The Wall Street Journal reports that the Chinese government, including diplomacy, trade, investment, and technology departments, has designated officials to observe the US elections, and the focus is especially on the Trump camp.What is the most worried about Beijing is whether the United States will improve the level of Chinese trade and science and technology sanctions.

Trump accepted the third nominated as a presidential candidate for the United States at the Republican Conference on July 19, and then published a 92 -minute speech with a record length.Trump's spirit is far better than the old dragon bell of the Democratic opponent Biden.At the Republican Conference, he nominated the young Ohio Senator J.D. Vance as the deputy to be obviously added. A series of incidents caused Trump to rise. This strong political animal also affected the changes in the Taiwan Strait.If he returns to the White House, it will undoubtedly have a big impact on mainland China; but on the other hand, he once described "Taiwan only has the size of the pen tip", which also makes people worry about whether the businessman will sell Taiwan lightly.

Trump has launched a trade war on mainland China in the first presidential term, and has opened offensives such as a series of tariff barriers to China for more than six years.After he stepped down, Beijing also announced that the Secretary of State Pompeo, who was within his office, and other 28 personnel who had seriously infringed China's sovereignty on the issue of China to impose sanctions. "Sanctions on the U.S. Field Government's Sacrifice can show how much China hates Trump.

Trump 1.0 makes Chinese leaders hate teeth. Generally, it is expected that Trump 2.0 will not make mainland China a good life.The Washington Post reported that Trump considered 60%tariffs on imported goods in China, but in the latest interview with Bloomberg Business Week in July, he denied this statement, but said that tariffs may be "higher".

Wanz, who was born in a poor rust belt, advocated that the US security focus turned to East Asia. He believes that for the United States, Asia is more important than Europe.He has criticized NATO countries as "customers who have long enjoyed U.S. benefits", and do not care about Ukraine's life.After he was invited to become Trump's deputy, he told Fox News in the first time he was interviewed by the media on July 15: China is the biggest threat to the United States. The United States should quickly end the Ukrainian issue to concentrate on dealing with China.Earlier, he also frankly said: "I must tell you frankly that I don't really care about what will happen in Ukraine as a country." He criticized the US military to help Ukraine and crowded off the military support for Taiwan.However, as a whole, the millennial political golden boy has more attention to the Silicon Valley technology industry than international issues. He also brought a lot of Silicon Valley technology as a gold master for Trump.

Beijing, although some people see that Trump's unilateralism will destroy the relationship between the United States and the allies and allow China to have more opportunities to break through the United States in Europe and Asia.Elected more disadvantages to China.

Sun Yun, the director of China Project Director of the American Think Tank Stin Sheng Center, told the Wall Street Journal in May this year: "China believes that if Trump returns to the White House, the upward space of Sino -US relations will be restricted, but there is no bottom space ...… "The report also pointed out that the Chinese government, including diplomacy, trade, investment, and technology departments, all designated officials to observe the US elections, focusing on the Trump camp.What is the most worried about Beijing is whether the United States will improve the level of Chinese trade and science and technology sanctions.

On the occasion of the Republican National Congress, the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado was also appeared on July 16th at the year in Colorado, and China was the focus issue.The CEO of the forum, Anja Manuel, said that if Trump was elected president again, US -China relations will be a "A Wild Ride".As an example, she raised the article published by Trump's former staff, saying that "Trump" is not only to control the competition in the United States and China, but to defeat China.

Taiwan Soyiti Ginseng half

As for Taiwan, it is a worry -free ginseng.Trump was the only US leader who answered Taiwan ’s phone calls after the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States, and he showed his force to mainland China during his tenure. It was also the owner of the White House of the White House in the past half a century.

Yu Maochun, director of the China Center, director of the Hudson Institute of Conservative Think Tank in the United States, is the chief Chinese policy consultant of the State Council of Pompeo as the era of the Secretary of State. When he visited Taiwan in July, he pointed out that in the Trump era, the US policy for the Taiwan Strait was on the Taiwan Strait.From fuzzy to clear, Trump's internationalization of the Taiwan Strait issue is the biggest guarantee for Taiwan.He recalled that during the two and a half years of the Trump administration, the U.S. warships passed 59 times through the Taiwan Strait, and after the Terminal of the Seventh Fleet in the 1970s terminated the Taiwan Strait's cruise missions, the total number of US ships passed the Taiwan Strait.He believes that the Bayeng government emphasizes both competition and cooperation with China, but it has not achieved results in more than three years, because the ultimate goal of the Bayeng government sets to avoid conflicts with China., Badmenging conducts Taiwan military exercises.

In the Republican Conference speech, Trump is very unfriendly called "Chinese virus", and at the same time criticized Chinese car dealers to set up factories in Mexico and then resold to the United States.tariff.However, in the speech, he did not emphasize military compete with China. Instead, he moved the focus to Russia and promoted the Russian nuclear submarine's visit to Cuba, as if it was the Cuban missile incident in the Kennedy era.

Last year, Biden announced the use of presidential appropriation rights to provide military assistance to Taiwan's $ 345 million (about 464 million S $ 464 million), which was the first time for the Taiwan military for the first time in 40 years.In contrast, Trump has always asked the allies to "pay for users", and also made Taiwan worry that if he returned to the White House, not only would he not help Taiwan anymore, he would ask Taiwan to pay huge protection fees.

In an exclusive interview published by Bloomberg Business Week in July (the actual interview was made at the end of June), Trump said: "I think Taiwan should pay for the defense fee" "You know, we and insurance companies have nothing to doDifferent. "He also said that Taiwan is too far away from the United States and near mainland China. It is difficult to defend Taiwan in the United States.

Trump also further named the Taiwan semiconductor industry: "We have protected Taiwan for many years, but they stole our chip business to see how stupid we are? They snatched our chip business, they are very rich and rich"He reiterated:" They really steal our chip business 100 %, I think Taiwan should pay us! "

Interview with an interview, TSMC stocks in Taiwan ’s“ Guo Guo Shenshan ”TSMC fell sharply. The Taiwan stock market index once fell more than 600 points, and the market value evaporated nearly NT $ 2 trillion (about S $ 82 billion).Foreign capital has sold high -value stocks in the Taiwan stock market for two consecutive days, so that the prospects of Taiwan's stock markets that have risen all the way this year are covered with shadows.

If Trump is elected, the semiconductor industry in Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore is really a disaster to Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore.The protection fee problem is related to the United States to maintain the world hegemony. On the one hand, it must maintain the global economic order, and to bear the responsibility of the "World Police".Do not fall.

However, Trump said before the campaign before the above remarks that it is of great significance as a "inner propaganda".In the Republican Conference speech on the 19th, he did not mention Taiwan's protection fee, nor did he name Taiwan semiconductor industry.

In fact, whether Trump will be elected or a question mark.

The originally determined that the assassination incident was like the guarantee of his election. Unexpectedly, the support of polls after the assassination did not rise significantly as expected.The analysis of the famous Junior Policy website 538 after the assassination of Trump on July 15 showed that Trump's support42.4%, Biden 40.2%, only 2.2 percentage points apart, the gap between 16 and 17 days was even reduced to 2 percentage points. However, after the Republican Conference was held on the 19th, the gap was slightly expanded to 3.3 percentage points.Of course, the US presidential election is a selection group system, and the results of the election will be different from the poll results.

So far, the U.S. presidential election can not be completely concluded. The two sides of the Taiwan Strait have to continue to observe whether the two elderly candidates will be surprisingly strange to the issues of cross -strait issues.

The author is a columnist in Taiwan