In the case of lack of reconciliation foundation, after the national tragedy on October 7, Israel's position on Palestine, especially the Gaza Strip, will definitely tend to be tough, which makes it even more in the short term in the short term in the short term.No space.
Early morning on October 7th, Hamas, a terrorist organization in Gaza Strip, suddenly launched a military offense against Israel, and it was very rare to enter Israel.As a result, at least 1,300 people in Israel were killed, and hundreds of hostages were taken back to Gaza.
Obviously, this war is very different from the previous Gaza -Israel conflict and war.This is the most serious external attack that Israel has suffered since the 1973 Atonement Day.Israel announced its entry into a state of war, and another Garha -the Israeli war broke out.
The goal of Hamas this time is very clear, that is, entering Israel, no different attack on the people they see, and abducting the most hostages to Gaza as much as possible, adding weights to the future warfare and negotiations to increase the weight.EssenceFurthermore, through the local and short -term victories of Israeli operations, it can show its increasing strength and ability, and establish a more attractive image to the Palestinians; of course, it also leaves the Israelites that are difficult to smooth.
The reason why Hamas can win this time and the reason why Israel suffers heavy losses, the following reasons cannot be ignored:
First, after more than 10 years of Gaza -Israel Conflict and even war, Hamas and other anti -Israeli forces have accumulated more combat experience; second, the past Gaza -Israel conflicts have shown that the military military armed forces of the Gaza armed forces haveThe offensive ability has become stronger and stronger; the third is that Gaza is in the strict blockade of Israel. The Gaza armed forces more and more understand the specific residents of the Gaza Strip in a small area, which has led to the smaller and smaller living space of the Israeli spy in Gaza.Since last year, due to judicial reform, Israel has caused internal division and opposition very seriously, which has greatly weakened the willingness and ability of the Israeli intelligence department and the military.
I personally tend to believe that Hamas's terrorist attack on Israel this time is not only a problem of the Pakistani conflict, but also contains a relatively obvious international impact in the Middle East and abroad.In recent years, the settlement between the Middle East countries has become more and more impact on local real estate, and the impact of various Middle East powers has also been different.
In this context, although Hamas knows that he will be violently retaliated by Israel, because of the planned hostages, coupled with a new pattern or situation in the Middle East and the world, it also appears.Some international factors that are beneficial to Hamas, so Hamas is likely not to think that he will be devastated because of attacking Israel.
Although Hamas's attack on Israel is similar to that of Egypt in 1973 and Syria's sudden attack on Israel, it must be noted that Hamas is not Egypt or Syria, and Gaza cannot bring continuous military pressure on Israel.Indeed, when Israel retaliates against Gaza, it will definitely take into account the safety of hundreds of hostages.This will restrain Israel's revenge.However, Israel's military capabilities are still enough to severely hit Hamas and other Gaza.Moreover, Israel will continue to weaken Gaza's armed forces in the future.It is foreseeable that at least in the short term, the situation of the people in the Gaza Strip will be more difficult.
For more than ten years, Gaza -Israel has repeatedly erupted, and the tragedy of both sides has been staged again and again.In the case where the Palestinian issue is not resolved, unless Israel can completely destroy Hamas and other Palestinian such as Palestine, it will face the stalemate of peace in Pakistan and pursue Hamas, which actively stands, and the influence among the Palestinian people.It is easier to improve, Hamas's security challenge to Israel will continue.
As far as the Palestinian issue began in the 19th century, in my opinion, it has gone through three stages of development: the land competition for the land of Jews and the Palestinian, the war with the Arab country after the founding of Israel, and the current Palestinian demanding IsraelReturn to occupying land and establish an independent country.At present, the mainstream views of the United Nations and the international community on the Palestinian issue are still the two countries theory, supporting the establishment of an independent Palestinian country.Therefore, it is necessary to fundamentally eliminate the occurrence of the tragedy of the Israeli conflict, or to solve the Palestinian problem.
In March 2023, after the Saudi Arabia and Iran reached a settlement agreement in Beijing, they appeared on the voices of Chinese mediation with conflicts.Indeed, reconciliation is the basic desire of the Middle East and the people over the years.Under the new international and regional situation, this desire is gradually becoming realistic and partially becoming a reality, and the trend of reconciliation has been formed.However, frankly, I don't think any country can fundamentally successfully mediate the contradiction with Pakistan.
From the perspective of contradictory direct parties, Israel and Palestine have not yet resolved the foundation of both sides.How can I negotiate with Israel with the first Palestinian, which is still in a serious political division?At present, Israel, which is severe on the Palestinian issue, how can I accept the two countries that need to abandon a large number of land?
In the absence of the foundation of reconciliation, after the national tragedy on October 7, Israel's position on Palestine, especially the Gaza Strip, will definitely tend to be tough.This makes it even more room for Eliphehe at least in the short term.
Not only that, the development of the Palestinian issue that does not inevitably affect the normalization process of Israel -Saudi Arabia relations.After the outbreak of the Battle of Israel, Saudi Arabia has officially announced the suspension of all negotiations with all Israel about normalization.In recent years, the development of the Middle East, which has developed well in recent years, will suffer temporary setbacks for this war.
It is worth noting that after the terrorist attack on October 7, countries have different responses, and the world has fallen into division again because of the Palestinian issue.This is also the usual reaction of the world after the outbreak of the Baza war.As mentioned earlier, a new feature of the severe upgrade of the Pakistani conflict has emerged. It is the initiative of Hamas in Palestine and entering Israel to launch violence against civilians.Therefore, when observing and responding to this Gaza -Israeli war, we must pay attention to this new feature; on the basis of pursuing the international basic position of solving the theory of the Palestinian issues, we must make a more appropriate recognition of this war.Knowing and expressing.
The author is a professor at the Middle East Research Institute of Shanghai Foreign Studies
