Source: Hong Kong 01

Author: Ye Dehao

NATO eastward expansion, I believe that in the eyes of many readers, it is similar to the act of surrounding China in the Indo -Pacific region in the eyes of many readers.At present, China has clearly invested in the process of promoting and Russia, as the "Global South" representatives such as Brazil and the African Union.In addition to territorial disputes, Ukraine's future relationship with NATO must be one of the conditions of peace.Facing the situation of being surrounded by the United States as Russia, in love, China will never support Ukraine to join NATO.But is the same reason for it?

Former US Secretary of State and International Political Strategy, Kissinger, explained the reasons for its changes to the NATO's eastward expansion in the interview published by the economist on May 17.Kissinger believes that although Ukraine's joining NATO may eventually lead to this war that can be avoided today, Ukraine's joining NATO after the war is a method of preserving European persistence and peace.

He pointed out that Russia is no longer a "traditional threat" to Europe, and as Finland and Sweden have joined NATO, people can no longer stop them from joining NATO because of the geographical location of Ukraine.At the same time, because Russia and Ukraine must surrender some land in different ways in different ways, the people of the two countries will be dissatisfied with the result of the war. It is necessary to prevent a Ukraine that was armed in the West.Only by allowing Ukraine to join NATO so that they do not have to armed self -protection, but to provide umbrellas from NATO, and restrict Ukraine's independent military decision -making capabilities with NATO's framework.

This consideration of Kissinger is a motivation to ensure European peace.Should China consider its suggestions?

For China's intervention and Russia, Kissinger praised this as a step full of "wisdom" in Zelei Sky. It was excluded from China and Russia, which was not rendered by the West and eliminated China.He believes that under the intervention of China, Ukraine should re -consider whether its future counterattack should "punish Russia", or it is limited to China.Moreover, although he believes that Ukraine should join NATO after the war, China's "constructive role" may not be compatible with NATO."((Ukrainian) cannot expect that China will become NATO ally, but China can support a powerful and independent Ukraine as the end."

But between words, Kissinger also made up the phrase "(Chinese) may acquire Ukraine to join NATO."

Although China has always firmly opposed NATO's eastward expansion, China may not have no reason to support Ukraine to join NATO.

First of all, in addition to moral issues, the reason to oppose NATO East Expansion is undoubtedly due to the concerns of touching the Russian national security bottom line.But as Kissinger hinted that Russia's performance in the Ukrainian battlefield has proved that it does not have enough hard power to worry about it.

At the same time, although Finland and Sweden have joined NATO's threat to Russia's national security differently from Ukraine to NATO, the two countries have joined the Baltic Sea almost into NATO in the NATO and the surrounds of Saint Petersburg.Severe degree is low.NATO's eastward expansion has been cooked.

And, as Kissinger said, after experiencing the Russian -Ukraine War, Ukraine's anti -Russian mood deeply, letting Ukraine has independent military capabilities, but will cause greater potential threats to Russia.Is it better to let Ukraine join NATO?

Of course, preventing Ukraine from joining NATO is one of the core reasons for Putin's war.If China supports Ukraine to join NATO, this may cause China and Russia to break.

But from another perspective, China supports Ukraine to join NATO, but it may fundamentally change the relationship between NATO and China and Russia.First, supporting Ukraine to join NATO will turn China into a supporter of NATO, that is, the "NATO ally" in Kissinger's mouth. China can take the opportunity of Russia and Ukraine to become a member of NATO negotiating table. ThisIt will help prevent the United States from expanding the NATO framework into a mechanism in Indo -Pacific.

Second, China can join forces with European NATO members such as France to bring the weakened Russia after the war into the new European security structure in the future -this process will shrink NATO back to "European security" in the future that can be shrinking in the future.In the original intention of the contract, and the NATO eastward expansion constitutes a threat to Russia, in response to Russia's security concerns.This may be acceptable to Russia.

In terms of diplomatic public relations, China supports Ukraine to join NATO will show its "peaceful rise" nature to the world, which will help to win the hearts of people outside China and the United States.In addition, the improvement of China's relationship with NATO through Ukraine will also help China and the United States to rebuild a certain degree of mutual trust, so that the two countries will be more likely to control the competition between the two parties and avoid unnecessary conflict.Ukraine, which has been helped by China and successfully joining NATO, will also play the role of bridge between China in NATO, which can be used as the basis for long -term exchanges between China and NATO.

Overall, supporting Ukraine to join NATO may be an effective means to prevent NATO from intervening in Indo -Pacific.

Of course, unless the American people's conditions change, the general trend of competition between China and the United States will not change because NATO does not intervene in India.The United States will still use the US -Japan -India -Australian Quartet Security Dialogue (QUAD), the US, Japan and South Korea's three -party military cooperation, the AUKUS (AUKUS), the United States and the Philippines to strengthen the National Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), and even at the Pacific island country in Papua New GuineaThe scattered U.S. military available bases, etc., continue to try to copy a "Indo -Pacific NATO".

But the "Indo -Pacific version of NATO" in this idea does not have the historical origins of NATO, nor the system inertia of NATO. Among them, there are a lot of countries that are based on their own interests and do not want to choose border stations between China and the United States.It can evolve into another NATO.

In terms of retreating 10,000 steps, China ’s preset position against NATO's eastward expansion is also based on a righteousness of a camp.Under the premise of competition between China and the United States, since NATO is the representative of US power, China should of course oppose its expansion.This thinking is not unreasonable. After all, NATO itself is the product of the cold war camp.

However, when the world enters the era of polarization, the thinking of the camp's opposition is already out of place. It may be a logic of a multi -dimensional alliance in replacing, allowing different countries to autonomously in different issues and regions through staggered.The multinational alliance to achieve its own goals.The supporters of NATO through the Ukraine crisis may be the most symbolic symbol of the multi -polarized world.