The Russian and Ukraine War became the opportunity to take the initiative to consider security guarantee by exploring the possibility of "doing things in Taiwan".However, on the occasion of "Taiwan," to support Taiwan, the Japanese nationals and governments have not officially started discussions.In this case, if there is something in Taiwan, will the Japanese government decide to intervene and will the Self -Defense Forces dispatch?
On the occasion of discussing this issue, the first important point is to see if there is a legal basis for responding to the situation.
How do Japan apply for force attack?In addition to the attack on Taiwan's island, under the same confirmation of the force attack against the U.S. military base in Okinawa and the invasion of the Shougang Island, or the risk of these force attacks is obviously imminent, the cabinet meeting decides that the situation is to Japan.With the consent of Congress, the Prime Minister issued a defense dispatched order, and the Self -Defense Force could take military operations.
This situation is a clear "Japan's things". The military operations adopted by the Self -Defense Force to protect Japanese territory and sovereignty, national life and property security.In addition to the invasive areas, troops will be deployed towards areas that may be further attacked.In this case, it is a question to how much the Japanese Self -Defense Force can give the US Self -Defense Force to the US military that cope with the invasion of the Chinese army.The Self -Defense Force cannot neglect the warning against Russia and North Korea.However, according to Japan and the United States Security Treaty, Japan may also fight side by side with the U.S. military, and it will also promise to give strong backup as much as possible.
Secondly, a situation to consider is that Taiwan is attacked, but Japan has not been attacked.Beijing claims that the issue of Taiwan is a problem of internal affairs, and is extremely vigilant about the interference in Taiwan's interference in Taiwan.For Beijing, the biggest obstacle to attacking Taiwan is the US military. It is reasonable to attack the US military base in the pure military, but it will also lead to a strong response from the U.S. military and make Japan immediately intervene.It can be considered that Beijing only attacked Taiwan's island to create the impression that "the extension of the civil war, not the world war between the two major countries in the world".
For this situation, the Japanese government is likely to identify it as a "survival crisis."The United States may ask Japan to do what time: first, latter support for the U.S. military that operations around Taiwan; 2. Sinking the Chinese navy ships through submarines; 3.Cover, etc.
Regarding the second point, the Japanese side can take off the attack of the submarine derived from the US Navy, but it cannot cover up the third point.At that time, China regards Japan as a war country and cannot rule out the possibility of attacking Japan, so the Japanese government may refuse the request of the third point of the US military.
There is a problem here. After the defeat of World War II, Japan has been avoided the possibility of becoming a war party, and the discussion must be paid at that time.Japanese citizens can tolerate this about to what extent they dives, and have not reached a consensus.Faced with the sacrifice of many self -defense officers and soldiers, the Japanese citizens may be shaken, and the government may also be difficult to determine to intervene in "Taiwan."China knows the weakness of Japan, and it will definitely shake the hearts of Japan in the cognitive battle.
What will happen if the Japanese government refuses to include all the United States requests in the first and second points?
If the U.S. military decides not to intervene in "Taiwan's things" due to the request that Japan refuses to support, the simulation results of the "Taiwan's Things" announced by the US Strategy and International Issues Research Center (CSIS) can also be pushed.The two armies would not be damaged. After the fierce battle, Taiwan was finally occupied by China.If the Chinese army successfully occupied Taiwan, although the navy and air force will suffer huge losses, because of the victory, the morale will be greatly vibrated, and Japan will not have to take the front line with that island as the front line to form a confrontation with China.
China has recovered Taiwan's next goal, and it may consider capturing the inherent territory "Jian Ge island" (Diaoyu Islands), which is self -proposed.The fish and fishing island from Keelung Port in this island of Taiwan is 170 kilometers. For China, it will be more convenient to enter the Jiange Island than before.In addition, in addition to the islands of Jiange, the Chinese Maritime Police will also act frequently around the island of that island, which will have a huge burden on the police capacity of the Japanese Maritime Security Agency.
If the United States fights without Japanese aid, although it will eventually win, the process will be severe and the loss will be huge.At this time, the US government and the US military's dissatisfaction and distrust of Japan will rise. In the face of the condemnation of U.S. citizens, they will not be able to maintain Japan and the United States.Even if the Japan -US security treaty is maintained, it cannot be fully expected that the US military's support for Defense Shouge islands.The islands of Jiange will soon be taken away.
In the war, the death of the Allies and deaths will cause the trust relationship between Japan and the United States to be seriously damaged.Towards the nuclear military route.However, the premise of the latter route is that it may be more severe than before, so the Japanese citizens who have retreated once will not choose this item.
Inference this way, even if Japan is not directly attacked, once the "Taiwan happens", the Japanese government will also decide at least to support the US military based on the law.This is because it will be more unfavorable to Japan without post aid.However, in the face of crisis, the situation where the national opinion is divided into two may cause the government to hesitate, and it will also be opposed in Congress.In this way, it will not only expand the loss of war, but also cause a longer time to clean up the situation.
"There is something in Taiwan" is not only about being directly attacked by force. Even if it is just a Taiwan island, it is also necessary to face a crisis of survival for Japan. All Japanese citizens must reach a consensus on this.Therefore, from the present of peace, we need to discuss.
(the author is a professor at the Institute of Overseas Affairs of Tuojin University)
