Lianhe Zaobao published on August 1, a commentary article in Mr. Gu Erde, is there a crisis of suffering in the stable Lai Qingde? ——The insights in it aroused my interest.However, some of the words in the article are questionable.
Gu Erd pointed out: "Lai Qingde, who represents the DPP, continued to lead in polls, and the Non -Democratic Party camp is still in a state of division." This statement seems to be no problem, but it is not rigorous enough.At present, there is no non -civilian party camp. The Kuomintang, the People's Party, and even the power of the times originally belonged to different camps.As far as the Kuomintang and the People are concerned, the two sides are different in terms of political ideas and values (Ke Wenzhe mentioned that the two parties are different).Different from the People's Democratic Party and the New Party, the people's party is not separated from the Kuomintang.
Mr. Gu thought: "From the perspective of the trend of polls, Lai Qingde has maintained a 36%lead in the competition of the three. Basically, the basic disk of the green camps supports him, and at the same time, he can grab some middle voters.. "Do Green Camp Basic Pan Guo Zhen and unanimously support Lai Qingde?This view is questionable.In the past, a saying in politics in Taiwan was a saying: the DPP primaries were "killed to see bones", and they would unite after the election.In fact, it is not enough.In the local election in 2022, in Pingtung County, which was "green to juice", DPP candidate Zhou Chunmi (49.09%of the votes) only defeated the Kuomintang candidate Su Qingquan (46.59%).Some green camps should give up voting or even renamed Su Qingquan.Earlier in the party, Zhou Chunmi defeated Zhuang Ruixiong and Zhong Jiabin.Whether the two defeats later assisted Zhou Chunmi, there were doubts -the real situation may be "superficial unity, but actually may not be supported."In the 2024 election, some people in the Pan -New Trending Department in the DPP are just "superficial unity" to Lai Qingde?
In early July, Guo Xinliang, Speaker of Tainan City, was detained.He and his long -term political partner Chen Tingfei (DPP legislator, belonging to the Zhengzheng Parliament) and the new trend of the DPP represented by Lai Qingde are inconsistent.Earlier, the current Speaker of Tainan City, Qiu Lili (the same faction with Lai Qingde), was involved in the bribery case, but has not been detained (nor was was expelled from the Democratic Progressive Party).The "judicial treatment" suffered by Guo and Qiu is contrast, which will cause some blue and green people to suspect political intervention judicially (such as Cai Yuhui, the chief of the KMT group of the Tainan City Council).Some of the Parliament forces will be "unhappy" because of Guo's detention, etc., and it is difficult to support Lai Qingde sincerely.Because of this, Cai Qiru, a former legislator of the People's Party, said in the Political Theory program: Some local Democratic Progressive Party's local piles (including the chairman of the backup association of the Zhengxian Parliament) said in front of her that she would support Ke Wenzhe -they were actually afraid of Lai QingdeSelected.
Huang Guochang is one of the leaders of the Sun Flower Study Games, and founded the power of the times with Lin Yizuo, which can be said to be an indicator of "Little Green".However, in July, he hosted a parade of "July 16th Kaidao Fairness and Justice Save Taiwan" for holding the "July 16th" parade because of Chen Zhihan (the curator of the Internet celebrity "), deepening his contradiction with the DPP.The DPP's mouth, wings, etc. have strengthened his attack on him.A small part of the green camps he represents may not vote for Lai Qingde in the future.As for some "extreme" Taiwan independence elements, whether they will support Lai Qingde, who will be regarded as "Hua Du", there are also questions.
The author also proposes: "Beijing will keep a distance or intervene in the election, and it will also affect the results of the election campaign -the past experience is: Beijing usually helps the non -green camp."The Green Camp's "throbbing", the DPP should not be nervous in response to Beijing's intervention, and should even "be happy."However, in 2022, the local election of the Democratic Progressive Party was defeated. When some green camps summarized the reasons, they would mention the "cognitive operations" of the mainland government -and this shows that they believe that Beijing has helped the non -green camp "busy" instead of being "busy" instead of being a non -green camp, not a "busy", not a non -green camp, not a big busy camp, not a big busy camp, not a big busy camp, not a "busy", not a big green camp, not a big busy camp, not a big busy camp, not a big busy camp, not a "busy", not a big green camp, not a big busy camp, not a big busy camp, not a big busy camp, not a big busy camp, not a "busy", not a big green camp, rather than"Surprisingly" (local elections in 2018 are actually similar).
Gu Erd also proposed: "If the topic of the United States and China is properly handled, the above emergencies have not occurred. Lai Qingde's election is still stable and optimistic."In the case of the incident, is Lai Qingde's election really "stable and optimistic"?With reference to a number of polls at present, Lai Qingde's support is leading competitors, but the advantage is not enough to ensure victory.At present, his election situation is relatively optimistic and not stable enough, and he will face many tests in the future.In recent years, the Democratic Progressive Party's governing burden and the concern of the society's concerns about the party's corruption will be restricted to the rise of Lai Qingde's poll to a certain extent.
The author is a time -ned judge, researcher of cross -strait relations
