Su Yonglin: ＂Two hands to two hands＂ in the United States and China will not change

Source: Zhongshi Electronic News

Author: Su Yonglin

The trip to Beijing, the US Secretary of State Brosky, painted "Perfect" and drew "Perfect".The reason why it is said to be "perfect" is that the "Following Society" not only achieves the expected goals of the United States, but has been highly affirmed by President Biden, but also means that the interaction between the United States and the middle and the high -level and high -level levels will continue.

However, whether it is Beijing's official statement or the political movement of the United States in the Asia -Pacific region, it still shows a distinctive two -handed strategy.For example, Blingken visited Beijing at the same time, and the US White House Guoan consultant, Sarawan, was visiting Tokyo and had a high -level security dialogue with Japan and the Philippines.For another example, the tone of the talks between Chinese diplomats, Wang Yi, Qin Gang and Brinken talks, can be described as a red face and a white face.Loen the follow -up conversations between the United States and China.

The two -handed strategy of both the United States and China, from the statement of the two parties during the During the middle of Brinken's visit, was also highlighted.According to the press release of the Luofang, Blingken did not say "do not support Taiwan independence" until the last day when he met with Xi Jinping. In the talks with Wang Yi and Qin Gang before the "Following Club", Lu Fang emphasized a more rigid "The principles of the first middle of the middle "instead of the more flexible" one middle school policy "is obviously dissatisfied with the United States and Taiwan's policy.

Unexpectedly, at the press conference in Brinken's end of the visit, the United States changed its style to talk about how the United States and China controlled the differences in the Taiwan Strait."," Playing the fire and self -immolation ", etc., did not take the priority, and it was full of mystery.

Therefore, through observation of this time the two parties' issues in the Taiwan Strait, they can predict that the United States and China will make the preparation of "two hands on both hands": at the most sensitive military level, the United States is expected to cancel its routine.The movement of the warship through the Taiwan Strait, and the mainland must respond to normalized machines and ships around the platform. The "hard -handed" pattern of both sides in the Taiwan Strait may be difficult to change.Otherwise, Brinkens should report the news of the recovery of the US -China Defense Minister's hotline during this visit.Therefore, in view of the difficulty of changing the atmosphere of military confrontation between the Taiwan Strait, American politics, think tanks and media speculation on the "2027 martial arts time point" is expected to be unpredictable.

At the general level of cross -strait economic and trade and exchanges, the future attitude of the United States is likely to continue the chairman of AIT Rosen Berg and the director of the Taipei Office Sun Xiaoya's speech on the 2024 presidential election, that is, to support the recovery conversation between the two sides of the strait, and to the blue, and to the blueThe three -sets of green and white people's cross -strait discussion held a balanced position, and this change is undoubtedly more advantageous to the Kuomintang's Hou Youyi and the People's Party's Ke Wenzhe, which puts pressure on the DPP Lai Qingde.

Similarly, after the Strait Forum, the mainland announced on the 20th that the relief ban in Taiwan ’s Shakya imports was announced on the 20th. In addition to the military in the mainland, the mainland may maintain high pressure and alert, and it is expected to resume cross -strait civil exchanges in the future.Taiwan independence "is a boundary, and is willing to talk to all Taiwanese political parties and civilian groups that support the peace of the banks.

The United States -China in the Taiwan Strait is mainly seeking controlling the positive conflict of military and diplomacy. The consensus reached is to jointly support the recovery of cross -strait restoration. At present, the two parties will extend the "soft one" on the premise of retaining the "hard hand".Expand Cooperation.Beijing focused on whether cross -strait relations can be transferred after the Taiwan election was held in early 2024. Washington focused on the successful re -election of the Democratic President at the end of 2024.

The author is a think tank researcher