Source: Taiwan Industry and Commerce Times
Industrial and Commercial Society
Recently, the Japanese stock market has reached a 33 -year high and the house price index has continued to rise from the bottom of the valley, attracting the attention of Taiwan investors.And the focus of this issue is the focus of the Japanese economy out of the "lost 30 years" and reproduce Rongguang?In the end, this wave of Japanese investment is a big show in the financial and real estate markets, or is it really different in the Japanese economy?
As far as the financial market is concerned, the current Japan is really tempting.For example, in the second half of the year, the US economy may fall into the decline and unblocking. The Chinese economic recovery performance is not as good as expected. Japan, which is ranked third in the world's third largest economy, has a relatively stable prosperity and has been shrinking for many years.Or continuing the day and yen will help tourism consumption, exporting enterprises 'profits and manufacturing backflow; and the price of Japanese stocks is relatively cheap and the dividend yield is good, coupled with the ashore government pushing the capital market reform and the Japanese enterprises' past inertia.Learning to attach importance to the development of shareholders and rights has made investors eager to try.Not to mention that the stock god Buffett has not only bought the five major commerce stocks, including Ito Zhongshaes' stocks from 2020, to make a profit. Recently, it will even make an increase in investment, making the future entry more exciting.
However, is the Japanese economy really going out of "30 years of loss"?From the perspective of relevant data, it is true to get out of the outbreak trough and recovery until before the epidemic.For example, the leading indicators that are positively related to GDP performance have risen slightly (97.6 in April 2023). Although there is still some distance from the benchmark line with good fundamental performance, it is far higher than that of the epidemic situation before the epidemic situation is popular.90.7. On May, the Japanese manufacturing procurement manager index (PMI) was 50.6, which has returned to the Rongku line, and the service industry PMI continues to rise to 56.3.Also regain vitality.It is no wonder that the street prosperity index surveyed by the Japanese Cabinet House, whether it is a family plan (retail, catering), enterprises (manufacturing, agriculture, forestry and aquatic products) or hired related (talent dispatch, career introduction office)The Japanese economy is quite optimistic, making its index higher than the 50 -point boundary of the overall situation, and it continues to rise.
Furthermore, the Japanese house price index has risen from 92 before the epidemic to 115.9 in March this year.And increasing enterprise investment.Recently, the official first -season GDP increased to 2.7 %, which was 1.6 % higher than the initial value.At the same time, although Taiwan has declined sharply this year, exports to Japan have risen for two consecutive months.
As far as Japan has been shrinking for many years, the annual growth rate of consumer price index (CPI) on the one hand rose to 2 % of the Bank of Japan's policy target in April 2022. It also reached 3.5 % in April this year.The annual growth rate also rose to 4.1 %, which is a positive message.Another argument believes that some of the causes of prices in Japan are caused by input inflation, and it is not completely driven by demand, but we believe that the resolution of Japanese shrinkage is mainly due to industrial transformation.
On the impact of the depreciation of the yen and the return of manufacturing, there are currently some arguments that the annual growth rate of the three major export projects, including Japanese motor equipment, machinery and transportation, can be seen.It has little impact on it.Japan ’s exports account for about 18.4 % of the GDP, far less than 60 % of the consumption. Therefore, the depreciation of the yen has increased the profit of several export companies, and it cannot significantly increase the contribution to GDP.Regarding past experience, in 2004, the Japanese government had moved a big movement to the yen. Although it led to a wave of manufacturing backflow, due to the changes in industrial development and international competition advantages, Sharp, Panasonic and other companies faced huge losses.Furthermore, since the end of 2012, the Prime Minister of Abe has ordered the Bank of Japan to launch a quantitative easing policy for many years.
But what we have to emphasize is that at present, the waves of Japanese manufacturing are different from the past. The depreciation of the yen is only one of the help.The global supply chain reorganization is the driving force for the return of the Japanese manufacturing industry in this wave.We have observed that Japan's return companies will focus on high -efficiency industries that are favorable for economic strategies, and jointly develop the semiconductor industry supply chain with the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea.In summary, under the influence of global monetary policy, geopolitics, and crown disease, and the influence of relevant domestic policies, the Japanese economy ushered in an opportunity to use its strength to gradually go out of the low tide of 30 years of loss. FinanceThe market took the lead in smelling and led by team sprints, so it is expected that Japan can effectively carry out industrial transformation and write a new model of re -growth for mature economies.
