Source: Voice of the United States

Author: Lin Baihong

Thailand held three joint military exercises including land, sea, and air with China from July to September, causing attention from all walks of life.Observer said that this shows that China is actively attracting Thailand, and the Thai military also tries to consolidate its own forces while the new government settled in the new government to consolidate its own forces.After that, the defense cooperation with Beijing may also be limited.

At present, the two countries are holding the "Falcon Strike 2023" joint training in the Ulong base in Thailand.It will continue until the 21st, and it will also launch the joint training for the sixth time.

In addition, special war troops in Thailand and China will participate in the "2023 Joint Strike 2023" exercise in the Central China Huali Mansion from August 16th to September 2nd.

From September 3rd to September 10th, the Thai and Chinese Navy will host the "Blue Strike" Zhongtai Thailand in Chunwu Lifu, Luo Yongfu and Jiazhu in eastern Thailand.Navy joint military exercise.The military exercise is held every two years and hosted by Thailand and China.

In response to the recent military cooperation of China -Thailand, Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu said in Beijing last month with the Thai Army Commander Narongpan Jitkaewtae in Beijing.Thailand has put the important consensus of the leaders of the two countries "and hopes that they will" jointly maintain regional stability together to ensure the long -term stability of the Asia -Pacific ".

In response, Chen Chao, a professor of the Department of Public Affairs and International and Cross -Strait Affairs of Taiwan Fo Guang University, analyzed by the International and Cross -Strait Affairs Office. In June, Thailand invited the invitation of Southeast Asian countries, India, and Chinese Foreign Ministers to discuss Myanmar issues by informal talks, but it was suffered by an informal talk, but it was suffered by an informal talk.In some countries' opposition and highlighting the differences in Asianan, but now they hurriedly strengthened their military contact with China, showing that the Thai military government hopes that before the local election dust settled, the first step is to determine Bangkok's Myanmar and Chinese policies, so that the new government must be necessary"Xiao Ji Cao Sui" to protect the inherent interests of the military government.

There are still variables in the Thai election, the military takes advantage of the situation to draw China

Chen Shangzheng told the Voice of America: "I think the Thai government is going to announce these three military exercises with China.Party leader) The new government it represents must be relatively beautiful, and its relationship with China must be alienated, so if it (referring to the Thai military) can now set these three military exercises to make a fixed adjustment,It also means that after the government came to power, it must follow it, so I think this is the wrestling of domestic politics in Thailand. "

Thailand held the House of Representatives for the House of Representatives on May 14th, and Pagoda became the only nominee of the new Prime Minister, but he lost in the voting of the Prime Minister's election.Originally, the Thai Parliament had a second meeting on July 19, but it was still the only candidate, because the pagoda could not be nominated for the second time, and lost his qualifications for the Prime Minister.Some circles expect that the Democratic party will also propose another president of the Thai party.

Zhuang Jiaying, an associate professor of the Department of Political Department of the National University of Singapore, also told VOA for the United States that there may be a recent political dispute in Thailand, which may have changed the dynasties for the first time in the past 10 years, and all parties are actively trying to find domestic or foreign partners who can cooperate.As a result, the military was found in China to consolidate its power, and because the Thai military has always been the target of Beijing's key cooperation in Southeast Asia, the two sides were closely launched and closely launched military exchanges.

Zhuang Jiaying said: "China is also quite active to win Thailand's political forces. This also includes the military. Because the military is a relatively powerful force in Thailand's conservative forces and political forces, China is also to Thailand.The military has invested a lot of investment. In addition, the Thai military feels that China is the first, which may be relatively small in human rights, and then its (military procurement) price will be more reasonable.Not so much consideration. "

The complexity of the US military is more than Thailand

All signs show that in recent years, Southeast Asia has become a field where China and the United States have intensified competition. Therefore, while China and Thailand have frequently held military exercises, all circles have also paid attention to whether the security defense cooperation between the United States and Thailand has changed.

Bangkok has always been one of the most solid allies in the United States during the Cold War, especially during the Vietnam War. In 2003, it was even identified as "Mnna), which was recognized as" mainly non -North Atlantic Convention Organization "(MNNA), which also won the United States.The government designated non -NATO members who have strategic cooperation with the U.S. military.

However, after Thailand had a military coup in 2014, US -Thailand relations retreated, and China's influence on Thailand gradually increased.In late May of this year, the Thai Air Force publicly stated that the United States refused to sell the F-35-hiding fighter on the sale of F-35, mainly due to training and technical requirements.

Aviation Week (Aviation Week) quoted the analysis of the US consulting company "Asia Group" and former U.S. Air Force and pilot Trey Meeks. This shows "fromFrom the perspective of the US government, (Thailand's requirements for the F-35) have never been seriously considered, because Thailand "has no good record in technical security", it also shows that the United States has faced the most unstable geopolitics since the Cold War.On the occasion of the environment, "challenges" in balanced Indo -Pacific security and military sales.

Despite the national defense cooperation between Bangkok and Washington and Beijing, Greg Raymond, a Southeast Asian expert at the National University of Australia, also said that China may be using military exercises with Thailand to try to far away from the distance between MeitaiHowever, he emphasized that most of the recent exercises in Thailand and China are held every year, not that this year's sudden announcement will be expanded, and even if bilateral military exchanges have increased, the essence of training is not as good as the long -term military drill of Meitai.

Rui Meng told the Voice of America: "Most of the time, (Thailand) officers are much more proficient in English than Chinese, so they can conduct more complicated military exercises such as air combat with (the United States) and conduct in ChinaThe Air Force exercises are relatively simple. It may be that the Chinese pilot first performs the task, and then the Thai pilot is driven by the plane. In fact, they have not conducted fighting training like air fighting. Therefore, we should not overestimate (Thailand and China) The influence of these exercises will be held because Thailand and the United States have more important defense cooperation. "

Thai -US military sales cooperation expands the middle

The most important defense cooperation between Thailand and the United States is the annual "COBRA GOLD" multi -national joint military exercise, and it is also the largest military exercise in Southeast Asia.

The "Golden Cobra Snake" held at the end of February this year involved 30 countries and more than 7,000 people participated. Among them, the number of US military participants reached nearly 6,000, which was the largest number of U.S. military in 10 years.

In addition, the exercise is also included in the "Space Safety Exercise" for the first time this year, focusing on the possible impact of the solar storm on military operations.Observer believes that this highlights the geopolitics of the United States highly paying attention to the India -Tae -region.