Huang Weiman: Is China carbon peak?

China's new energy replacement effect has gradually become, and the decline in traditional energy proportion has made many people amazed and some people feel unbelievable.Regardless of the decline in monthly carbon emissions or definition of annual data, China will achieve carbon peaks in 2030 early years before 2030, which can be almost determined.

The pace of China's energy green and low -carbon transformation has continued to accelerate, and renewable energy has maintained rapid development.In recent months, many people are discussing enthusiastically in the observer who pays attention to China's low -carbon transformation and development trend: Is China's carbon emissions reached its peak last year?

The American Asian Association, which promotes non -governmental exchanges between the United States and Asia, has been closely tracking progress in this area.Senior researcher of the Association's Institute of Policy Research, Lauri Myllvirta, wrote an analysis this month that China ’s non -fossil fuel energy accounted for 44%in May this year, a record high, and coal power generation has decreased by seven percentage points from last year last year.By 53%, carbon dioxide emissions in the power industry decreased as a whole.This means that if the deployment speed of Chinese wind and solar energy is maintained, the national carbon emissions will continue to decline, and 2023 will also be the year of the country's carbon peak.

Prior to this, China's new energy replacement effect gradually appeared, and the proportion of traditional energy has declined, which has surprised many people and some people feel unbelievable.At present, China is leading the world in wind and solar energy. The average installed capacity increases by 6.5 Gava per week. One is that this is equivalent to the peak power of more than five nuclear energy generators per week.Regardless of the decline in monthly carbon emissions or definition of annual data, China will achieve carbon peaks in 2030 early years before 2030, which can be almost determined.

Interestingly, Miliwell Tower observed when tracking and analyzing Chinese wind energy and solar energy use rates that Western media such as Bloomberg and Reuters are not complete before the official information release, it is speculated that the cause of Chinese wind and solar power generationToo rapid growth leads to restrictions on the load of the power grid.

Millywalta criticized these media agencies "Fell for the Rumour Mill", and has been confirmed too much because of China's determination to transform its energy transformation because of the interests of China's coal industry.For example, the article published by Bloomberg on July 1 is the title "China Stops Public" (China Stops Public "(China Stops Public."The agency was immediately beaten because of delusion.

Although it takes time to realize that carbon peaks need time, it is impossible to achieve overnight, but Chinese leaders promise that the country will achieve this goal by 2030, and in 2060 reaches carbon neutrality, to a certain extent, it reflects the responsibility of a large country and shows thatIt is not entangled on issues such as historical accumulation and emissions.

However, on the other hand, China has also cleverly adopted the strategy of tightness and obscure in the progress of low -carbon transformation. Beijing has never mentioned whether China has achieved carbon peaks.In December last year, the article published by the Washington Post "China is Close to Peak Emissions (But it Doeste to Talk About It), which shows that Western is in ChinaThis is not puzzled without narrative.

The so -called carbon peak refers to the historical turn of carbon dioxide emissions from the increase and decline of carbon dioxide, marking the decoupling of carbon emissions with economic development.However, so far, China's steel, aluminum and cement output still account for more than half of the world's total output. The energy demand of these industries has still higher, and the difficulty of short -term emission reduction is also strong.Dependence.In addition, it is unknown whether China will have more courage to promote large emission reduction after achieving carbon peaks.

When writing this article, the Third Plenary Session of the Chinese Government's Third Plenary Session closed. The plenary session first mentioned in the bulletin that to promote carbon reduction for the first time, which has attracted much attention from the outside world, causing the observer discussion.China has renewed the country's self -contribution target (NDC for short) to the United Nations for the United Nations.

Especially China's current goals and climate action plans to leave room for slowing up emission reduction is the most worrying.The cost of solving climate problems is huge. If you want to reach a global consensus, China and the United States should have a consensus between the two world's largest economies and carbon emissions countries and strengthen cooperation.Many scholars therefore believes that at the end of this year's COP29 Climate Summit, the focus is likely to be in China and the United States.

Of course, China ’s continuous expansion of renewable energy production is affecting the global renewable energy value chain from different aspects, and also allows countries to expect that it can play a greater role in global climate governance.However, in addition to the advancement of new energy technology, China must realize that the cost of greatly and rapidly increasing carbon emissions will be the core element of climate problems. The decisive emission reduction operation will not only meet the overall interests of its country, but also solve the climate of the world to the world.The crisis has significance.

The author is the deputy director of the editorial department of Eco-Business, a regional environmental media and consulting company.