Lu Shaowei: robbers?justice?La Russias assets for Ukraine to rebuild

Source: Wind Media

Author: Lu Shaowei

Recently, there is a new issue of "annoying" in Europe: Do you want, can you use Russian assets frozen by the European Union for Ukraine to rebuild?The issue of more philosophical is: Is it just justice or a robber?

Half of Russia invaded Ukraine's foreign exchange base was frozen by Europe and the United States.

Of course, the incident is related to the invasion of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. After the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Europe and the United States had severe economic sanctions on Russia's unprecedented examples. One of them was the frozen Russian central bank's assets in Europe and the United States.

Russia is a large household in terms of foreign exchange deposit. Even if it is sanctioned by Europe and the United States, its foreign exchange deposit still ranks fourth in the world and has reached its fourth with a amount of 580 billion US dollars (the amount of the initial period of last year of the war exceeded 600 billion US dollars).After Crimea was sanctioned by Europe and the United States, Russia had consciously transferred assets to avoid risks, but in reality, such a huge foreign exchange base could only avoid risks and could not be transferred.About half of the foreign exchange deposits frozen in Europe and the United States accounted for about half, up to 300 billion US dollars (S $ 406.1 billion), of which about $ 217 billion was frozen by the European Union.The reason for freezing is like the export of Russian oil. It is to cut off the gold aid of Russia's continued war and prevent Russia's war machines unable to operate.

The controversy to this step is not too big. At most, those "potential" are sanctioned countries. We must start to worry about how to deal with foreign exchange bases and assets.

However, this time Europe and the United States are on the bottom of frozen foreign exchange deposits, and they have to take a big step forward -they want to take these Russian assets for Ukraine for reconstruction.Then rely on the good use (rebuilding Ukraine).

Intuitive thinking, this method seems to be indispensable. Russia is an invader and confiscated its assets to compensate for the victimized Ukraine.But the actual situation is not so simple. This approach may attract legal and financial risks other than expected, and more serious is the "historical risk" in the real world.

Law and financial risks are high

War compensation, since ancient times, but basically determined by negotiations and contracts between war countries. Of course, they are also the defeat countries to pay compensation.For example, the third party of the non -war country (such as the European and American countries in the Russian and Ukraine War), because the assets of a war country were originally kept, and the bank decided to give it (in the name of compensation) another warring country, it should be considered the first to be regarded as the first.Case.

Because of this, it is difficult to find a clear basis in international law, and even the provisions that are just spiritual support may not be available. This approach can be said to end the system and spirit of "protecting the central bank's asset exemption".It is expected.The Foreign Media Financial Times quoted a German official as saying that the German judicial minister studied the European Union's proposal to confiscate the assets of the Russian central bank. The conclusion was that these proposals were not feasible in law, and the spokesman of the minister refused to comment on this statement.

The second problem is financial risks. If the European Union can confiscate the euro foreign exchange deposit in Russia, the message issued to the outside world is that the euro is not 100 % trust.This concern and problem, the European Central Bank President Lagarde said the most clearly: "Brussels take any action and take Russia to claim to belong to its own funds, which may harm the international attraction of the euro."One day becomes the goal of sanctions, they may face the same destiny as Russia and "abandon the euro".

This principle should not be difficult to understand. If a bank can determine the money of the deposit households based on its value, right and wrong judgment, or even good or evil, it is not necessary to allow the deposit households to be allowed to hand in the third party. May I ask?Who would exist this bank?

And it should be noted that Russia is an invaders, and Europe and the United States have the power to seize their assets to Ukraine. This narrative is really the mainstream of Europe and the United States, but it may not be narrative accepted by other countries. Other countries will worry about it.When Nu European and American countries are sanctioned, foreign exchange bases and assets stored in Europe and the United States are seized.

Historical factors risk, the country of aggressive countries can follow this case to claim forward to the invaders

The last greater risk is also the most powerful reason for Germany: historical risk.If the European Union can directly take the money of the Russian central bank and compensate for the victims of the war, this "innovative" approach is likely to cause endless trouble.

Because this world from the past to the present, there will never be war, and there are many war -harmed countries -both have the previous case to follow, whether Greece and Poland can make compensation requirements to Germany on World War II, and ask the EU directly to Germany.The money is transferred to them?Can Vietnam also find France and the United States for money?India (and many pre -colonies) find British claims (think about the people who have killed these colonies in these colonies)?Chinese, South Korea and Asian Simpan are again asking for money with Japan?Iraq and Afghanistan go to the United States to collect debts ...

This possible risk, German officials: "This will start a troublesome situation." No wonder Germany is the most reserved opinion on this approach in European countries.The profits of foreign exchange bases instead of the principal to Ukraine, Germany is cautious and fearful, because no matter how cleverly argued (such as the EU Chairman emphasized only the "only the profit part"), the significance and influence are actually the same.of.

However, in this incident, the United States is obviously much less. In May, the US Department of Justice approved the Russian oligopoly assets to pay Ukraine. Although it is not the asset of the Russian Central Bank, it is close to the meaning.Minister Garlan also said that more such measures will be taken in the future. The next step should be processed for the assets of the Russian central bank. In a statement, he said: "Although this is the first time the United States has confiscated Russian funds to rebuild Ukraine.But it will not be the last time. "

overthrow the "central bank's property exemption system", and then suffer from endless and crack down on the trust of the US dollar euro

It is indeed a big deal to confiscate the central bank's assets, which violates the so -called "central bank's property exemption system". This system is actually the United States.The property of Heeld for its Own Account enjoys an exemption of execution, and there will be this rule. In addition to the US government at that time, if the court seizes that foreign central bank's investment assets become the norm, the United States will face many troubles.The status of currency and the purpose of consolidating New York's international financial center status.

But this time the Russian -U -U -U -Uta war attracted sanctions in Europe and the United States, so that countries outside the West have been shocked by the country's national interests to the United States so abuse of US dollar hegemony and privileges.The foundation, even the US Treasury Secretary Yellen acknowledged the impact of these sanctions on the US dollar hegemony.If Europe and the United States further from frozen assets, to confiscation of Russian assets, and to Ukraine for reconstruction, its impact will be more and more far -reaching than the previous financial sanctions. Whether Europe and the United States will take this step, and wait and see.

As for whether this approach is righteous, punish aggression, or robbed the people's assets of other people's assets, it is probably an endless, never answer and consensus.