Yin Xiyue's government has come to power for one year. During this period, Japan and South Korea relations are developing rapidly in the direction of normalization.Japan and South Korea have peaked with the 1998 Japanese and Korean partnership declarations, and have been deteriorating.In particular, during the period of the government of Abe and the Moon Jae -in government, the opposition between historical issues and the distance between the two major factors around the North Korean policy became intertwined, and the relationship became very nervous.
In the South Korean presidential election in March 2022, conservative candidate Yin Xiyue was elected with a weak advantage of 0.73%, realizing the change of regime from progressive school to conservatives.The Yin government tried the policy change that "besides Wen Zaiyin's actions" in diplomacy.
First, the policy on the North Korean policy is the contrary to the Wen Zaiyin government who attaches great importance to appeasement.Secondly, through the "Korean version of the Indian Pacific Strategy", the Wen Zaiyin government adheres to the so -called "strategic fuzzy" that does not choose the border stations in China and the United States, and attaches importance to the alliance with the United States.Third, a high degree of trust in the expansion of nuclear deterrence in the United States.In the context of the dominant domestically supporting independent nuclear armed opinion, it has successfully obtained the efforts of improving the promise of expanding nuclear deterrence from the United States, and the United States' "concession" is given through the Washington Declaration.
Yin Xiyue's government made a judgment: In order to promote the above -mentioned "new diplomacy", the security cooperation of Japan, the United States and South Korea is very important. It is necessary to improve the tension between Japan and South Korea as soon as possible.The government's consortium is borne and replaces replacement.However, it is difficult to say that this solution has been fully supported in South Korea, and the support rate is only 30 %.Nevertheless, President Yin took a compromise in March to visit Japan, received the consent of the Kishida government, and accepted the Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Kishita to visit South Korea in May.
Kishida has always stated in March that "inherit the fuzzy statement of historical understanding of the cabinet on history as a whole."However, he revealed his personal mood at the reporter's enrollment in May: "I am very distressed about many people in a harsh environment in a harsh environment." In this regard, there are still most people in South Korea.It is believed that there is no full expression of "reflection and apology", but some people actively evaluate "take a step forward."
In order to improve the relationship between South Korea and Japan, the determination of Yin Xiyue's government does not seem to shake, but in addition to Japan and South Korea, there are disputes such as the discharge of water discharge of Fukushima nuclear power plants.Therefore, it is not guaranteed that South Korean society will obey the Yin Xiyue government.Because from the perspective of Korean society, President Yin's view of the Japanese view and history is "pro -Japanese."
In Japan, there is a sense of peace of mind that "solving historical problems", and at the same time, there is also "whether the regime alternates, will it be overturned again".In view of the status quo of Korean public opinion and the proposal in the wild party, this possibility cannot be ruled out.If this is the case, it is important to use the good opportunity of Yin Xiyue's government to avoid relying on the Japanese and Korean relations of President Yin, but to build a stronger Japanese and Korean relations.
First, we need to realize that Japan and South Korea will continue to be accompanied by historical problems.I think that in the next joint declaration, Japan will inevitably confirm the "reflection and apology" of the past aggression and rule.
Secondly, actively use Japan and South Korea's active cooperation in diplomacy to establish a good relationship, which is beneficial to both Japan and South Korea. The governments and society of the two countries must remember this.Although it is necessary to attach importance to the strategy of suppressing policies and the "Pacific Ocean" of North Korea, this is not enough.One day, South Korea still wants to introduce the appeasement policy, pull North Korea into the framework of peace coexistence, and the support of Japan.In addition, if the confrontation between the United States and China is not good for Japan and South Korea, if the confrontation between the United States and China has not retreated.To avoid this, Japan and South Korea may need to join forces to promote the recovery relationship between the two major countries in the United States and China.
Japan and South Korea must not only deal with the same international environment, but also face the same problem in the face of the most aging aging in the world.In this sense, each other is also the same.In addition, Japan and South Korea's response is limited, and wisdom needs to be brought out.Isn't the relationship between "difficulty and sharing wisdom", isn't it the direction of Japan and South Korea's development?Accepting such a relationship should be the first step in the normalization of Japan and South Korea, and continue to move forward on this basis.
(the author is a professor at the University of Tokyo)
