Source: China News Agency
Author: Xiao Yudi
Recently, Israel and Lebanon's contradictions have been upgraded.The Israeli Prime Minister Neyaha said that the war in the Gaza Strip will soon enter the "new stage", and some military forces may be adjusted to the Li Li border in the future.Why does Neutana be turned to the main party?Will the situation of Li worsening?
conflict spiral rising
Since October 7 last year, in order to respond to the Palestinian Islamic Islamic resistance (Hamas), the Allah frequently fired rockets and shells to Israel, and said that the Gaza Strip continued to fire, and it would not stop attacking Israel;Air strikes and artillery strikes.
According to statistics from the International Immigration Organization, 95,000 Lebanese have left the border, and Israel has evacuated 60,000 people from the border town.
Qin Tian, deputy director of the Middle East Research Institute of the China Institute of Modern International Relations, believes that Neutano's firing his spear head to the Allah mainly has two main considerations.First, the residents in the north cannot return to the settlement for a long time. The production and life order has been seriously affected, and the internal pressure forces him to solve the border problem.It will expand other conflicts as a means to maintain political status.
For the Allah, its demands on Gaza ceasefire cannot be satisfied in a short period of time.Niu New Year, the vice president of Ningxia University academic academic academic and executive president of the National Institute of Arabia, pointed out that there is fundamental differences between Israel and Hamas, and the suspension negotiations have been deadlocked.In recent months, the Allah and Israel have upgraded the strikes limited, and the conflict has risen spiral.
Both sides are reluctant to start war
The military announced on the 18th that it had approved a plan to launch military operations in Lebanon.However, Qin Tian said that making a military preparation does not mean that the political leadership has made strategic decisions that has started war with the Allah, and Israel is currently facing many constraints.
One of them, the military forces of the Allah are far stronger than Hamas, and once the war began, Israel would suffer to some losses.The Associated Press quoted an expert in the Institute of National Security of Israel that the Allah has the ability to attack the rockets and missile reserves of Hamas five times the rockets and missile reserves of the Allah's ability to attack the domestic water sources, electricity and communication facilities, and residential areas.Qin Tian said that it may not be ready to pay a considerable price.
Second, the United States opposes the upgrade of Li conflict.President Biden's special adviser Amos Hakhstayin and other officials have recently visited the Middle East, intending to ease the tension in Libian.Qin Tian believes that Israel depends on the United States to a certain extent in the fields of diplomacy and security, and an important decision must refer to the United States attitude.
War with Israel does not meet the fundamental interests of the Lord.Qin Tian pointed out that, as a military and political organization in Lebanon, maintaining Lebanon's security and interests is the "foundation of survival" of the Allah.With the disparity between the Li military forces, the war will bring heavy disasters to Lebanon.Although the Allah is willing to respond to Hamas and contain Israel, it is unwilling to expand the conflict.
Horizoning is difficult
Niu New Year believes that both Israel and the Master Party are unwilling to have a large -scale conflict, but it is difficult to reach consensus between the two sides, and the situation may be upgraded.
Libian is currently using the "blue line" as the temporary border.Qin Tian said that the Israeli hopes that the Lord of the Lord will evacuate to the north of the Lebanon Ritani River, that is, a military buffer zone at tens of kilometers away from the temporary border to achieve military isolation.However, the Allah must oppose this solution, and the possibility of the results of peace talks is unlikely.In addition, the current ceasefire negotiations have stagnated, and the true party will not stop "harassment" of Israel.
Niu New Year said that if diplomatic resolution fails, there are two situations that may lead to conflict upgrades: one is that Israel takes the initiative to attack and force the Allah to retreat north;As a result, the situation is upgraded.In any case, once it evolves into a large -scale conflict, Iran and the United States may be forced to involve.
At present, the international community generally calls on to resolve conflicts with Li peacefully. The United States and France are trying to promote the dispute between the two parties through diplomatic means.UN Secretary -General Gutres urges relevant parties to reiterate the comprehensive implementation of the UN Security Council No. 1701 resolution on the 21st and immediately restore the ceasefire in Li.He said that it is now when all parties use "rational and rationality" to use existing diplomatic and political channels for pragmatic contact.There is no way out of military means, and the people and the people of the world "cannot make Lebanon a Gaza."
