U.S. Treasury Minister Yellen visited China for the first time as a financial minister, and the main topic could not bypass the issue of US debt.
The information updated by the US Treasury website on June 16 showed that the scale of US federal government debt exceeded $ 32 trillion (about S $ 4.33 billion).According to a report issued by the US Congress Budget Office (CBO) on June 28, it is expected that by 2053, US Treasury bonds will rise to 181%of the GDP, which is about three times the average of the past 30 years.
On June 3, US President Biden signed a bill on the upper limit of federal government debt and budget, ending the uncertainty that may be in the United States that may fall into the government's debt defaults.The debt limit of the bill is effective until the beginning of 2025, and the expenditure of fiscal year and fiscal year in 2024 and 2025.Although the US debt limit crisis may make people forget for a period of time, from the long -term perspective, the US economy and even the global financial market will continue to be affected in the future, and risks are still difficult to ignore.
During the process of debt crisis, the essential issue of the debt crisis has been concealed or ignored the debt crisis.The bill only decided to suspend debt limit to the early 2025, which is a dangerous "game" because it allows the Biden government to borrow money as he wants before the election in November 2024.This is the 103rd debt limit of the United States since the end of World War II.Therefore, the Federal International rating said on June 2 that the "AAA" credit rating of the United States will still be maintained in a negative observation state.Yellen once said that if the Republican Democratic parties cannot reach an agreement, the US finance will breach contract on June 5.The agreement was reached temporarily to avoid breach of contract, because the US government with high debt strokes could continue to bond the day.In other words, the fundamental problem of the debt crisis has not been solved, but it is only postponed. The probability of worsening in the future is more likely.
Of course, the upper limit of Treasury bonds is also a "dotted line". It is a debt -limited issuance system with American characteristics. It is the highest amount of debt settings set by the US Congress for the federal government to fulfill its payment obligations.It is to prevent the government from issuing government bonds at will and the consequences of "incomparable debt".Once the federal government touches this "red line", it means that the US Treasury's borrowing authorization is exhausted and there is no right to issue new debts.The government will close the door because there is no money to spend, breach of contracts that cannot be paid due to expired debt and interest.However, the two parties in the United States are always breaking through the "upper limit", and the upper limit of government bonds has become a tool for the US party struggle.If the United States is a large company, it will have been funded for bankruptcy.However, the US Treasury crisis is not resolved through specific methods such as open source throttling, but it is bargained by Congress.
The U.S. Treasury Department will rely on "to return to the old" to deal with debt issues in the future, and debt expectations are very obvious.By continuously issuing new bonds to enrich the Ministry of Finance's vault, it will gradually consume the decreased liquidity of the United States. A large number of US Treasury bonds will exacerbate the impact of quantitative tightening on stocks and bonds.If the Fed's tightening policy is added, it is expected that liquidity indicators will decrease at a large speed. The upper limit of debt is also "mines" for the US economy.Biden agreed to restrict the federal expenditure of fiscal year and fiscal year in 2024, and large -scale fiscal expenditure reduction may inhibit the economic demand in the United States and exacerbate the risk of decline in the US economy in the second half of the year.
From 1976 to the present, the United States has stopped about 20 or long or short government suspensions due to debt limit.The U.S. government has borrowed a lot since the 1980s. In 1985, the United States has changed from net debt countries to net debt countries. Since then, the scale of debt has continued to rise.At present, the scale of US federal debt is about US $ 3.146 trillion, accounting for more than 120%of the total GDP, which is equivalent to US $ 94,000 per American liabilities.The upper limit of debt is the highest amount of debt set by the US Congress for the federal government to fulfill its payment obligations.According to statistics from relevant US Congress, since 2001, Congress has adjusted more than 20 debt limit.
For a long time, the United States has used the US dollar hegemony to deal with the expansion of debt issues, which has brought potential risks to the global financial markets including Asia and Europe.Countries are worried about the surge in U.S. debt and the US dollar as hegemony. Many countries have already diversified through foreign exchange reserves to reduce their dependence on the US dollar.The U.S. government constantly relax the debt limit, and Yin eats food, leading to the constant institutional defects of debt like snowballs.As of fiscal year in 2022, the total amount of government bonds in the United States has exceeded the total economic volume of China, Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom, and this level has increased by 60 percentage points from the 2008 financial crisis.
The upper limit of debt is postponed to 2025, obviously to not interfere with the layout of the two parties next year.The US debt crisis is essentially the fiscal policy of the two parties that the two parties, and the twisted and superimposed consequences of the two -party rotation system are also a kind of anti -bullishness of the US dollar hegemony to the United States itself.The scale of US debt will reach a historic level in early 2025, and the possibility of systematic problems in the US economy will be even greater.
From the results of this game, although the two parties finally compromised, they just pressed the pause button for the "US debt bomb" pointer.The US media pointed out that the problem of debt is temporarily shelved, but it may threaten the United States and the global economy in 2025 after the next presidential election.The US debt crisis will still be staged frequently in the future, causing serious risks and challenges to the global economy.
Yellen Lai China hopes that China can assist in the issue of US debt. Of course, the results of the talks will be affected by the environment of Sino -US relations.Yellen hopes that China will continue to increase its holdings of U.S. debt. It is expected that while China's internationalization is advancing the internationalization of the RMB, it should not help the dollar's trend.The Chinese government hopes that the US government will reasonably deal with US debt issues and prevent debt defaults, which will also indicate that the internationalization of the RMB is not to replace the US dollar.
The author is a researcher at Anhui Academy of Social Sciences
