Source: Industrial and Commercial Times Society

Former US Secretary of State Henry Alfred Kissinger, May 27, 1923) is about to be promoted to a centenarians. As a supporter of realistic politics, his international political outlook, especially in the United States and ChinaThe establishment of diplomatic relations affects the global geopolitical pattern of the past.In Russia and Ukraine for more than a year, and there are no signs of war, and the United States has actively attracting allies to "Anti -China" (the G7 summit held in Hiroshima a few days ago is an example).Kissinger, who has "war and peace", his alert and insights are worthy of the attention of the world.

History as a mirror, you can know the replacement.Kissinger's doctoral dissertation in 1954 a world-responding world-Metne (Austrian Prime Minister-Empire Foreign Minister), Casari (British Foreign Minister) and peace issues from 1812-1822, discussed from 1812 to 1822During the period, how to rebuild a new international order after the rise of Napoleon and the European war.Kissinger was a push behind the construction of the United States and China in 1979. After World War II, under the Cold War in the United States and the Soviet Union, they realized the actual needs and actively promoted the shuttle diplomacy, which promoted the U.S. -China construction diplomatic relations to check and balance the Soviet Union. Finally, in 1991, 1991The disintegration of the Soviet Union ended the year.

The development since the 1990s, the Western world led by the United States, has expanded through the EU and NATO (NATO); and Russia's rugged development has gone through the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Convention Organization has disappeared.One of the keys related to European peace is that the former Soviet Union's Central and Eastern European countries were divided into five times and successively joined the European Union and/or NATO. In 2023, the latest joining NATO is that there are more than 1,300 kilometers with Russia. From the last century, it was the last century.Finnish.After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia was cracked. During the expansion of NATO, Russian President Putin wanted to join the European Union 20 years ago, but did not get a positive response.

Kissinger gradually moved eastward to a warning area that Russia had no defense in Russia.The reason is that 600,000 square kilometers of Ukraine is larger than the territorial area of any EU country. The capital Kiev and Moscow are close at hand. Once the missiles are launched, there is no time to respond. Russia makes a strong response, but it is only a matter of time.

NATO and EU countries headed by the United States, on the one hand, can not force Russia, which spans Eurasia and faces the West.Within the three small countries of the Baltic Sea, there are Russian ethnic groups that are mother tongue and believe in East Orthodox.From 2010 to 2011, the Jasmine Revolution in North Africa and Arab countries, as well as the color revolution of the Central and Eastern European countries, especially Ukraine experienced the "Orange Revolution", and the President of the President of the European President actively strived to join NATO.Later development was that Putin's "abandonment" became the hopes for EU countries. For NATO, which may be under the city and headed by the United States in the future, the ultimate means is the two "special military operations", that is, in 2014, the soldiers of the soldiers Crimey in 2014The Asia Peninsula and the departure of Ukraine in 2022.

The Russian and Ukraine War highlighted several thoughts that are worth thinking about: Is it possible for Europe to be a "Europe without Russia" in the long -term future?Is it possible for the European ethnic groups to "have no Slavic nation, or even the existence of the Eagol nation"?Although Turkey in Islamic countries is not a member of the European Union, it can join NATO in the broader Christian civilization world. Why can't Russia, which also believe in the East Orthodox in the Greek and some Central and Eastern European nations, cannot be accepted by European countries?

How to "use diplomacy to avoid war and maintain peace together" on the European continent, learn from historical lessons, to avoid the group confrontation that occurs in the same vertical and vertical, and even go to a large -scale battle between different military alliances.Essence

The split Soviet Union ushered in Europe, which has gradually been integrated in political and economic integration. It was unexpected and a portrayal of the past 30 years.Russia's GDP is not half of Germany today. Under the premise of national strength and power balance, interactive pressure and interactive leverage in the scope of each other's forces lies in the economic development situation of the EU / NATO and Russia now and the future.The comparison of the overall national strength.In the past, the criticism of Kissinger was "secret diplomacy swimming in the Quartet" and "the peace of appeasement, not peace", and now criticized the "diplomatic avoidance war" to ignore the evil of the war, as well as the dispute between democracy and authoritarianism."It's a big deal."

For Kissinger, in the realistic political world, "fighting and fighting" and "appeasement" are not the problem of two choices, black and white clear; realistic interests are preferred, self -interest international political views, self -interest, and self -interest.There are no right or wrong, and some are just permanent national interests.Adhering to such faith, when he mentioned the situation of the Taiwan Strait several times this year, he warned that the issue of Taiwan has led the world to be in a very dangerous period.The 100 -year -old politician's excitement, I hope that the leaders of the United States and Lutai can hear it.