Source: Zhongshi Electronic News
Author: Shen Kuan
The issue of "Blue and White" has been announced for more than half a year. Although 60 % of the non -green people are optimistic and urgent, the blue and white parties only stay in the stage of the talk.Consensus can be described as a wave of twists and turns, making non -green voters like the drought.
Blue and White Party should recognize that if the two parties do not adopt cooperation methods, the 2024 election will not only lose the non -green people's hope, let Lai Qingde sit on the benefit of the fishermen, but even the legislators will be the legislators will be for the legislators.The Democratic Progressive Party is over half.
Because of this understanding, the two parties have also begun to communicate with related communication, which opened a dawn for "blue and white".
However, the blue and white parties obviously have their own positions. With their own considerations of their own parties, the biggest problem currently tangled is, of course, the coordination of positive and vice presidents.The people's party pioneered the initiative and proposed the initiative of "decide by polls, the loser withdraw from the withdrawal", and obtained the support of many people. This is equivalent to throwing hot potato to the Kuomintang. How will the Kuomintang respond?It may not be acceptable.
Determining the candidates with polls, it seems very democratic on the surface, and the public opinion is higher than the party's intention, and it is not losing the spirit of "selection and energy".However, the so -called "third -party and fair poll", which is a big issue first when the polls are not good and bad, and the institutional effect is extremely obvious.The institutions that the people want to adopt should be TVBS. From the perspective of the events of TVBS's polls closer to the election, it is undoubtedWhether home will spend, I am afraid that there will be more folding.
This is only possible under the premise of accepting this proposal.As far as Hou and Ke's momentum is concerned, Ke Wenzhe is undoubtedly a better chance. Although the Kuomintang has not obviously opposed it, it may not agree.The current calculation of the Kuomintang is that it is not available, and the savings force is raised by Hou Youyi's momentum to observe the effect.There is a situation where possible mutation is implicit. In case Hou Youyi cannot improve, will the Kuomintang agree?
In fact, there is a blind spot with the victory and loss of polls.First of all, even if you get rid of the institutional effect of the polls, it is actually not as reliable. The interviewees can be enhanced by "mobilization".In addition to the mobilization of the blue and white parties, it also involves the part of the green camp. Of course, the green camp will not give up this enough to make trouble, or even interfere with the polls, and develop in the direction they are willing to see.In other words, there is a part of the decision -making power, even a large part, is that the hand is in the hands of the DPP. Whether such polls really represent public opinion is probably a bigger problem.
In fact, the biggest problem may not be here."Blue and Baihe" is a cooperation between political parties and political parties, not the problem of being pure Hou Youyi and Ke Wenzhe. The two choices are involved in the future development of the two parties.The problem of ignoring the strength of political parties is obviously unfair.
Although the Kuomintang is no longer the "big party" that they have advertised, they still have 38 legislators, 14 counties mayor, and more than 360 local members.However, the five -seat legislator, the mayor of 2 counties, and 14 members of the county, the difference is very different.Of course, the Kuomintang can claim that it is "only right". As far as this is, it is probably impossible to accept the proposal of decision -making by polls unconditionally.This has formed a deadlock.
To resolve the deadlock, only the two parties have given up.The method of concession seems to be considered.First, the Kuomintang accepts the proposal of polls, but a certain gap scope is set, or the Kuomintang can be weighted according to strength.The polls are usually error values. Most of them are within 3%. It may be set. When Ke Wenzhe's polls are higher than Hou Youyi, not outside the scope of error, then weighted, 8%-10 with 8%-10%Is the boundary, and Hou Youyi is still on behalf of the non -green. If this ratio exceeds this ratio, the Kuomintang is willing to gamble and loses, so he will try his best.This is the practice of taking into account both strength and public opinion. Perhaps the two parties of blue and white can coordinate consultation.
The other way is the model of "United Government".The "United Government" is a year -old party cooperation model in Europe, and it is also a policy advocated by Ke Wenzhe's claim. There is no reason to come to the Hou Youyi camp.The "joint government" can not only maintain the independence of the party, but also make different levels of coordination and communication according to the issues. The main thing is to avoid the disadvantages of one -party independence and what they want.
The "United Government" will inevitably handle properly on the arrangement of the cabinet. The chiefs of the ministries and the candidates of the awareness of the state -owned enterprises, as far as the five hospitals in Taiwan, even the legislative, judicial, examination, and supervision institutesThere is no possibility of negotiation in advance.This is of course very different from the so -called "political division", because this can be involved in recommendation and negotiation, so as to choose the best and appropriate candidates to benefit national society.
Under the "joint government" model, the Kuomintang must be included in the opinions of the people's party and jointly decided, and even selected in the Cabinet Commission and the leaders of the state -owned enterprises, so that the people's party has the opportunity to be independent.This is actually great for the people's party.The people's party itself can use the experience of positions to cultivate the next generation of successor talents, and then thrive, laying a solid foundation for future multi -party political shops.As for how to negotiate, I believe that under the big goal of the common "party rotation" of the two parties, it should be successfully carried out.
The above two paths can be negotiated carefully, and it is also the cooperation model that "blue and white" should be adopted.However, there is also a problem in the middle, that is, the difference between "blue and white" and "blue and white" mentioned by Huang Shanshan, and one of the conditions for Ke Wenzhe is "refunding" instead of "positive and deputy and deputy."Fight".
"He" and "combine" are actually not as big as Huang Shanshan thought, but only a sequential issue. The blue and white parties must first "harmonize" to have the possibility of "harmony".In terms of "harmony", in fact, the two parties already have the tacit understanding of "not attacking each other", and in some regional legislators, there is a tendency to "two parties to push one person". This is a good start.But whether the follow -up can really bring together the full strength of the two parties, and to fight against the DPP's candidates is the biggest test.Therefore, this involves the question of "refund".
The Kuomintang's "Blue and White He" obviously hopes that Ke Wenzhe will act as a deputy, because such a "combination" method can absorb Baiying's votes. If Ke retires, I am afraid that the effect will not only be greatly reduced, but also some will also be greatly reduced, but also some will be greatly reduced, but it will also be reduced.It may cause the doubts of Blue and Bai's "face and heart discord"; but in this way, Ke Wenzhe, a deputy, must be dancing with Hou Youyi. In this case, how can Ke Wenzhe be able to lift the people to the peopleWhat about the party's momentum, strive to get more party votes?Obviously this is also the biggest concern of the people's party.
Blue and White Party, although clearly understanding the result of "disagreement", that is, both defeats, but there are calculations of their respective political parties.A degree of extent can "double beauty"?This is not only a test of the wisdom of the master of the blue and white parties, but also a testing gold stone that Taiwan's "new democracy" can be successfully constructed.It depends on how they fold the bottle and stunned.
The author is a cultural worker
