We are completely likely to transform the crisis into an opportunity for reform.

Text / Wu Xiaobo (WeChat public account: Wu Xiaobo Channel) < / p>

This column is the result of the research and discussion of Liu Deke, who has long studied real estate policies for a long time, and sent out today to teach all parties.

Our point of view is: boosting the very sluggish domestic demand today, it is urgent to find a large investment and consumer pool. This matter should not be too late. Looking around the world industry and living a child and live the overall situation, I am afraid it is the real estate.Therefore, only the property market can save domestic demand.

As the "Tianzi No. 1" industry, the giant industry chain of real estate is hanging with residents' consumption and wealth, local governments, banks, and dozens of related industries, and involves hundreds of millions of employment population. The sluggishness of the property market is one of the structural factors for downturn in domestic demand.

In 2022, the real estate industry has experienced a fierce fall, the total sales have fallen from 18 trillion to 13.3 trillion, and land transfer revenue has dropped from 8.7 trillion to 6.7 trillion.In November, the decision -making layer issued a "three arrows for the market", which has been slightly boosted in the short term, but due to various reasons, it still failed to overcome the trend.In April of this year, the situation of the real estate has shifted sharply. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the sales area of new residential residentials nationwide was only 52%in March and the sales amount fell by 39%.What is even more worrying is that there have been scenes such as early repayment of loans and large listings of second -hand housing.

The emergence of

These phenomena indicate that the market confidence has been in the trough that has not been seen before. Looking at the history of real estate development since 1998, this crisis not only shows the lack of confidence in buyers, but also reflects the entire private private privately.The edge of housing companies on the verge of collapse is the first time in history.

Therefore, under the principle of adhering to the principle of "housing and not frying", we put forward five proposals for rescue rescue:

Suggestion 1: Make specific legal arrangements and explicits on the issue of real estate tax and property rights as soon as possible.

The "Pilot Real Estate Tax" proposed in October 2021 is an iconic incident of the property market crisis. In March last year, the relevant departments have announced the suspension of the pilot.However, the market still has huge and uncertain psychological expectations for related policies.

Therefore, we need to adhere to the principles of "taxation from legal, legislation first", and make clear legal arrangements for the relationship between real estate tax and property rights for automatic renewal as soon as possible.Misunderstanding and reduce the willingness to buy a house.

Suggestion 2: Reduce the mortgage interest rate of improving housing.

In the past, the experience of ups and downs in the past market shows that the recovery of the Chinese property market depends on the recovery of the improvement of housing and first and second -tier core cities."Meeting the demand for high -quality housing in residents" is the central government's repeated clear policy declaration.

The current situation is that there is a large gap between the first house and the mortgage interest rate of improved housing.

We recommend that in today's very important period, the banking system can reduce the mortgage interest rate of improving housing, making it the same or closer to the first house.According to our contact with some banks, they agree with the value and security of high -quality real estate, and most of them support the implementation of this policy.

Suggestion 3: Reduce the interest rate of stock mortgages.

At present, the first interest rate of the new house of commercial banks is 3.7%-3.9%, while the average interest rate of previous mortgages is about 5.8%.It is recommended that the banking system overcome difficulties and has a difficult time to achieve a balance between the two.

The decline in

The decline in stock mortgage interest rates will greatly encourage confidence and release greater consumer potential energy.In 2008, in order to prevent the economy from decline, the domestic banking industry has made a discount of 85 % off all mortgage interest rates, which has played a good stable market effect.If there is a precedent, it should be imitated.

Suggestion 4: Fully cancel the price limit policy.

"Limit, purchase restriction, price limit" is a regulatory method that has been adhered to in the past for a period of time.To this day, many cities have changed from "both recognition of houses and loan" to "only recognize the house and do not recognize the loan", and the curve has adjusted the loan restriction policy.In terms of purchase restrictions, many cities have also been relaxed by local or all.

The most lethal in the "three -limit policy" is the price limit, and it should be fully released.Some people are worried that the cancellation of price limit may lead to soaring housing prices. This concern seems to be redundant today.

According to our field survey, houses in most cities in China have not been sold at the government's delineated price limit line, and the price limit has lost practical significance.In the first -tier and new tier cities, there are still huge one -handed house prices.It can be seen from the Shanghai Yunjin Oriental buying case not long ago that the relevant price limit policy has shown a ridiculous side.

The cancellation of

Limited price, and it will also change the current high turnover model of Chinese real estate development companies, allowing the entire industry to restore the orbit of normal operations.

Suggestion 5: Carefully implement the "three arrows" and policy -keeping policy.

The "three arrows" at the end of last year, from the three aspects of loans, bonds and equity, gave private housing companies a positive policy arrangement.However, in the actual implementation process, local commercial banks have not given private housing companies to enjoy the same treatment as state -owned housing enterprises through their own interests and security considerations.

In terms of insurance, many local governments have no enthusiasm for implementation, and their strength is still in place.In our opinion, the implementation of the policy of preservation and diplomatic relations is not only to protect the interests of existing home buyers, but also a necessary means for maintaining social stability, but also an important part of rebuilding market confidence.

In some people's eyes, it is "taking old medicines" by boosting the property market to stimulate domestic demand.However, we believe that in the moment when domestic demand is sluggish and lack of confidence, it is difficult to find a trillion -dollar market pool in the short term.

From a positive perspective, we are completely likely to turn crisis into an opportunity for reform, "taking old medicines, taking new roads", and truly promoting the strategic transformation of China's real estate market.

-In the policy orientation, truly realize the "commercial housing belongs to the market, guarantee housing to return to the government", and build a healthy and sustainable real estate market.

—— In terms of industrial innovation, vigorously promote the construction of affordable rental housing, from "residential houses" to "living and living", and explore a new Chinese -style housing model.

In the past few months, major committees have been actively rescued the market and launched many powerful favorable policies.The "three red lines" of housing companies have tried to change the centralized supply policy.Our five suggestions hopes to go further in specific details and completely recover the market and confidence.

Author | Wu Xiaobo | Dangdang Edit | Tang Poetry

Editor -in -law | He Mengfei | Picture Source | VCG