U.S. Secretary of State Brills, after many twists and turns, finally visited mainland China and high -level dialogue with Beijing, and successfully obtained Xi Jinping.Regardless of whether the result of the real communication is the same, at least in terms of appearance, both parties intend to improve the interaction relationship, and control the tension situation to avoid going towards conflict.However, at the public press conference, Brinken still did not deny that although it was hard to communicate and negotiate, it was still impossible to restore the military communication channels of both sides. What was the real reason for the difficulty of being difficult?
On September 20, 2018, the State Department announced to the outside world that according to the US Congress, the Countering American America's ADVERIEGH SANCTIONS ACT was formulated.In the process of purchasing S-400 to the air-missile system in 2018, Li Shangfu, the then Minister of Equipment Development of the Central Military Commission responsible for the relevant decision-making.
In fact, at that time, the projects listed by the Equipment Development Department of the Central Military Commission and Li Shangfu's own project, including prohibiting the application for export permits and using the US financial system, and included the sanctions on the Specially Designated Nationals andBlocked Persons List is prohibited from the establishment of and maintaining commercial exchanges with the objects of sanctions; basically only the surface articles on the declaration of stance, it is impossible to produce any so -called sanctions or curbing effects.
When Trump passed the bill and asked him to sign the bill to take effect, he did not retain the US Congress abuse of law legislation. Therefore, he also issued a statement at the time of signing. He severely accused the content of the bill extremely serious defects.Many American AIA also believes that sanctions cover a wide range, which may affect corporate companies with sanctions to conduct legitimate trade.
Sanctioning Li Shangfu's Logic is difficult to solve
Heng Qing's theory, the sanctions adopted by the United States are indeed legal.Li Shangfu's behavior of performing various official duties in accordance with his duties is basically nothing to do with his individual. Regardless of whether you buy any armaments, he is not paid by Li Shangfu's personal funds, but is paid by the Chinese national budget.If Li Shangfu's individual or the Central Military Commission's equipment development department is included in the sanctions object, the US government should sanction the entire People's Republic of China, because whether it is individual decision makers or the execution unit of the purchase of the case, they are implementing national policies.The US Congress booking such a bill is really difficult to understand.
U.S. President Biden attended the Summit of the Seventh -King of the Hiroshima in Japan in May this year. When responding to media inquiries, he claimed that he was considering the sanction of Li Shangfu.Although transmitting political signals in this way, it will still make Beijing expect to some extent.However, when Shangri -La dialogue, Washington has no movement, and naturally will make Beijing feel that the United States lacks sincerity. Therefore, he will continue to refuse to meet with the US Minister of Defense Austin during the incense meeting.Essence
Of course, Washington hopes to restore military communication pipelines, so through the release of the phenomenon of the military ships of both sides, it is intended to resort to the international civil opinion to oppress Beijing.However, in terms of the political operation effects of these propaganda warfare, in fact, it has not constituted any public opinion pressure. Therefore, although Beijing is willing to maintain a dialogue in diplomatic communication pipelines, it is believed that the military communication pipeline is not urgent. ThereforeThe topic will naturally return without success.
To be honest, over the past 10 years, the US Congress has continuously limited the scope of communication between the US military and the PLA, and limited the legislation of the US military and the PLA interactive exchanges through many Congress.Judging from the position of the People's Liberation Army, if the PLA is regarded as a false situation of the enemy, and the potential hostility is continuously demonstrated through the legislative content, all military exchange activities deliberately crowd out the PLA participation.Shim to maintain communication channels with the U.S. military?
The relationship between Beijing's military exchange with Washington has reached this point, which is actually a long -term accumulated opposition emotion, freezing three feet in a day.Coupled with the previous exchanges and discussions, it has not been continued under the restrictions of Congress's legislation, and the entire military exchanges have only one empty frame.Such a military diplomatic relations with virtual fame naturally cannot make the PLA unrestrained and adopt a positive attitude to establish and interact with the U.S. military.
Opinions of the US State Council and the National Defense System
From another perspective, the U.S. State Department's bureaucracy has always been in foreign policies, and will often have opinions with official defense system officials and contradictions in policy operations.At present, Beijing deliberately maintains the communication channels with the US State Department's professional diplomatic system. As far as the crisis is controlled to avoid misunderstanding and misjudgments, in fact, it can also smoothly convey the political intent and information that I want to express.
Therefore, the U.S. State Department's diplomatic professional bureaucratic bureaucracy is indeed advantageous compared to the Pentagon's national defense military bureaucracy.This difference is actually quite beneficial for the US State Department.At present, military exchanges between the two sides are relatively limited in operation, and Beijing's interest is not high. The bureaucratic system of the US State Department naturally understands it.On the table, it is still necessary to speak some scenes for the unable to restore the high -level communication of the military system, but it is really doubtful to actively promote the degree of recovery relationship.
In short, the military exchanges and communication relationship between Beijing and Washington do have obstacles, but the relevant emergency pipelines, coupled with the operating mechanism of mutual notification of major training activities, should still run smoothly.Observe the current political atmosphere of the two parties. Those who hope to make military exchanges break the situation far more than hope to restore the original state and restart the dialogue. If you want to return to the military diplomatic honeymoon period of the two sides, it may be difficult and the probability is very low.
The author is a senior researcher at the Taiwan Chinese Strategy Society
