Go to the US dollar and the dependence of foreign governments to get rid of the dependence on the US dollar is an old topic for decades, but it has never shaken the status of the US dollar as the world currency.Since the 1960s, foreign capital and some countries have dissatisfied with the dominant role of the US dollar.Former French President Dai Goghle's anti -American emotions were strong. He opposed the US dollar hegemony and had threatened to use warships to transport US dollars to the United States for gold.Like Da Goghler, a country that threatens to go to the US dollar today is just a political appeal and lacks realistic economic support.Mark Twain has a famous saying: "My death report has been severely exaggerated." Reports on the replacement of the US dollar were also seriously exaggerated.

The dominant position of the dollar is still stable

The dollar is still the "trading medium" that dominates the world, that is, the means of buying and selling goods.For example, in March of this year, the Global Financial Telecommunications Association (SWIFT) reported that the US dollar is the most commonly used currency in the global payment system, accounting for 41.7%of the total payment, followed by the euro.In contrast, although China has a relatively large proportion in global trade, the utilization rate of RMB in SWIFT payment is 2.4%.

The dollar is still the main "accounting unit" in the world, which means that it is a standard method for trading partners to measure the value of goods and service market value.According to the Federal Reserve, from 1999 to 2019, the US dollar accounted for 96%of the trade invoices in the Americas, 74%in the Asia -Pacific region, and 79%in other parts of the world.The only exception is in Europe. Given the frequent trade between EU partners, the euro is the main valuation currency.

The dollar is widely regarded as a reliable "preservation method" or a shelter.To a large extent, due to the stability of other currencies, the US dollar accounts for nearly 60%of foreign exchange reserves (that is, the currency held by the central bank to help manage the country's currency system and exchange rate).Although the share of the US dollar in the central bank's reserves has declined over time, it still makes the share of all competitors dwarfed.In addition, according to the data of the Brucks Society, more than 65 countries are linked to the US dollar.

At present, a currency that can be replaced in the world cannot be found.The euro is the world's second largest reserve currency, accounting for 21%of foreign exchange reserves, while the US dollar accounts for nearly 60%of foreign exchange reserves.The key factor that hinders the widespread use of the euro is: According to the data from the National Economic Research Agency, international investors and central banks can be used as high -quality euro pricing assets for value -preserving methods, and there is no "safe" government support assets in the entire euro zone.EssenceThe EU is not a unified national entity and lacks a solid foundation to support the euro.

The replacement of the US dollar is a dream of China's pursuit of "east -rising and west". China has vigorously promoted the US dollar to the US dollar, the willingness to go to the US dollar and reduce the use of the US dollar settlement, and depicts an irreversible historical trend.China and Russia are the most active promoters of the global US dollar.As early as the Russian and Ukraine War, China and Russia had been pushing to the US dollar.Russia's invasion of Ukraine was sanctioned by Western countries, and naturally hated the dominance of the US dollar.

China has seen the serious consequences of Russia being excluded from Swift. They are unwilling to see that China's military force unified Taiwan, and it will also face more serious consequences eliminated by SWIFT.China's economic openness is far more than Russia, and China's foreign economy dependence surpasses Russia; SWIFT has naturally become a bloodline for China and external economic ties.Dealing in the United States is a very favorable foreign strategy for China, but unfortunately, this result cannot be seen in at least a long time.RMB internationalization will never take a step of replacing the dollar.Why?

RMB cannot become the world currency

First, from the historical process of the US dollar to become the world's leading currency, if China's comprehensive national strength will not exceed the United States, there is no possibility of renminbi replace the US dollar.After the war, the Bretton system established the Golden Exchange This system. Under the system, the US dollar represents gold as the world's currency.The Bretton system collapses, gold is no longer linked to the US dollar, and the fixed exchange rate is canceled, but the US dollar continues to exist as the world currency.Such a path depends on the comprehensive strength of the United States.The national strength of the United States is still unparalleled, and the United States has continued to innovate, bringing the United States to a new peak step by step.The currency issued by such national strength represents a national credit.

The RMB replaces the US dollar. First of all, China ’s comprehensive national strength exceeds the United States. China’ s national credit replaces US national credit. Most countries in the world are willing to recognize China's national credit.According to China's current economic situation, it is difficult to surpass the size of the GDP (GDP). When it competes with the United States per capita GDP, it is far away.As for China's credit -based national credit, it is difficult to be accepted by most countries for a long time.

The estimated results released by the Japan Economic Research Center on December 15, 2021 show that China GDP will surpass the United States in 2033, but it is expected that the United States will surpass China again by 2050.In May 2023, Hong Yan, a Chinese economist, said that the speed of China's economic falling beyond most people imagined that China's economic growth rate in the next 10 years can reach an average of about 2%per year, which is already optimistic.Hong Yan has another well -known title: China's most accurate analyst.

Second, China's financial system does not support RMB to replace the US dollar.The number of RMB issuance is amazing. In October 2022, the M2 of the broad currency supply in China reached 26.199 trillion yuan (about S $ 5 million).M2 is close to the United States twice.China's GDP scale is 12.0 trillion yuan, and the debt is over 36.0 trillion yuan.Once the RMB of RMB is floating freely, the RMB exchange rate will inevitably decline.How can we act as a world currency?

China's capital account is not liberalized, and the RMB can be freely exchanged at the frequent accounts, but it has not achieved the free exchange of RMB under the capital account.As the Chinese government has strengthened economic control, capital accounts are hopeless.From the perspective of economic development, in the context of the bleak economic growth prospects, it is no hopeless to realize the liberalization of capital accounts.If you control the capital account, the renminbi cannot be freely exchanged. How to act as the world currency?

Imagine that if the renminbi becomes a currency that is completely free and free of exchange, which group will be anxious to exchange RMB?A few hundred million yuan cash was found in the corrupt official's house.The proportion of corrupt officials that have not been found is small, which is large, and the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection of the Mainland Government is well known.The number of people with tens of millions or millions of yuan must increase.What is the deposit in the bank?The number of bank deposits generally exceeds cash.The RMB has become a freedom to exchanges currency, and holders who are unknown for RMB can instantly exchanged more than 30 trillion US dollars to reserve a fine light.

There are multiple currencies in the world that can be freely exchanged, but these currencies are not likely to replace the US dollar.Even if the RMB is freely exchanged, can governments and people of all countries accept it?RMB has become the only way for the world currency to establish a "community of human destiny". In this community, the currency is RMB.The question is when the "Community of Human Destiny" can be established?

BRICS currency is not good

As for the BRICS countries designed a currency that can replace the dollar, it is completely dreaming, and even no dreams exist.India and China are deadly opponents. The rise of India is no longer blocked. Can India share currency issuance rights with China?Sino -Russian relations are exactly the mutual use of anti -American needs. Can the Russian nation look down on the Chinese. Can Putin's ambitions sharing power involving the scope of sovereignty with China?

Brazil's economic strength is not worthy of talking about the replacement of the US dollar; South Africa's economic performance has always been erased with the illusion of the BRICS countries. Only China's economic strength can talk about the issue of replacing the US dollar status.But just talk about it and cannot be achieved.What needs to talk about between China and India is boundary issues, and it is definitely not going to the US dollar.India will never abandon the United States and stand with China.

(the author is a commentator in Shanghai, China)