Recently, some new and old friends who are concerned about Malaysia's political development have been encountered in different occasions. They all believed: "(Malaysian Prime Minister) The government of Anwar looks more and more stable, should they be a complete (Congress)?Shouldn't the general election come so fast? "" In such a statement, I usually laughed politely; if I was forced to say something, I usually just use "hope like this" quietly, because in socializingOn the occasion, it may not be suitable for the analysis and interpretation of a lot of chapters.
Strictly speaking, the above statement is at most one -third.The Democratic System of the Masters of the West Min Temple in the United Kingdom, the term of each parliament is up to five years, but it can be disbanded at any time during the five -year term.The prime minister must have the political support of more than half of the members of the Council, so that they must be in power, otherwise they must leave.At that time, the head of state may (usually under the persuasion of the departure prime minister) to dissolve the election again. The head of state may also appoint another parliamentarian supported by more than half of the members to serve as the new Prime Minister.Anwar has the support of about two -thirds of the parliament of Congress, so in the eyes of many people, his governance status is as stable as Taishan, "it should be done in the full session" and "the election should not come so fast."
The Malaysian election is indeed "not so fast", but it is not because the political situation is quite stable, and it is not necessary to hold the election again, but because the regime is replaced, it must not be achieved by the election.
This is not alarmist, encouraging coup or violating the principles of democracy, but as explained in the previous paragraph, but instead, it is a political practice that conforms to the democracy of parliament.
The last time Malaysia did not pass the election, it was replaced by the government, and the government was replaced by the government.At that time, more than 20 Pakatan Harapan members from the ruling party fell overnight and instead supported the opposition party. The then Prime Minister Mahathir acknowledged that he had lost more than half of the members of the parliament.However, Malaysia did not hold a general election at the time, but directly changed Muyudin, who claimed to have more than half of the council.Less than two years later, Muyudin still couldn't prove that he had the support of more than half of the members and had to resign.Similarly, Malaysia also changed another prime minister without the election. It was not until the end of 2022 that Congress's term of office was getting closer and closer to the five -year period, and the election was held.Therefore, the front car can be learned that the Malaysian election does "not come so fast again", because you don't have to "come so fast", you can also achieve the power of some political and ambitious regimes.
Is the Anwar government "more and more stable"?On the surface, it does look like this.Anwar not only has two -thirds of the members of the constitutional amendment, but even the icing on the cake in recent months. Six of the indigenous unity party members from the wild to announce the support of the Anwar government.They claim that the main reason for changing the political position is that the opposition constituency has not obtained government funding and it is difficult to serve voters; although the Pakatan Harapan government announced that it must be distributed fairly to all constituencies, it has not been implemented.None of these parliamentarians have not retired, that is, they did not take the initiative to change the party, so they did not fight against the Malaysian country (the lawmakers who changed the party could be suspended by the parliament of parliament), in principle, they were able to maintain their respective seats.
But the Turkish Party Party has revised the party constitution and stipulated that the party who did such behaviors automatically invalidated (can also touch the reflection job to cause the seat to be suspended).A few days ago, the Tu Tuan Party officially informed the Speaker. Several relevant members have no party membership, hoping that the parliament to hang their seats as soon as possible.However, the council appointed by the government has slowly handled the political crisis, and also sought the statement of the relevant members.
If the final parliament is suspended, the relevant parliamentarians will inevitably enter the court, because their party membership is automatically canceled. In essence, the party members are expelled from the party, which is in line with the exception of the reflection and job -hopping law without having to hang the seats.If the Speaker does not hang their seats, the Turkish Party should also enter the court to seek the "inaction" of the judicial review of the Speaker.
For Anwar, whether the seats of the above -mentioned members are suspended, it is a double -edged sword.If their seats are retained, Anwar's political support will be added in the short term.However, not long ago, many opposition members had supported the Pakatan Harapan government not long ago before the Clatin coup. However, many of the Pakatan Harapan members changed to support the opposition party, which led to Mahathir's steps down.Anwar should be carried by this kind of water that can carry boats and can also cover the boat.This shows that his current governing situation may not be particularly stable.
Conversely, if the Speaker of the Anwar (reported that he is also a trusting and emphasis), the Speaker of the Institute of Trust and the emphasis on the opposition party and the relevant seats of the suspendedness will cause people to gradually betray the supporters of Anwar.The effect of abandoning the boat and shaking his regime stability.
From a more basic level, the instability of the Anwar regime is also manifested in public opinion.In the last election of more than a year ago, the Malay votes won by Anwar were only about 20 % of the Malays. More than 70 % of them were voted for the opposition and national alliances, especially the Islamic Party, which actually dominated the National Alliance.The main political demands of these Malay voters are to see the interests of the Malaysian groups and the social notemization of the Malaysian group.The Anwar government runs counter to their political philosophy.This is evident from the results of the opposition party in the state election and other remedies last year.
Therefore, Anwar's recent political moves have to bring stronger religious colors to try to resolve political pressure, but how many results can be seen and wise.
The author is a senior researcher at the Singapore International Affairs Society (Research Institute)
Chief Counselor of the Malaysian Pacific Research Center
