Although it seems excluded from the Russian -DPRK strategic alliance, China has a great influence on these two countries that are weaker than it.The West should pay attention to the use of the strategy between China, Russia, and North Korea.For the United States, this means keeping foreign foreign contact with China and deterrent to Russia.

Not only satisfied with the Russian President Putin, which disrupts European peace, it has recently signed a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty with North Korean leader Kim Jong -un.This measure not only plagues Western officials and Chinese leaders, but also shakes the geopolitical pattern of Northeast Asia, and has an impact worldwide.

Although Putin has triggered strategic uneasiness, the West must keep cautiously, and do not overestimate or underestimate the importance of the treaty.Putin's recent visit to Pyongyang (also his first visit in 24 years) is very pragmatic.Russia urgently requires North Korea's ammunition, weapons and labor to continue to wage war against Ukraine; North Korea, who has long been in isolated, eager to obtain diplomatic support, as well as sensitive military technologies that energy, food, cash and only Kremlin can provide.

For Kim Jong -un, Russia's military technology is particularly important, because these technologies can make North Korea's intercontinental nuclear ballistic missiles successfully return to the earth's atmosphere, and to hit any on the earth without being intercepted by the missile defense system.Target.In addition, if North Korea can create a mute nuclear submarine with the help of Russia, it will not only pose a major security threat to South Korea and Japan.

If Russia really provides such sensitive technologies to North Korea, military balance in the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia will be broken.But a major limit may prevent Russia from doing so: China's global strategy is inconsistent with Russia.

China's highest strategic priority is to win global competition with the United States.Chinese leaders hope to replace the United States -led single -pole international system, and try to create cracks between the United States and allies, hoping to pull some countries into their own track in the United States and allies.Although there is a "unlimited" partnership between China and Russia, China is still reluctant to provide direct military assistance to Russia because it does not want European countries to fall completely to the United States.

Similarly, China has been committed to establishing a more harmonious diplomatic relations with South Korea, including participating in the Korea -Japan -China Summit held in Seoul in May this year, and said at the meeting that it is committed to achieving the "Korean Peninsula Nuclearization."The day before Russia and North Korea signed a new treaty, China and South Korea held 2+2 high -level diplomatic security dialogues in Seoul.

For a long time, China has been trying to maintain the stability of the Korean Peninsula, mainly because it hopes that North Korea can be buffered between the Korean and American troops south of the non -military zone.In contrast, Russia is urgent to win a war that was initiated by it.Putin, who is desperate, seems willing to throw all other concerns aside.However, because his new agreement with Kim Jong -un is actually using each other, this relationship may be ruptured by the end of the Ukrainian war at any time.Given that Trump claims that he will end the war on the first day of the United States Presidential election (probably by satisfying all the demands of Putin), this moment may not be far away.

At the same time, Kim Jong -un tried to get a long -awaited Russian highly sensitive military technology.His main goal is to establish North Korea as a nuclear country that he has to accept.

Of course, if Russia succumbs to North Korea and provides Kim Jong -un with the technology he wants, the US, Japanese and Korean partnership will become more stable.Joint military exercises will be more frequent, and there will be more strategic assets deployed in the Korean Peninsula.South Korean public opinion may also further shift to support the local nuclear weapons planning, or re -deploy the US tactical nuclear weapons in the local area.The development of these situations runs counter to China's strategic interests.

Although it seems to be excluded from the Russian -DPRK strategic alliance, China has a great influence on these two countries that are weaker than it.China's economy is more than nine times that of Russia, more than a thousand times that of North Korea.If China stops buying Russia's energy exports or stopped providing dual -purpose materials (because it has civilian and military uses and is not restricted by sanctions), Russia may not be able to continue to fight in Ukraine.Similarly, without Chinese food, energy and trade, the North Korean economy cannot survive at all.

In view of these developments, the West should pay attention to the use of strategies between China, Russia, and North Korea.For the United States, this means keeping foreign foreign contact with China and deterrent to Russia.If Russia does provide sensitive military technology to North Korea, the United States, South Korea and Japan must take clear and visible measures to strengthen security cooperation and establish a more direct connection between East Asia and NATO.

The strategic interests of China and the United States on the Korean Peninsula issue should be much higher than the Ukraine or the Middle East issue.Both sides want the region to be stable.This shows that if both countries make efforts, they are likely to achieve diplomatic success in this direction.

Author YOON Young-Kwan is a former Foreign Minister in South Korea, Chairman of the Eshan Policy Research Institute

English original title: What to make of the new russia-north korea alliance

All rights reserved: Project syndicate, 2024.