"The soldiers, the great affairs of the country, the place of death, the way of survival, must not be inspected."Regarding the evolution of the Russian and Ukraine War, the author evaluated Russia in the "middle zone" on March 22: "Objectively speaking, the Russian and Ukraine conflicts are complicated.(Obviously fighter aircraft) As a rear hand, Russia still has certain reserve military power and nuclear force. "During the Summit of the Seventh-way Group on May 19, the Bayeng government announced that the United States and allies planned to provide F-16 fighters to Ukraine.A war that recently exposed in the Donbass region of the Donbass region may lead to the entire ride report in 2023. It is also believed that the war is evolving into a protracted conflict, and it is likely to last until 2023.
What about the future direction of the Russian and Ukraine war?The author combed complicated information and made a slight analysis.
First of all, from a military perspective.If the bloody local battlefield meat grinding machine is jumped out of Bachurut, from a macro -faced observation, the offensive and defensive is easy, but Ukraine's big counterattack has not officially started.The New York Times reported in April that a recently leaked U.S. military document includes the training and equipment delivery status of Ukraine recruits in January to April this year, showing that Ukraine is setting up a combat unit of 12 brigades, of which nine brigades are from the United States and other northern North.Member states of the Atlantic Convention provided training and supplies.
Among these nine brigades, the six brigades are planned to be in place before March 31, and the remaining three brigades are planned to complete the combat reserve before April 30.To put it simply, these nine western equipment brigades are the core power of Ukraine's counterattack this round of counterattack. Before they use it, the counterattack does not start.The dazzling drone attacked the Kremlin, and the Ukraine Destruction team sneaked into Russia Belgo Rhodes.
Why did Ukraine counterattack not officially started yet?In terms of strategy, Ukraine waited for the opportunity, and was still looking for the gap between the Russian defense line, and some of the equipment was not completely in place.For example, the Pentagon has confirmed that the 31 U.S. M1 main battle tanks can only reach Ukraine this fall this fall.
Secondly, at the political level.The US 2024 Presidential Election will profoundly affect the direction of the Russian and Ukraine war, especially the step -by -step former President Trump, becoming a great huge variable.On May 13th, President Zelezky in Ukraine responded to Trump during his visit to Italy.He claimed that "Trump did not solve this problem."Former US Secretary of State Hillary recently warned that if Trump was re -elected president in 2024, it would mean "the end of American democracy and Ukraine."
If Hillary and Trump have a little personal grievances, Zeelianzki's remarks are actually an unusual standing team on the 2024 election in the United States.Behind this is Trump's aggressive poll support.The CBS polls released on May 1st, among the candidates for the Republican primaries, Trump is far ahead with a 58%vote rate, and 22%of the Governor of Florida De Santis follows.Another poll conducted by the Washington Post and the Broadcasting Corporation from April 26th to May 3rd showed that despite a series of lawsuits and investigations, Trump's support rate still led Biden for seven percentage points.
On May 24, De Santis has officially announced the election.It must be pointed out that he said in March: "Although there are many important national interests in the United States -protecting our border, solving our internal combat reserve crisis, achieving energy security and independence, and curbing China, but further involved in itRussia and Ukraine's conflict is not one of them. "The saying even caused Trump's plagiarism allegations that it was" just following his footsteps. "Switching back to Zeelianzki, naturally he would not hope that any of the two Republicans came to power in 2024.His statement in Italy actually reflects some kind of anxiety about Trump (or De Santis).
"War is the continuation of politics."On May 18, the Financial Times quoted several US and European officials as saying that as the United States was about to enter the election cycle, Ukraine only showed some "progress" to the United States and other Western supporters to explainWestern large -scale aid is not wasted.In other words, this round of counterattacks in Ukraine should occur within the next five months, and the first formal debate by the United States Republican presidential primaries is scheduled to be held in Milwauki in August.
Assume that the war broke out in August, the Russian side suppressed the nine nine Western equipment brigades to a certain extent on the battlefield, seized the opportunity, and used Trump (or De Santis) at the primaries of the Republican Presidential primary electionAny victory in China, using the "potential" to force the Wufang to the negotiating table, to achieve a political compromise that both sides are unwilling to be willing, but can barely accept it, or a very good way of war.
The author is a senior media person in Nanjing
