Source: Global Times
Author: Huo Jianguo
In recent years, global trade protectionism has continued to rise, and unilateralist sanctions in the United States have prevailed. Under the serious impact of the Sino -US game and epidemic, China's foreign trade scale has not risen, and the trade surplus has expanded sharply.In 2022, China's trade surplus reached 877.6 billion US dollars (S $ 1180.8 billion). It continued to maintain a high growth in the first four months of this year. Last year's trade surplus was higher than the total amount of trade with China and the European Union, an increase of 2.8 times over 2012, an increase of 2.8 times over 2012.EssenceMany countries now have a criticism of China's trade surplus. This phenomenon has even become a mystery that is difficult to explain in the economics community. In fact, it is objective to objectively analyze the following reasons.
First, China has sufficient manufacturing potential, has strong international competitiveness in industrial products, has a complete class category in China's industrial system, and complete manufacturing capabilities.This powerful industrial system and manufacturing capabilities can meet the needs of any order and the production of shortage materials in a short time.During the epidemic period, due to the impact and destruction of most countries, not only the shortage of epidemic prevention products, but even the necessity of life.After three months of the epidemic, China issued a mobilization order for resumption of work and re -production. The supply of various types of materials is sufficient, which not only meets the supply of the domestic market, but also meets the demand for orders, masks, testers and ventilation machines in the international market.A lot of exports are the best proof.These new production capacity have greatly led to the export of Chinese labor -intensive products and necessities, and also promoted the formation of a new trade surplus.
The second is that China's trading entities are mainly private enterprises, and their exports account for more than 60%.Although private enterprises are generally dominated by small and medium -sized enterprises, their ability to take orders and product adjustments are very strong, and they have strong corporate development toughness.In recent years, their production and management level has continued to improve and improve. In addition, under the situation of downlink pressure on the domestic economy, they tried to expand overseas markets to seek sales and do everything possible to expand exports.Especially in recent years, many of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic products and lithium batteries that have maintained high exports have been operated by private enterprises. They have made contributions to the accumulation of export surplus.
Third, the appreciation of the US dollar and the relative depreciation of the RMB are conducive to China's expansion.Since March last year, the Fed's radical interest rate hike policy has led to the sharp appreciation of the US dollar exchange rate and the relative depreciation of the RMB exchange rate.Although the exchange rate fluctuations have increased the risk of foreign exchange settlement, in a sense, the depreciation of exchange rate depreciation is conducive to China's expansion of exports.Expansion.
Fourth, Western countries led by the United States have continuously increased the restrictions on China's semiconductor and high -tech products, and interfered with China's import rhythm.Since Biden's ruling, it has continuously upgraded its restrictions on China, and has introduced a series of trade protective bills such as chips and technology bill anti -inflation bills.These bills and policies have a great destructive impact on trade and investment, causing the delay of imports of some high -tech products in China, affecting the expansion of China's imports.Importation stagnation, export expansion, objectively pushing up China's trade surplus.
From the above analysis, it can be concluded that the high surplus of China's trade is objective.China has never deliberately pursued a trade surplus, but its excessive trade surplus is indeed not conducive to the balanced and healthy development of trade.
Theoretically, it is necessary to maintain an appropriate trade surplus, but the excessive trade surplus is passive, and it will even bring unnecessary economic negative effects.In particular, China is currently tense with major trade partnerships. High surplus is easy to become the focus of contradictions, forming new trade frictions, and may restrict the stable growth of China's exports.
Under the current situation, active expansion of imports, and gradually achieving trade balance development should be the direction of policy adjustment.Efforts to expand imports can not only effectively support domestic economic construction, but also use the expansion of imports as a policy tool for alleviating diplomatic relations with some countries.Strengthening import guidance policies can start from the following aspects.
First of all, we should actively consider the average import tariff level again.The average tariff rate level in China has been adjusted to 7.4%after many adjustments, but if considering the arrangement of zero tariffs signed by China, the actual tariff level in China has been greatly lower than the nominal tariffs, but butObjectively speaking, there is still room for further reduction of nominal tariffs.In the case of excessive trade surplus and insufficient domestic investment and consumption, bold and autonomous reduction of import tariffs will definitely play a positive role in promoting investment consumption, and at the same time, it also highlights our determination and courage to expand the opening of the market.
Secondly, we should encourage and support the import of advanced manufacturing equipment, especially energy conservation and environmental protection equipment.China is facing the difficult goal of achieving carbon peaks and carbon neutralization. A large number of use and renewal energy -saving equipment are an important part of work.From now on, we should strive to expand the import of advanced technology equipment, strive to achieve the transformation and upgrading of industrial enterprises, promote the high -quality development of the real economy, and further improve the international competitiveness of China's export products.
Finally, the import restrictions on the import of high -end consumer goods should be appropriately relaxed, the tariffs and consumption taxes should be greatly reduced, the growth of imports is promoted, and the consumer demand of middle -high -end income families can be met.market.It is believed that domestic manufacturers will never observe their changes. The spillover effect will be reflected in the upgrading of domestic products, achieving effective interaction on demand side and supply side.Essence
In short, taking multiple measures to appropriately reduce the trade surplus is a positive option for the current macro policy adjustment. It can actively stimulate investment and consumption internally. It can alleviate contradictions and pressures to the outside world.Incorporate it into the important part of the target of a stable scale and excellent structural policy.
