Mr. Jin Jianguo, which was published on May 27th in Lianhe Zaobao, could not replace the article of the US dollar that "the dominant position of the US dollar is still solid" and cited the "China's most accurate analyst" Hong Yan's point of view-It surpassed the United States in 2033, but it is expected that the United States will surpass China again by 2050. "In the end, it comes to conclusions:" Dealing in the United States is a very favorable foreign strategy for China, but it is a pity that at least a long time in a long period of timeI can't see this result. The internationalization of the renminbi will never take a step of replacing the US dollar. "
RMB is working hard to achieve internationalization and try to replace the US dollar, which is one of the more representative views of the international academic community.The logic behind this view is that China has identified the US and the US dollar hegemony that began to weaken irreversible. The Chinese government tried to seize the opportunity to take the initiative to take the initiative to promote the replacement of the US dollar to become the world currency.In other words, those who hold this view believe that China challenges the dominant position of the United States and the US dollar on the basis of high confidence in its comprehensive national strength and economic strength.The author believes that such views have seriously misunderstood the cause of the Chinese government to promote the internationalization of the RMB in recent years, especially since the Russia and Ukraine War.
First, the direct purpose of the Chinese government to promote the internationalization of the RMB is to hedge the huge risk of hedging the US dollar to the Chinese economy.Shortly after the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, the United States kicked some Russian banks out of the SWIFT international settlement system.In June 2022, the U.S. Treasury announced that it frozen Russian personal funds and US $ 300 billion in Russian central bank assets.
Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has often used financial hegemony to sanction Iran and North Korea, such as small and medium -sized countries such as Iran and North Korea.Financial sanctions.This not only surprised China, the main strategic competitor of the United States, but also made its allies and partners shudder.
Taiwan has become the forefront of Sino -US strategic competition.Once the Taiwan Strait is happening, China is likely to suffer stricter sanctions than Russia.Although the Sino -Russian economy is not the same as the same day, the degree of foreign dependence of the Chinese economy is much higher than that of Russia, and its economic fragility is far better than Russia.Once China repeats the mistakes of Russia today, in the absence of the RMB internationalization, the Chinese economy will suffer huge losses.China, which knows the importance of economic development, must plan ahead.
Second, weaken the US dollar hegemony.The US dollar and the U.S. military are the two pillars of the United States to maintain hegemony, and the US dollar is the foundation in the foundation.In the first two years of the United States economy, the growth rate of GDP in 2021 was 5.7%in 2021; the actual growth rate in 2022 was 2.1%. Under the influence of inflation, the nominal growth rate of GDP was 9.3%; 2022 2022; 2022Since the beginning of the year, inflation has begun to decline, and the dollar has continued to strengthen.However, the US economy is still facing huge inflation pressure. Since 1950, the United States has experienced seven times to inflation, and has failed to avoid the bitter fruit of recession.
In order to inflation, the US dollar continues to raise interest rates, which has led to the continued intensification of foreign debt crisis in dozens of developing countries such as Sri Lanka; currencies in other countries are also facing the pressure of continuous weakening."Troubles" (John Connery, who once served as the US Treasury Minister).The world's bitter dollars have been long.Broken the US dollar's independence and promoted the multi -polarization of the international monetary system, and gradually became the consensus of the international community.China is the second largest economy, a strong manufacturing industry, the largest trading partner country in more than 100 countries in the world, and huge development potential. These are the favorable conditions of the RMB internationalization.The weakening (instead of overthrowing) the US dollar hegemony and promoting the multi -polarization of the international monetary system are greater than the disadvantages of China and the vast majority of countries.
Third, the internationalization of RMB has other benefits to China.As a world currency, the US dollar enjoys the privilege of levying coinage taxes to all countries around the world.Other international currencies such as the euro, the pound and the yen have also enjoyed this privilege.Driven by Russia's active use of RMB for favorable factors such as cross -border settlement, the degree of internationalization of the RMB has continued to increase, and it will also obtain a certain coinage tax.As more and more countries sign the currency swap agreement with China, the exchange rate risk of relevant Chinese companies in international trade is gradually decreasing.In addition, the improvement of RMB internationalization is also conducive to expanding China's influence in the global financial market.
China has a very rational understanding of the gap between the comprehensive national strength and economic strength between China and the United States.China also has a sober understanding of the conditions that need to meet the internationalization of the RMB and the challenges that may be encountered.China has not blindly promoted the internationalization of the renminbi, nor is it on the foresee that in the foreseeable future, the RMB can replace the US dollar.
The author is an associate professor at the University of Sichuan Foreign Studies
