Taiwan Vice President Lai Qingde set off on August 12 to participate in the President President's inauguration ceremony to transit the United States.Prior to transit the United States, the Beijing Ambassador to the United States announced publicly at the Asbon Security Forum that Beijing's primary task "is to prevent Lai Qingde from visiting the United States. This is like a gray rhino that is rushing to us."During the visit, the Taiwan Affairs Office issued a statement that Lai was called "a downright" troublemaker ".It is closely observed whether Beijing will increase the tension of the Taiwan Strait due to its visit to the Taiwan Strait.

However, after Beijing's tough announcement, there is still restraint in the actual response, and the Taiwan Strait has maintained a relatively calm.When Beijing visited, the exercise was conducted in the East China Sea from 12th to 14th.Lai Gang returned to Taipei, and Beijing announced that it was planned to conduct exercises in part of the South China Sea from August 18th to 22nd.On August 19, the Eastern theater of the PLA announced that it would hold a joint sea and air training around Taiwan.If the field of three exercises is either a distance from Taiwan or the scale of the exercise is relatively small.

There are at least two factors behind Beijing's relative restraint:

1. Beijing does not want to affect the "overall situation" of the United States and China relations due to dependence.

Byndon and Xi Jinping negotiated for three hours during the Bali Twenty Group of Bali last November.During the meeting, the two sides agreed to promote the difficulties of the relationship between the two countries.However, after the spy balloon incident at the beginning of this year, the momentum of US -China relations stopped and declined. Recently, it was only that important American officials such as Brinken, Yellen, and Kerry visited China and restarted exchanges.

The US -China economy faces a lot of challenges after the crown disease is popular.The United States has just controlled inflation.Beijing faces difficult problems such as domestic consumption and weak investment, high unemployment rates, bubbles in the real estate market, and financial black holes in the local government. The economy can be said to have fallen into the slow recovery of "long crown disease".Both Washington and Beijing have the pressure to deal with domestic problems.The Asia -Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit will be held in San Francisco. All circles will meet if you meet again, so that US -China relations will return to the orbit planned when Bali Island.In June of this year, Brinken met with Xi Jin's usual in Beijing, and Xi specially emphasized that both the United States and China agreed to implement the consensus reached with Bayon in Bali.This is an important signal.

Under such a context, Beijing's restraint on Lai's low -key visits this time is not surprising.Furthermore, if Beijing is too tough to Taiwan, the US presidential election season is coming, and it will not guarantee that the Chinese eagle politicians will not operate the Chinese threat theory and strive for voters support.This does not meet the interests of Beijing.

2. Beijing's restraint cannot be related to the planning of Lai's visit with Taiwan and the United States.

On the one hand, Lai Qingde's transit in New York and San Francisco during the visit was compared to the leaders' arrangements in New York and Los Angeles in April this year.Generally speaking, the better the interaction between Taiwan and the United States, the closer to Washington.The schedule of transit shows that Lai enjoyed the "quasi -president" treatment.

On the other hand, Lai Qingde's visit was low -key and low -key.The overseas banquet is mainly carried out in the form of closed doors, and the current US current politicians attending the city are mainly municipalities.Except for meeting with the US President Rosenberg in San Francisco, Lai did not meet with U.S. officials or parliamentarians.In terms of think tanks, Lai has no activities.In Paraguay, although the special envoy of Biden and Biden, Harlan interacted with enthusiasm, but could no longer be able to "meet unexpectedly" with Vice President He Jinli (Harris) -Las' special envoy attended the president's inauguration ceremony and met Lai Qingde.

Lai Qingde's visit, which represents the following years of "tough diplomatic" in Cai Yingwen in recent years.The core of the "tough diplomacy" is not humble, stick to the bottom line, and does not give up under pressure, but not provocative.At the beginning of the year, the meeting of Cai Yingwen and the Speaker of the US House of Representatives McCarthy was one of the models of "tough diplomacy".On the one hand, in the threat of Taipei regardless of the threat of Beijing's military exercises, after McCarthy expressed his willingness, Tsai Ing -wen insisted on holding the "Cai Maihui".On the other hand, the location of the meeting was selected in Los Angeles, not the Taipei or the East Coast of the United States, which reduced the sensitivity of the meeting.In addition to Cai Mai's unsatisfactory, military intimidation and response are still proper.

Lai's visit arrangement, such as "Cai Maihui", does not give up, but not provocative.It is impossible for Taipei to change the practice of Taiwan and the United States because of the opposition to visit the United States. However, this does not mean that Lai will take the opportunity to stimulate Beijing.Conversely, he keeps low -key.Finally, under the risk of cooperation in Taiwan and the United States, the relative stability of the cross -strait situation is maintained.

There are at least two inspirations for the future of the United States, China and Taiwan in the future:

1. The US -China relations maintain a certain degree of stability, which is beneficial to maintain stability for cross -strait relations.

If Taimei wants to scare Beijing to attack and scare, or even want to obscure Beijing's one -sided change of the status quo, it must not only show the ability and determination to bear Beijing's pressure, but also to make Beijing unsatisfactory to maintain the status quo, but still holds "Acceptable attitude.

If the U.S. -China relations are broken, Beijing does not have to consider cross -strait relations to affect US -China relations. Therefore, once tough measures are taken to Taiwan, there will be no concern.Therefore, in order to maintain the stability of the area, on the one hand, it is necessary to adhere to the bottom line and reduce the incentives of Beijing's tough policy on the other hand.

2. The United States and China should maintain a certain mutual understanding and tacit understanding

Lai Qingde's low -key visit was similar to that when Chen Jianren visited Dominica in New York during the vice president of 2016.At that time, the US regulatory media interviews did not arrange a photo with overseas Chinese.From this perspective, it is indeed a convention to rely on this trip.

However, this time the arrangement of dependence on transit, with his arrangements for his visit to Hongdu in 2022, compared with the differences in the United States, the difference is large.Last transit, although there was no chance to visit the East Coast of the United States, there were calls or video conferences with many American dignitaries.

Two visits, Lai Du is the Vice President, and this time it has added the identity of the Democratic Progressive Party's presidential candidate.It stands to reason that less than 150 days left in the presidential election in 2024, Lai Ying can seize the opportunity and once again explained the diplomatic concepts of the country's cross -strait diplomacy to the United States.The United States has the practice of "interview" Taiwan candidates, which is optimistic about it.However, while relying on the United States, he did not arrange more political activities.

The author believes that there should be a certain degree of tacit understanding between Taiwan and the United States to achieve the results of "meaningful". There is no need to over -stimulate Beijing for highlighting the publicity effect.At the same time, this may also be the arrangements made between Washington and Beijing, under a certain mutual understanding.

"Toughness Diplomacy" is easy to do.If there is no excellent tacit understanding and trust between Taiwan and the United States, Taipei is easy to control in terms of cross -strait relations, either excessive tough, or an alternative accident.At the time of the Taiwan government, any new leader must run in with Washington.Lai is a member of the Cai Guan's team. How to effectively grasp and maintain the stability of the Tsai government era is a trusted Taiwan -US relationship, which is still a problem that Lai team will face in the future.

Author Hong Qichang is the former chairman of the Straits Exchange Foundation

Yin Liqiao is a researcher at Harvard University Fei Zhengqing Center