Source: Wang Bao
Wangbao Society Review
China's real estate market has been continuously thunderstorm, and reports that the debt defaults of real estate companies and related financial products cannot be redeemed.First, Zhongrong Trust, a subsidiary of Zhongzhi Group, had a problem with the credit of Zhongrong Trust. Then the real estate model Country Garden was also unable to pay US dollar bond tickets due to excessive losses, causing liquidity crisis.In addition, in order to avoid cross -breach defaults, SOHO China is actively negotiating with the lender to prepare corporate debt reorganization in order to avoid cross -breach default. Some people worry that the Chinese version of Lehman is about to be staged.
Official soft policy loosening
China's real estate situation is severe, and it is really not to be underestimated, but the sluggish housing market is not news. Compared with the Evergrande storm two years ago, the severity and impact of the China Rong and Country Garden incidents were much smaller.The number of numbers will speak. Compared with the financial figures of Evergrande and Country Garden, which are the core of the two storms, regardless of the overall liquidity, debt structure and financial constitution, the latter is significantly better than the former.Based on the "three red lines" of the physical fitness company's constitution, the asset -liability ratio shall not be greater than 70%, the net debt ratio is not more than 100%, and the cash short debt ratio is greater than 1 after the pre -collection is excluded.The numbers can be said to be perfect at 69.4%, 40%, and 1.6 times, respectively.In contrast, in 2021, Evergrande, these three numbers were 81%, 152.9%, and 0.47 times, and none of the standards.
From the perspective of the overall policy, since the outbreak of Evergrande incident, the attitude of China's official handling of real estate has gradually softened, and the policy has also strictly changed to loosening, and even turning to stimulation. The pressure of policy regulation is not as tight as two or three years ago as tight two or three years ago.EssenceFor example, according to the second quarter monetary policy implementation report released by the People's Bank of China recently, the word "housing does not fry" has been removed, and the central government will optimize the real estate policy in a timely manner, such as implementing 16 finances and increasing housing.Financial support, such as leasing and construction, and extending loan support for insurance delivery, this shows that at this stage, the Central Committee of China will not watch the continuous spread of real estate storms.
It is worth noting that the central policy steering support is definitely a strong needle for the real estate industry at the core of the storm.Especially for model students such as Country Garden, because of the relatively good financial constitution, as long as policy support, it can usually rely on its own operating ability to settle difficulties.For example, in terms of liquidity liabilities, most of the Country Garden concentrated in the two items of bank loans and contract liabilities (pre -sale houses), with a total proportion of up to 60 %.Dedicated the latest bank loan exhibition period, insurance diplomatic relations and other measures can effectively play a role, and it is expected to reduce the risk of subsequent defaults and related spillover.
Short -term severe long -term support
From the perspective of individual finance or overall policy, this round of real estate storm is still within the controllable range, and the impact effect is less than Evergrande incident.If Evergrande can slowly get out of the bankruptcy mud, such as Evergrande Automobile, Evergrande Property and China Evergrande have resumed trading in Hong Kong since the end of July and resumed transactions in Hong Kong.At all times, even expanding the formation of a systemic financial crisis.
Of course, this does not mean that this round of real estate storm does not need to pay attention to it, and can be freely operated by the market mechanism.On the contrary, in the face of the severe economic situation, real estate, as an important economic locomotive, requires policy support.China's housing market is closely related to policies, and the housing market is highly affected by policies.This also means that in addition to supporting real estate measures, more policy beef must be brought out, which may be separated from Beijing's long -term policy, but for the housing market in the integrated ward, maintaining a heartbeat is the top priority.
In actual practices, even if the People's Bank of China has recently increased water power, it has continued to reduce the seven -day reverse repurchase interest rate, one -year medium -term borrowing convenience (MLF) and the loan market quotation interest rate, and inject a large number of market liquidity.However, this comprehensive water release measure is not only unique real estate, and the flow of funds does not guarantee that it will run to the related industries. In the end, it may only be regarded as a signal of the bottom, which is difficult to apply the right medicine.Revitalizing the housing market also needs to launch more combination of fists.In addition to continuous interest rate cuts to provide necessary funds for living water, how to further loosen the selective credit control of the housing market, such as relaxing the three red line standards or real estate loan concentration management systems, is the direction of thinking.
It is not allowed to deny that the short -term real estate has reappeared the storm, which has indeed brought many uncertainty and risks to China's economic recovery.However, the crisis is a turnaround.If you can make good use of this opportunity, review related issues and risks, and use policy support to adjust and optimize real estate and economic physique, it is not a good thing.After all, if you want to spend the darkness before dawn, you still have to be patient and explore.
