Source: Voice of the United States

Author: Siyang

Antony Blinken, Antony Blinken, is scheduled to visit Beijing from 18th to 19th.Senior US officials emphasized on Wednesday (June 14) that the main goal of Brinken's visit to China was to establish a crisis communication mechanism with China to reduce risks, but they also said that they did not expect a big breakthrough in the interview.Analysts believe that Brinken's trip should try to explain the way for the leaders of the two countries during the Asia -Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in November this year, and only when the leaders of the two countries realize the meeting, the US -China relations will really have the opportunity to restart the opportunityEssence

Why do Blins visit China?In order to establish crisis communication, paving the way more than worshiping

This will be the first visit to China as a U.S. Secretary of State, and it is also the first visit to China since 2018.According to the U.S. State Department, Brinken has three goals, that is, discuss the importance of maintaining open communication channels to manage the importance of US -China relations responsibly; proposes to be concerned about bilateral issues, global and regional affairs, and common cross -border challenges.Carry out potential cooperation.

Kurt Campbell, a coordinator of the National Security Council, emphasized at a telephone meeting held for Bronken on Wednesday that it is very important to establish communication channels.

He said: "Fierce competition requires fierce diplomacy. If we want to manage tensions. This is the only way to eliminate misunderstandings, send signals, communicate, and cooperate together when the benefits are consistent."

Campbell also said before that the United States hopes to establish a crisis control mechanism similar to the Cold War with China.He said: "During the Cold War, we managed to effectively create a mechanism to allow crisis communication at accidental conflicts or tensions. I can say fairly that we can not do this with China. China has always been reluctant to accept and and ofes.Participate in establishing such a mechanism. "

Daniel Kritenbrink, Assistant Secretary of State of the State Department of Asia -Pacific Affairs, said at the same telephone meeting that, like the previous talks between US -China officials, Taiwan and Ukraine will be an important issue on the Brostest agenda.In addition, he said that how to strengthen the exchange between the people of the United States and China will be one of the goals of Brinken's visit to China.

Kangda and Campbell also said that they hoped that the meeting would promote more senior US officials to visit China this summer.US Finance Minister Janet L. Yellen, Minister of Commerce Gina Raimondo, and John Kerry, special envoy John Kerry, have all shown their interest in visiting China.

However, analysts believe that Brinton's visit should be to meet the road during the National Leadership Summit of Biden and Xi Jinping in the San Francisco Asia -Pacific Economic Cooperation Organization in November.

The senior researcher of the Foreign Policy Project of the Brucks Society, Ryan Hass, the Chinese Affairs Director of the Obama Government National Security Council, wrote on Twitter on June 14: "Looking forward to wise. I don't expect any breakthroughs, large -time delivery results or big movements. This is not the purpose of this visit. "

He believes that preparation for Biden Xi Jinping is the real purpose of Brinken's visit to China.He continued to write: "I think visit is a series of opening remarks of President Biden and President Xi’ s autumn meeting. This will be a exploration period.explain.

Moritz Rudolf, a lawyer at the Law School of Yale University in the United States, believes that whether Bayeng and Xi Jinping can meet again are vital to the relationship between the two countries, because the real starting point for the restart of the US -China relationsEssence

He said: "In view of the Chinese system, the best way to advance forward is to pave the way for Biden and Xi's meeting, because if they want to cooperate in some places, it is best to reach the senior management now.The system can be implemented, and we can see some specific mechanisms to really work. I think it will only work if Bayeng and Xi Jinping meet. Because that is the real starting point. "

China wants to "dry" the United States?China is also willing to prevent the decline in US -China relations

In the Chinese media, Bronken's visit to China is the result of the United States "seeking China", and China has originally abandoned diplomacy with the United States.China "it is necessary to temporarily dry the Americans."However, the US Assistant Secretary of State Kangda emphasized that Brinkens' visit to China was jointly promoted by both parties.

"In the process of preparing for the visit of Secretary of State Lincoln, we have conducted multiple substantial, effective and frank exchanges with many Chinese counterparts. In these discussions, both parties have expressed their interest in ensuring that we maintain communication.Open channels, do everything possible to reduce the risk of misjudgment. In the words of Chinese peers, it is to prevent the spiral of the relationship between the two countries from falling. "

Campbell, a coordinator of Indo -Pacific Policy, said that China should realize that communication with Washington is still important.

He said: "There may be economic considerations, or they may also see the risks caused by related accidents and negligence. It may also be that they have seen effective contact with allies and partners.Or maybe we may be worried about the technical measures we take, or it may be a combination of multiple reasons. A simple fact is that we believe that both parties are interested in maintaining continuous, clear and open communication channels. We are trying to do it.This point. "

Michael D. Swaine, Director of the East Asian Research Plan of the Washington Think Tank Institute, has recently organized a seminar on the US -China risk management mechanism recently organized by the UNITED States Institute of Peace.At the meeting, Chinese scholars told him in an unofficial "two -track" diplomacy that China also realized that the United States must manage the crisis and keep dialogue.

"At least in the interaction, people who interact with us, many of them can come into contact with the senior management of the Chinese government, they realize that the crisis must be controlled. What should you do during crisis management, what should not do ... the United States and ChinaMore dialogues need to be made to reach a consensus on the red line. Find out the possible misunderstandings. Where, you need to really restrain yourself, not just control the other party. "

Will the government policy change in China?Can't

The efforts of the Bayeng government's recent seeking to communicate with China were considered by some people to indicate that the Biden government's policy on China might have "loosened", especially Jake Sullivan, a national security consultant,European statement does not seek to "de-countling" with China, but after "de-Risking".

Campbell, a coordinator of the United States, emphasized that dialogue with China does not mean that the Bayeng government policy has changed."This is not a strategic change, nor is it a new thing in the US rule of the United States."

In fact, in his speech, he said that after strengthening domestic investment and strengthening the relationship with allies, the United States now "starts fierce diplomacy."Investing in domestic, collaborative relationships with allies, and competition with China are the strategy of China since May 2022.

With the continued competition in the United States and China, China will take action on the issue of "from the Taiwan Strait to Cuba", and the United States will also fight back.

A U.S. officials who are unwilling to be named said on the 10th that the U.S. monitoring activity in Cuba was earlyThe Biden government already existed before taking office, and in 2019, it also upgraded intelligence collection facilities.U.S. Secretary of State Broskel pointed out on June 12 that the diplomatic measures taken by the Bayeng government delayed China's attempt to project military forces worldwide.Campbell also repeated this.

Campbell said, "We will continue to defend the freedom of flight, navigation and action within the scope permitted by international law. We will continue to take more measures in economics, technology, security, and other fields in the future to promote us’s promotionInterest and values. We will not step back from our interests and values or ensure long -lasting competitive advantages. "

On June 12, the Biden government included 43 entities on the export control list because these entities participated in training Chinese military pilots and activities to threaten US national security.Prior to this, the Bayeng government announced on June 9 that the Chinese laser printer manufacturer Nasda Co., Ltd. and its eight subordinate branches were included in the export control list.Human rights in Xinjiang, China.

Where is the problem of not high expectations in the United States?Mutual accusations of the United States and China

When asked what the expectations of the visit to Brinken, Campbell said, "We must be more realistic. We go to Beijing to get some breakthrough or change in the way we get along."

Kang Da, Assistant Secretary of State of the Asia -Pacific Affairs of the United States State Council, said: "I expect this visit will not produce a long string of delivery. We are now a series of key contacts at critical moments. I emphasize it again.It will reduce the risk of misjudgment and will not turn to potential conflicts. "

Rudorf, a researcher at the Law School of Yale University, believes that the biggest problem that the US -China relations cannot achieve a breakthrough is that both parties are accusing each other of the relationship for deterioration.

"If the main concern of one party is that the other party has caused the relationship to deteriorate, it is really difficult to move towards the essence. This is like structural obstacles, which hinders a constructive and meaningful dialogue."

In recent months, the United States and China have accused each other in a series of issues such as global roles, foreign policies, economic trade, Taiwan, and their respective political systems.

For example, in terms of global order, the United States has accused China of challenging the rules -based international order, keeping the world away from universal value, and destroying the law, agreement, principles, and systems that promote the success of the world.The "hegemony logic" does not allow other models to exist. It is the biggest destroyer of the world order and global trading system, which violates the purpose, principles and specifications of the UN Charter; the abuse of financial hegemony and technical influence;Implementing power politics, etc.

On the issue of Taiwan, the United States has accused China of no longer accepting Taiwan's current situation and wants to speed up the return process.And China has accused the United States of constantly retreating from its own commitment, consensus between the two parties, and the original position. The purpose is to "reverse" the history and use the Taiwan issue to obstruct the peaceful unity of China.

For Brinken and Chinese State Councilor and Minister of Foreign Affairs Qin Gang's call on the evening of June 13, the US -China statement is also very different.The U.S. State Department stated in the call announcement with Qin Gang that Brins emphasized the necessity of communication "to avoid misjudgment and conflict" and said that the United States will continue to propose concerns of concerns and potential cooperation with China.In the statement of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Qin Gang blamed the difficulties and challenges encountered in Sino -US relations.

Shi Wen, director of the East Asian Research Plan of the Quinxi Institute, believes that a major issue in the current crisis communication in the United States and China is that they have different understanding of each other's image and their own image.

For example, he said that the Chinese elite and the public position the image of China as ambitious but not aggressive, and become more confident.It is very sensitive to challenging China's status and stable behavior, so it will think that any action in Washington is malicious.

He said: "These views make Beijing very sensitive to Washington's behavior of China, and it is usually considered to be bullied, or in the words of Chinese, hegemony can sometimes be used to intimidate, humiliate or test the Chinese leadership.Sentences, these images and others may exaggerate the tendency to look at the Chinese crisis, and believe that the behavior of the Washington (control) crisis is malicious. "

He said that in the Taiwan issue that is crucial to the United States and China, the United States and China have a tendency to fall into the "commitment trap", which makes it difficult for each other to return.He said that China has a sense of morality that Taiwan is a sovereign territory of China and part of China. It is an unfair behavior to take Taiwan from China; China needs to correct this behavior through firm efforts to achieveThe unity of Taiwan and the mainland.The United States also has a sense of morality, or the reason for ideology to defend Taiwan.

"In the Taiwan crisis, the United States has also expressed strong desire or strong determination, because it tries to defend its credibility on the Taiwan issue, and it wants to solve this problem peacefully.The way to try to prevent the Chinese and defend the peace solutions. Therefore, the expression of determination is also an important thing. "

Rudorf of Yale University believes that the accusations between the two sides reflect the huge "trust deficit" between the United States and China.These dislikes originated from different political systems, different values, and domestic political forces, which are difficult to overcome.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping said in March, "Western countries led by the United States have implemented a comprehensive curb, enclosure, and targeting to me, which brings unprecedented challenges to Singapore's development."China is taking action urgently to prepare for potential conflicts.Since the end of last month, Xi Jinping emphasized twice to prepare for the "extreme" situation.