ukrainian war, Trump and the Republican Party may launch different policies with the Democratic Party.Not only that, it is not as good as the current government to strengthen the relationship with the allies, and it may also require the allies to increase the burden on defense costs.The most worrying point in Northeast Asia is Trump's response on the Taiwan Strait and the Korean Peninsula.
These issues are closely related to how to get along with China.
There are two views on Trump's policy on China.First, it is believed that it may become more severe in tariff issues, but it will be cold -handled than the current government on security guarantees and human rights issues.This is the last Trump administration, at least the policy of China in the early days of governing.Another point of view is that after Trump was elected, he would inherit Bayon's policy on China, and he would be more severe.Such a policy overlaps with the end of the previous Trump government.
The reason is sufficient. For the United States, China has become a long -term competitor, which is an indisputable fact. Furthermore, the Bayeng government's policy on China has been legalized and institutionalized; and in Trump, in TrumpAmong the candidates for the think tank after the election, there are many people holding tough arguments around international issues and China -related issues.From the current point of view, the latter's insights seem to be uprising.Although Trump's own personality and directionality have not changed, compared with the last period of administration, the international environment is already very different.
Recently, in Japan, it is not based on the premise of assuming Trump's election, but on the premise of almost the Trump administration, and various sand tables are deduced.Even so, it is very difficult to accurately predict Trump.Therefore, there seems to be no other path except to implement a comprehensive deduction and improve the ability of the strain.
The author is a professor at the University of Tokyo
