Source: Taiwan Wangbao Society Theory

U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen's visit to China has not obtained a substantial harvest, but it also breaks the indifferent deadlock between China and the United States, and has a possibility of unlimited possibilities for the restoration of communication between the two countries.Biden Climate Special Envoy Cry will continue to visit China to discuss the cooperation between the two parties in the climate change. The US Minister of Commerce Raymond Dot also stated that it is a good development to visit China.Although communication dialogue means that although contradictions between the United States and the United States are inextricable, fierce competition is inevitable, but in the fields of economy, finance, and energy saving and carbon reduction, there is still room for negotiation and cooperation.

Mercy Talking Infits Decrease

After the epidemic, the economies of China and the United States have their own economic problems and pressure. If they can create a space for cooperation through dialogue and communication, it will definitely help the pressure slow down.Taking inflation as an example, the Fed has raised interest rates for 20 yards in a row, interest rates rose to more than 5%, but inflation is still high.In addition to the Russian and Ukraine War, it is difficult to blame the US's high tariffs on Chinese imported goods.If the second stage of economic and trade negotiations can be restarted and the reduction of or lifting some tariffs, the US inflation pressure can naturally be reduced.

Taking the rapid increase of US debt as an example, the Congress extended the debt limit to 2025 in early June. The issue of US debt default was temporarily relieved, but the omen did not solve it, but the condition was delayed backwards. In 2025, it would still break out.For a large number of U.S. debt countries such as Japan and China, the US debt default crisis is rearranged every few years, and the willingness to hold will inevitably be reduced or even accelerate the selling. This is by no means the United States.After all, the US debt represents not only the US government's ability to raise funds, but also symbolizes the US dollar status.

For the second largest debtor China, US debt is a favorable negotiation chip.This is also the reason why the outside world speculates that Yellen mainland banks mainly hope that China will increase its holdings of US debt, at least to stop selling.Interestingly, China increased its holdings in March this year, increasing $ 20.5 billion. Although it decreased slightly in April, compared with the US $ 173.2 billion in 2022, China's attitude towards U.S. debt has indeed changed significantly.

The Sino -US economy has shifted from confrontation to cooperation, which is not only beneficial to the United States, but also has positive significance to China.China's economic recovery is not as expected. This year's economic growth rate is estimated to be above 5%, but the data announced in recent months is not satisfactory, showing that consumption and investment confidence is insufficient.The China Development and Reform Commission held a private enterprise symposium twice within eight days to discuss the resolution of the business dilemma of private enterprises, which shows that the pressure of investment is very high.If China and the United States can use the opportunity to restart dialogue and explore the opportunity to expand economic cooperation, it should be helpful for improving investment and consumption confidence.

There are more cooperation in the United States and China than competition

If the Sino -US economy can restart cooperation, it is also a great profit for the global economy.Since the start of the Sino -US trade war in 2018, the global supply chain has accelerated from long -chain to short chain, global economy has moved to fragmentation, and the result of the transfer of multinational companies' transfer of production lines not only increases the cost of enterprise production, but also causes harm to the global economy.At the beginning of the year, the IMF reported report, saying that global economic fragmentation may destroy the benefits brought by globalization. The deeper the degree of fragmentation, the higher the price paid.

IMF propose three estimated situations.First of all, if the global economy is severely decoupled due to fragmentation, the world's output will be reduced by 7%.Secondly, it is also the worst. If it is decoupled by technology on the basis of the foregoing, the global economic loss may be up to 12%.Finally, even limited fragmentation, the world's output will shrink by 0.2%.Regardless of that situation, fragmentation will pay the global economy.

IMF President George Ava and the President of the European Central Bank Latard not only appealed once, that countries around the world should try their best to avoid fragmented development of global economy.Especially in the field of trade, finance and technology, there should be restoration of dialogue as soon as possible.

According to IMF statistics, after the start of the Sino-US trade war, the average global economic growth rate is only 2.5%in the past five years (2019-2023, 2023, 2023, and 2023, compared with the first five years (2014-2014-2018) average of 3.5%, a reduction of up to one percentage point.Even if it is not counted in the two -year departure value of 2020 and 2021, the average is only 3%, which is still lower than the first five years.Of course, there are many types of global economic variables, and the fragmented results caused by high competition between China and the United States are just one of them, but it is not allowed to deny. From the point of view of time, the Sino -US trade war in 2018 is indeed a critical turn.

The China and the United States are needed for each other. The two countries' economies have shifted from confrontation to cooperation. For the global economic development, it is definitely a lot of benefits.As Yellen said at a press conference before returning to the United States, although there are still major differences in China and the United States, the world is large enough to make China and the United States prosper and develop.It is expected that Sino -US relations are no longer more competitive than cooperation, but cooperation than competition.