It is foreseeable that the record of the DPP's "Fifteen Langles" after 520 will continue to be rewritten. Lai Qingde's future situation may be worse than Chen Shuibian eight years.After Tsai Ing -wen was in power for eight years, the DPP is now facing the big disadvantage of the Originals. What adjustments do you have to do in strategy?This is the primary test of the Lai Qingde regime.
520 Taiwan's inauguration day, Lai Qingde has received two "big gifts" -mi, one was sent by Uncle Sam, and one was sent by the Kuomintang and the People's Party Blue and White Party.
The gift from the United States is the Indo -Pacific Security Supplement Act of $ 8.1 billion (about S $ 10.9 billion). Taiwan is the main beneficiary of the bill.This bill opens Mingyi to fight against the expansion of mainland China in the Indo -Pacific region, of which 3.3 billion U.S. dollars are used for allies (should be Japan) to develop submarine infrastructure; 2 billion US dollars provide foreign military financing (FMF) of Taiwan and other allies to ""Fighting against China"; $ 1.9 billion was used to replenish military reserve to assist Taiwan and other allies, and respond to military services, education and training expenditures. Some of them have been delivered to Taiwan and are not newly added military aid.In addition, 542 million US dollars were put into operations in the U.S. Indo -Pacific Command.
When Lai Qingde visited the Republican House Republican members of the House of Representatives at the end of April, he expressed his gratitude to the great gift from the US Congress.However, in the end, which arms will the United States eventually sell or assist in Taiwan?Does it meet the needs of Taiwan?They must also pass the bilateral communication and negotiation to make the case.Another big problem is that the US military fire industry has limited production capacity. Nowadays, in response to the needs of the Ukraine War, many weapons orders have not been delivered by time. This problem causes headaches for the Taiwan military.At present, the U.S.'s right to appropriately is that the President's legislation authorized the president to use the right to allocate the funding of the president last year, which can misappropriating the upper than $ 1 billion of equipment to Taiwan each year.
One of the important significance passed by this military aid bill is that this represents that the United States Democratic and Republican parties have consensus on ensuring the security of Taiwan and also fulfilled their commitments.Of course, Taiwan still has to worry about Trump once elected president, and may change the policy of support for the Taiwan military.Trump, who has always emphasized "user paid", has requested NATO allies and South Korea to share military expenses in the past.When he was interviewed by Times Magazine in April, he once again emphasized: "If you don't plan to pay, then you have to rely on yourself." Trump has always been reluctant to have any trouble in the Taiwan Strait, whether the United States will help Taiwan, but it is certain that it is certain that it is certain that it is certain that it is certain that it is certain that it is certain that it is certain that it is certain that it is certain that what is certain is that it is certain that it is certain that it is sureOnce he is a house, Taiwan wants to continue to get US military aid, and he must have a relatively expensive price.
However, in terms of Guoan, Lai Qingde is even more worried about the resistance from the Taiwan parliament.Even though the opposition party did not oppose the US Congress for passing the Taiwan military aid case, the Kuomintang Chairman Zhu Lilun thanked the United States for their support, and on the other hand, he said: "I am very emotional, the security of the Taiwan Strait has become the world's concern." HeIt is proclaimed that Taiwan should not be concerned about "the most dangerous place in the world".How to make Taiwan dangerous?The subtext is to actively improve cross -strait relations.In order to "break the ice" on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, Fu Kunzheng, the convener of the Kuomintang Legislative Yuan party, was anxious that before 50s, he led 16 Blue Army legislators to land and visited the chairman of the Chinese CPPCC Wang Huning.Wang Huning prompted the representative of the Kuomintang polls to "play a positive role", jointly maintain the peace of the Taiwan Strait, and promote cross -strait relations to return to peaceful development.
How to "play a positive role"?Former President Ma Ying -jeou made a demonstration.In early April, after Ma Ying -jeou visited the mainland to hold a second horse study meeting back to Taiwan, his staff Xiao Xucen called on the Kuomintang legislators to promote the modification of the reverse osmosis method and help the cross -strait exchanges to relieve obstacles.The purpose of this legal legislation is to regulate the infiltration intervention of "overseas hostile forces" to Taiwan, including "instructions, entrustment or funding for not being infiltrated, donating political contributions, or donating funds for citizen voting."For example, the Chinese United Front Leading Organization will entertain the people of Taiwan to travel to the mainland before election, and at the same time take the opportunity to draw votes for some party candidates; Xiao Xu Cen criticizes some of the norms in this law, "the freedom to persecute the people to the mainland."
The Guoan people of the Cai government said that Beijing encouraged Fu Kunzheng and others to promote the amendment of the Cai Yingwen era to set up five laws of national security (the "Guoan Five Law"), and the exchanges between the two sides of the strait were loosened.Controls, including the identity of the personnel to the Chinese, the flow of gold on both sides of the strait, and the export of technology.The Kuomintang refuted the rumors of Beijing's urging law, but did not directly respond to whether to promote the revision of the law. It only said that each amendment that the Kuomintang mentioned was "based on the mainstream public opinion of Taiwan."
Whether Blue and Bai will promote the amendment of the "National Security Five Law" to be observed, but the DPP legislator Shen Boyang proposed the Cross -Strait People's Relations Regulations in early May, requiring the legislators to go to mainland China to be reviewed by relevant government units.The Council was proposed by the convener of the people's party group Huang Guochang and the blue and white legislators to return the bill back to the procedural committee.It can be seen that in the future, the blue and white legislators will continue to cup the Geju Rule of Governor's attempt to strengthen the national security norms.
In addition to loosening the national security norms, the national defense budget will be another focus.When Chen Shui -bian served as the president, the Democratic Progressive Party was also a vulnerable minority in Congress. The Kuomintang and other Kuomintang repeatedly cupped the national defense budget proposed by the Ge DPP government, including the budget of the Taiwan military sales case approved by the US President.In 2001, the United States approved the three arms sales cases in Taiwan, but the Chen Shuibian government later set up related budgets and has been received from the opposition party. From 2004 to 2006, the budget was blocked more than 60 times in the Legislative Council Procedure Committee until 2007 that it was not until 2007 that only 2007 didGet passed.The amount passed only deleted from the earliest more than NT $ 600 billion (about $ 25.1 billion) to only 9.9 billion yuan.In addition to being deleted by the budget of the firewood submarine canceled because it cannot find the producer, the missile budget of the Patriot of Taiwan is very important for the security of Taiwan.In the next four years, Lai Qingde may also cup Ge's defense budget again. The government's total budget will not be proposed until the next period of September. At that time, I am afraid that the opposition party will kill red eyes.
On May 6th, the Chinese Times in the position of the position appeared an eye -catching title: "The Democratic Progressive Party's Legislative Council voted for the fifteen defeats!" Since the Legislative Yuan of the Legislative Yuan in February this year, the Kuomintang and the people's party joined forces in various voting votingIn China, let the DPP swallow 15 defeats -this is equivalent to the "big gift" before the blue and white parties with Lai Qingde and Xingge Zhuo Rongtai.It is foreseeable that after 520, the Democratic Progressive Party's "Fifteen Langles" will continue to rewrite it. Lai Qingde's future situation may be worse than Chen Shuibian.After Tsai Ing -wen was completely in power in eight years, the DPP has played a long time for a long time, and now facing the big disadvantage of Chao Xiaoyo again.What adjustments do the DPP government have to do strategies from the president and the executive director to the Legislative Yuan party group?This is the primary test of the Lai Qingde regime.
It is pointed out that the "elimination obstacles" referred to by China ’s referral to hope to hope that the Kuomintang will play the role of the largest party group of the Legislative Yuan and promote the revision of the" National Security Five Law "to achieve control measures such as eliminating the identity restrictions of Taiwan's confidential personnel.And the supervision of cross -strait gold flow, at the same time loosen the ultimate goal of existing high -tech products and technical export restrictions.
The author is a columnist in Taiwan
