Source: China News Network

On September 1, only two days in the past two days before the officials of Guangzhou and Shenzhen announced that they were "not recognizing the house", Beijing and Shanghai also announced the implementation of this policy and measures on the same day.

So far, all the four major first -tier cities in China have joined the ranks of "recognition of houses and do not recognize loans".Industry analysis believes that this means that the bottom of the country's real estate market may have been established.

All the official announcements of the four first -tier cities

The Beijing Housing and Urban -Rural Development Commission, the People's Bank of China Beijing Branch, and the Beijing Supervision Bureau of the State Financial Supervision and Administration Bureau jointly issued a notice on optimizing the number of housing sets in the city's personal housing loan.

The notification is clear that when residents' families (including borrowers, spouses, and minors) apply for loans to purchase commercial housing, family members have no complete sets of housing under their name. Whether they have used loans to buy housing, banking financeThe institutions all implement the housing credit policy according to the first house.The notice was implemented from September 1, 2023.

On the same day, the Shanghai Municipal Housing and Urban -Rural Construction Management Commission, the Municipal Housing Management Bureau, the People's Bank of China Shanghai Branch, and the Shanghai Supervision Bureau of the State Financial Supervision and Administration Bureau jointly issued a notice on optimizing the number of housing sets in personal housing loans in our city.The policy measures for the purchase of the first home loan "recognize the house without recognition of the loan" will be implemented, and the implementation will be implemented from the next day.

Following the relevant policies of Guangzhou and Shenzhen on August 30, all four first -tier cities have joined the "non -recognition of houses" teams.

What is the policy of "recognizing the house and not recognizing loans"?

"The policy of recognizing houses and not recognizing loan is in popular terms to incorporate more buying groups and demand for house purchases into the identification criteria for the first house." Yan Yuejin, director of research director of the E -House Research Institute, explained, "In other words,The standard of the first set and two -suite will only depend on whether there is a house in your city. "

How does this policy reduce the down payment ratio and mortgage interest rate?For example, Yan Yuejin said that the average total price of a new house in Shanghai is about 5 million yuan (RMB, the same below, about S $ 930,000).Before the policy, the highest proportion of the down payment of the two houses (subscribing to non -Putong houses) was 70%, that is, the down payment required 3.5 million yuan.According to the new policy now, if it is included in the identification of the first house, then the down payment will take about 1.75 million.Based on this comparison, the down payment directly reduced 1.75 million, equivalent to 35%of house prices.

Similarly, it is included in the first house standard, and its mortgage interest rate will be lowered, or the interest rate standard for the first house is applicable.At present, the interest rate of the second house in Shanghai is 5.25%. Based on the principal and interest of 2 million and 30 -year principal and interest in the loan principal, the total interest expenditure is about 1.98 million, and the monthly supply is about 11044 yuan.According to the new policy, its interest rate is 4.55%, and the total interest expenditure is about 1.67 million, and the monthly supply is about 10,193 yuan.In contrast, the total interest expenditure decreased by nearly 310,000 yuan, and the monthly supply decreased by about 851 yuan.

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, believes that the new policy of "recognizing houses and not recognizing loans" supports residents' reasonable housing needs. For families with replacement and improvement of housing needs, it will bring a practical effect.From the perspective of the second -hand housing market in Beijing in recent years, the demand for improvement has exceeded half.

What are the characteristics of the four major cities?

—— Beijing

"The Beijing market has always been relatively stable, and this year, in the face of many external challenges, it shows strong toughness." Shell Research Institute believes that the stability of Beijing is a stable supply and demand relationship, high, high, and high.The self -funded level, reasonable supply scale, and stable policy environment jointly determine.The policy adjustment is to optimize the conditions for buying a house for new citizens and buying a group of houses. Beijing's credit conditions and policy environment are still generally stable.

"In comparison, the cooling of the Beijing market this year was slightly less. In the first half of 2023, the transaction volume of second -hand housing in Beijing rose 21%year -on -year." Zhang Bo, Dean of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, pointed out, but since AprilThe volume continued to decline. In June, the decline in the turnover price was the most obvious. From the perspective of the online data of the Anju Passenger Line, the price of second -hand housing in September fell slightly by 0.17%month -on -month, and the heat of watching the house also declined to a certain extent this year.

"For the Beijing market, there will definitely be a 'golden nine silver and ten". The transaction volume of second-hand housing is expected to rise quickly to 15,000 to 20,000 units. In some regions, the price of upward prices has become inevitable. "Zhang Dawei believes.

—— Shanghai

58 Dean Zhang Bo of Anjuke Research Institute pointed out that the cooling of the Shanghai market this year began to perform obvious in the second quarter, mainly reflected in the downward volume of second -hand housing and accompanied by the decline in the periphery of the first -hand house.From the perspective of online data, the price of new houses fell slightly by 0.76%year -on -year, and the heat -seeking heat also declined to a certain extent this year.

According to the monitoring data of the middle finger, the newly -built commercial houses (excluding affordable housing) in Shanghai have been transaction below 5,000 units for two consecutive months, and second -hand housing has been sold below the "Rongku Line" for 4 consecutive months.It is expected that the market activity of second -hand housing in Shanghai has recovered, and the transaction volume of second -hand housing has also slowly recovered.

"At present, the traditional 'Golden Nine Silver Ten' stage, the enthusiasm of Shanghai housing companies has increased significantly on the push market, and after the policy is clear, the willingness to enter the market is significantly enhanced and the house purchase strategy is clearer."The Shanghai property market will actively boost, and the active transaction will continue, and there will be important performance in the fields of first -hand houses.Buyers will also be more rational and healthy, and house prices will have a stable foundation and good trend.

—— Guangzhou, Shenzhen

Two days ago, "recognition of houses and not recognizing loans" first came to Guangzhou and Shenzhen.

For the reasons for the policy of policy in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Provincial Planning Housing Policy Research Center, believes that: Guangzhou and Shenzhen's foreign population is concentrated, and new citizens account for about half of the permanent population.Shenzhen is the core city of the Greater Bay Area. The population flow is frequent due to interconnection and work changes in the Greater Bay Area.

"Guangzhou and Shenzhen's recent second -hand housing prices have been adjusted significantly. In July, Guangzhou fell 1%month -on -month, Shenzhen fell 0.9%, significantly higher than Beijing -Shanghai and other hot cities.It is increasing. "Li Yujia said.

He also pointed out that the recovery of commercial housing in Beijing and Shanghai is not as large as Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and the price decline of second -hand houses has begun to narrow.This time, Beijing and Shanghai have also followed up, and the policy expression is consistent with Guangzhou and Shenzhen, which means that the adjustment of the real estate policy is a top -down move.In essence, some policies in the past hot period need to be exited, which is also normal policy adjustment and return.

The bottom of the national real estate market may have been established

"The market downward in August exceeded market expectations, and urgently needed to be adjusted through the policy adjustment of first -tier cities such as the" Golden Nine Silver Ten "and the peak sales season at the end of the year to drive the expected stability." Li Yujia pointed out that including Beishang, Guangzhou and ShenzhenThe three largest metropolitan circle, the metropolitan market market accounts for 70%of the sales amount of the new housing market in the country. This is the basic set of the property market and the starting point of stabilizing the property market.

"The policies of first -tier cities have been tightening in the past. Even if the market began to cool down in the second half of last year, the front line remained unprepared." Zhang Bo believes that the current relaxation of policies also represents that the bottom of the country's market has already been the bottom of the country's market.Establishing that a number of self -residential needs through policies will undoubtedly help the rise of the heat in first -tier cities and drive more cities across the country to get out of the sluggish market.

He also pointed out that the implementation of the policy of "recognizing houses and not recognizing loans" is expected to be more obvious in the front line. On the one hand, due to the demand for replacement, it will drive twoThe number of hand house listing increases, and the volume of second -hand housing is increased simultaneously; on the other hand, the demand for mid -to -high -end houses in the market will also increase, and the demand for replacement needs will be more active, and the market's wait -and -see emotions will greatly reduce.

Chen Wenjing, director of market research director of the China Finger Research Institute, believes that first -tier cities have fully implemented the first set of houses to "recognize houses and do not recognize loans", and localities will also accelerate the implementation of the down payment ratio, reduce the interest rate of two sets of mortgages, and reduce the interest rate of stock loans.Policies are hot and winding, and the real estate market of the core city will usher in a wave of upward market.

"The real estate market of the core city is expected to gradually stabilize, thereby driving the national real estate market to gradually repair. In the next 4 months, whether the national real estate market can stabilize the macro market is important." Chen Wenjing said.