Comments: TSMCs market value has evaporated 77 billion US dollars in chip indust

Source: Bloomberg

Author: jeanny yu

As investors are preparing to welcome the long -term weakness of the chip industry, the market value of TSMC's losses since mid -June ranks first in Asia.The decline in this round may not end.

Out of concerns about the weak macro environment and the weak global consumer electronics demand, TSMC's stock price fell 11%since the June high, and its market value evaporated by 77 billion US dollars.In recent months, as traders scrambled to buy a drop of contracts, the leap rate continued to rise, and the stock price of TSMC will fall further.

Thanks to global artificial intelligence (AI) fever, the stock price of this world's largest chip founder has soared 60%between October last year and June this year.However, traders have become cautious, and how much profits will contribute to the company's contribution to AI heat, especially when smartphones and personal computer business have not rebounded.Even the slowdown of high -end AI chip orders is faster than expected.

JP Morgan Chase analyst Gokul Hariharan and others recently stated in the report that, given that most of the terminal markets such as personal computers, smartphones, and non -AI services have weak, all of which means that the recovery of TSMC will slow down in 2024."In view of the uncertain macro prospects, we expect that orders in the first half of 2024 will remain sluggish."

At the same time, in June, TSMC warned that capital expenditure may be at the low-end guidelines of 32 billion to 36 billion US dollars, and analysts have also turned their capital expenditure with caution.The estimated average value of Bloomberg is nearly $ 30 billion.Although cut capital expenditure is usually regarded as positive and prudent cost management tools, analysts said that recently, the pessimism of chip demand for a longer period of time and concerns about the extension of the recovery cycle.

Goldman Sachs Group recently reduced TSMC's capital expenditure next year by more than 20%to $ 25 billion, because it was worried that TSMC might delay overseas production capacity expansion plan.This scale will be the lowest level since the beginning of the epidemic.

Bloomberg data shows that TSMC's 12 -month profit forecast was also revised about 8%from the high point last year, while an overall Asia -Pacific indicator was basically the same.

Some of the problems at the moment are the optimistic emotions of TSMC's cutting -edge technology 3 nano -chip earlier.The mass production of this product last December was regarded as a technological breakthrough, and it is expected to completely rewrite everything from Apple's iPhone to Nvidia's AI generator.

However, due to weak consumption demand, this beautiful prospect has encountered some setbacks.Earlier this month, TSMC reported that the main suppliers delayed the delivery of high -end chip manufacturing equipment.JPMorgana claims that Nivine, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and Qualcomm may even postpone their chip orders to 2025.

Citi Group analysts said that in the case of macroeconomic weakness, in view of the unable to return to the level before the epidemic, "we do predict that recovery may take longer," Laura Chen recently wrote in the report.

However, TSMC still has many positive factors.The company's market share in the second quarter was stable at 59%, and it still attracted its leadership position in the field of chip manufacturing.According to data from the COUNTERPOINT Technology Market Research, its biggest competitor's market share of Samsung Electronics is 11%.

Analyst's rating of TSMC is still high. Bloomberg data shows that no analysts sell their rating. The average target price of 12 months is 24%higher than the previous closing price.As the main foundry enterprises such as Nvidia and AMD, as long as the third quarterly financial report released next month, it shows that its AI -related business has surprises, it may stimulate the buying.

However, before the overall economic recovery, traders may basically keep watching.KEVIN WANG, an analyst of Asian analysts in Risui Securities, said that investors may be more cautious about the inventory adjustment time of TSMC customers than expected."Due to weak terminal demand, we now expect this adjustment to continue until the first quarter of next year or even the second quarter," he added.