Vietnam's politics is still dominated by people, and the entire policy policy is deeply influenced by the personal political will of leaders.Therefore, before the future political strong people have not emerged, the possibility of the entire Vietnam's foreign policy should not be high.

The General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Vietnam Communist Party of China, Ruan Fuzhong, died of illness on July 19th. At the moment of dying, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China officially confirmed the condition on the 18th, and announced that the President Su Lin was responsible for guiding the Yue Communist Party in accordance with the regulatory power of the Politburo.The Central Committee, the Politburo, and the Secretariat work.However, while announcing the aforementioned matters, the Ruan Fuzhong Venus Medal was also announced; at this time, all parties expected Ruan Fuzhong to die.

Since Ruan Fuzhong has been elected as General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam in 2011, he has continued to control the power for more than 10 years and completely dominates the development of Vietnam's political situation. In addition, in 2013, he personally prepared the anti -corruption and anti -dismissal committee, and began to take the furnace movement to promote each to promote each.The social reform campaign of the corruption officials has also allowed the Vietnamese to use the model of the "Four Pillars of the imperial court" by the historian of Yue.The political traditions of government Prime Minister and the collective leadership of the President of the Congress began to turn to Ruan Fuzhong's power to take over the power, and fully dominated the Vietnamese national policy.

Because of this, the trend of concentration of power structure decision -making has allowed Ruan Fuzhong to gain greater freedom of action in political decision -making, and to make Vietnam's foreign policy more flexible.It is undeniable that during the period of Ruan Fuzhong's main administration, Vietnam's "bamboo diplomacy" (or "bamboo diplomacy") in Vietnam was deeply rooted in basic principles, but when responding to the worldThe traditional friendship of Beijing and Moscow has also successfully improved the relationship between opposition from the United States.

Ruan Fuzhong has adjusted the foreign relationship and strives for foreign investment through a wide range of good destiny. It has indeed clearly strengthened the trend of Vietnam's economic development. After the people's lives have been improved, they are actively governing corruption and evil habits.For promoting foreign policies, it becomes the most important policy operation capital, and allows other countries to face the Vietnamese government's various policies seriously when interacting with Vietnam.

Although Hanoi and Beijing are also socialist countries. The political operation system and political ideas are extremely consistent, but there are serious contradictions such as lords in real national interests.Vietnam hopes to obtain opportunities for development through China's foreign investment policy, and even hopes to create substantial economic benefits through business exchanges, and successfully set up a smooth car for China's economic growth.

Therefore, in 2013, Ruan Fuzhong visited Beijing and properly handled the differences between the sea area and territoriality with the party to communicate with the party through the party's communication channels, reached an agreement, smoothly stabilized the relationship between the two parties, and laid for the future improvement of economic and trade exchanges, strengthening investment cooperation, and laiding for investment cooperation.Solid foundation.Both sides intend to put on hold the controversy of the South China Sea. Therefore, although there are occasional twists and turns, they can still resolve tensions and stabilize the situation.

However, at the time of Ruan Fuzhong's illness, the Vietnamese government proposed to the United Nations Reef Committee of the United Nations to propose that it claimed that the Southern China Overseas Continental Circle Circle Cases caused Beijing to be quite unhappy.However, according to the explanation of Hanoi to Beijing, this move is to deal with the continental tributary of the mainland racks proposed by the Philippines, and as long as there are any objections in these relevant countries, the United Nations will put the case on the case and will not be tried.It will not continue to develop and ignite the fire of diplomatic war between Beijing and Hanoi, becoming a topic of tension between the relationship between the two parties.Strictly speaking, before Ruan Fuzhong's death, the case proposed that it would be much better than that after Ruan Fuzhong died, and it would be much better to put on the stage; otherwise, it would inevitably be interpreted as the stance of Hanoi on the South China Sea issue.

In addition, after Ruan Fuzhong's death, the high -level power structure of the Vietnamese government will inevitably reshuffle. In the future, Su Lin will continue to temporarily post.Candidates, or find the appropriate candidate to serve as the President of the State, and then the Special Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam and the General Secretary of the Central Military Commission by Su Lin.The possibility of both plans cannot be completely eliminated.

According to the Party Constitution of the Communist Party of China, if you want to hold the position of the general secretary, you must have a complete qualifications for a member of the Politburo; from the perspective of the Chinese politics countertops, only the prime minister Fan Mingzheng and Su Lin can succeed in office.EssenceIn addition, the General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the President of the State of the Communist Party of China and the State President also have the three preceding examples of Ho Chi Minh, Long March and Ruan Fuzhong. Obviously, in order to ensure the stability of political stability, the General Secretary of the Sulin Agent Yue Communist Party is maintained.After the election of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, it is most likely.

Of course, according to the current politics of Vietnam's politics to maintain the potential rules of the North -South balance, Su Lin and Fan Ming are both from the North Vietnamese region.The characters are in the early political scene.But don't forget that Ruan Fuzhong actually originated from North Vietnam. Such a north -south balanced political hidden rules may not be a political iron law that cannot be changed. It can only be used as a reference, but it cannot be fulfilled.

In the end, it is necessary to emphasize that Vietnam's politics is still dominated by people, and the entire policy policy is still affected by the personal political will of leaders.Therefore, before the future political strong people have not emerged, the possibility of rapid transformation of foreign policies in Vietnam should not be high. In the near future, it will continue to follow Ruan Fuzhong's diplomatic route, basically maintaining the current stable model operation.

The author is a senior researcher at the Chinese Strategy Society in Taiwan