Ye Dehao: Will the seizure of the military in China and Africas traps become ＂bi

Source: Hong Kong 01

Author: Ye Dehao

Following the outbreak of military coup in West Africa Niger (Niger) in July, the military section of power was burned to Gabon on the Atlantic Coast.On August 30th, Ali Bongo ONDIMBA, the President of Gabon, who was just confirmed to be re -elected, was placed under house arms by the soldiers. The officers wearing camouflage uniforms announced on television to launch a coup to seize power and set up a transitional government.The end of the election is not credible, and Gabon is in the "severe system, political, economic and social crisis".

Bron Oligui Nguema, commander of the Republic of the Republic, who has been elected by the military as a transitional government leader, told the French World News that the people were dissatisfied with the government and believed that Bango seemed to violate the Constitution for the third term. "People are talking about this, but no one is responsible, so the military decides (for Gabon) to open a new page. "After the coup, a large number of people appeared on the streets to support coup on Libreville, but no one seemed to spontaneously on the streets to speak for President Bange.

Like a country that has touched the African coup since 2020 (Mali, Bravine Faso, Chad, Guinea, Niger), Gabon is also a former French colony. Now there are about 350 French army in the territory.

Family corruption governance

However, unlike Mohamed Bazoum, who was overthrown by the fair election but overthrown, has been in the Gabeng's regime since 1967.Today, the "Little" Bange, who was overthrown, took over the president's position from his 42 -year -old father in his reign. In 2018, he once sturdy, but he insisted on being overthrown by the military.

and Gabon's elections also seem to have fairness and justice.The election on August 26 did not have international observer supervision, and Bango also implemented a curfew, interrupted the Internet, and stopped broadcasting of multiple international media before the vote.The Internet will be officially announced until the 30th election on the 30th.Bango's campaign opponent Albert Ossa accused Bango's election for fraud.

In this context, although the United States, the European Union, the African Alliance, the President of the Economic Community of West Africa and the Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, France and other aspects criticized Gabon's military coup in all aspects, but Bazham was overthrown with BazhamThe situation is different, and these external forces do not dare to publicize the names to call on the military to return power back to Bange's hand.

Gabon's population is only 2.4 million, and is a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). It exports about 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day. The per capita GDP (GDP Per Capita) exceeds $ 10,000 (about S $ 13,500), Ranked fourth among the south of the Sahara Desert.However, the wealth brought by oil has long been monopolized by the Bango family. Three -year -old people in the country live in poverty, and the unemployment rate is nearly 40 %.

In fact, even France, the former master of the Pango family as the political allies, also sued several children of "Old" Bango's misappropriation of public funds last year.

From this background, it is not difficult for people to understand the people's hatred for the Bange government and their intuitive reaction support for the military coup.However, the changes brought about by the military government are not necessarily positive. Just as Mali and Burkina Faso were controlled by the military, the problem of its domestic Islamic extremist violence became intensified.

Remove a corrupt government itself, and will not automatically bring a government with governance.For this military coup, analysts even speculated that there may be a shadow of other members of the Bange family behind them.After all, Enshima, the leader of the transitional government, is also a group of people, belongs to the same hometown with the Bango family, and is the leader of the Presidential Guard.

"Infectious disease" of coup

After Gabon's fell into a military coup again after Capita, many media used the term "coup conturbing" to report related news.From the data point of view, according to the statistics of economists, in recent years, there are indeed signs of a coup in the world in recent years: from 1960 to 2000, the average success or failure of 40 successfuls or failures around the world will fall in the 2000s.By 22 times, in the 2010s, this number was 17 times, but 14 coup has occurred around the world since the 1920s.

Among the

Africa is the hardest hit area. Since 2020, Mali and Burkinaa have gone through two coup, and Guinea, Chad, Niger and Gabon have occurred.It is worth noting that these countries are in the former French colonies and are concentrated in West Africa or China and Africa.

French President Macron only warned people to be careful of "coup and popularity" in a speech on August 28; Nigerian President Titu, who had previously threatened the military operations against the Niger Military Military Military Action, wasThe criticism of "autocraticism" is spreading in Africa.

People also began to find the potential place for "the next coup".On the map, we don't have to spend too much time. Cameroon and Republic of Congo, which borders Gabon, have the rulers who have been reigned for about 40 years.The trading.

Will the military's seizure become a infectious disease in West Africa and China and Africa?

Many western comments have mentioned that Western power has fallen, and regional organizations such as the African Union and the Western African Community are unable to interfere, and China, Russia and other countries do not mind cooperating with the non -people -oriented government, especially Vagna, which are active in many African countries in Africa countries.The group (Wagner Group) is more suspicious of encouraging military coup.

However, these external factors are still secondary. The main problem is that the potential coup is the ruler of the country itself -such as Gabon's systematic corruption, the raging armed tissue of Mali, etc. -or like France like FranceThis former Lord Kingdom's "reluctance" to the former colony.Without these issues, a country will not rush into a disease that will become "military coup".However, these issues are common in West Africa and China -Africa many countries, but they are likely to make coup into a big popularity in this area.