Li Kexian: How to impact the geographical situation in NATO in East Asia

Source: Ming Pao

Author: Li Kexian

The North Atlantic Covenant Organization (NATO) is a military alliance. If the member states are attacked or invaded by other countries, other member states have the responsibility to provide military assistance or fulfill their collective self -defense rights.NATO has become a classic example of successful deterrence in the Soviet Union and ensuring security of Western European countries after World War II.According to Russian President Putin, one of the reasons for its "special military operations" for Ukraine is the eastward expansion of NATO; China has always advocated that the United States and Europe need to seriously pay attention to Russia's national security considerations.NATO influence is evident.

When the Russian and Ukraine War was stuck, Japanese Foreign Minister Lin Fangzheng confirmed that NATO had the opportunity to open the first Asian contact office in Tokyo.China's relationship with the United States, which is mainly in the United States, has deteriorated in recent years, and the situation in the Taiwan Strait has become increasingly heating up.NATO's always concerned points are the Atlantic and Europe. In recent years, it has expanded humanitarian tasks in Africa, but it has a look at East Asia and can inevitably provoke Beijing nerves.Does this mean the apex of NATO's "eastward expansion" and what is its strategic intention?How much effort can NATO be put in East Asia?What impact does this military alliance bring to East Asia?

What are the strategic intentions of NATO

Early NATO's focus in East Asia was mainly North Korea. Former Secretary -General Anders Fogh Rasmussen showed that the United States would exercise collective self -defense if it was attacked by North Korea.Out of their own safety reasons, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been drawing NATO. In 2007, he said that Japan and NATO had a common responsibility in the face of global challenges. In his second prime minister, in 2013, Japan and NATO established a joint political declaration.The two sides exchanged issues such as counter -terrorism, network security, preventing large lethal weapons diffusion.In 2015, Japan expressed his hope to participate in the NATO Missile R & D Alliance, but only hearing the stairs.

and NATO really turned to Asia, which is related to the rise of China in recent years.In 2019, NATO called on allies to be careful of China's 5G network construction, and for the first time, China was included in the official discussion agenda, such as China's activities in the Arctic Circle and the influence of the "Belt and Road" in Eurasia.In the same year, the NATO Summit showed that it was necessary to respond to the "China Challenge" because China's influence has not been far.In 2021, NATO indicates that China is a "institutional challenge". The strategic focus of the next 10 years will be more effectively responding to China's "challenges brought by security, interests and values."

Last year, due to the war of Russia and Ukraine, many Asian countries were worried about "today's Ukraine, Taiwan tomorrow".Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand were invited to participate in the NATO Summit for the first time. Japanese Prime Minister Kishita Tianshiong was worried that the East China Sea and the South China Sea would unilaterally change the status quo by force, and it was also called insignificant in Europe and Asia.Faced with Russia's nuclear intimidation, NATO appears to be taboo in Ukraine; if East Asia or Asia -Pacific regeneration is incidents, how to deal with three countries with nuclear weapons in Russia, China and North Korea become a problem in the United States.It's hard to be spared.

How large is NATO forces to East Asia?

Although NATO's strategic policy has been locked in China, it is impossible to appear in short or medium term.Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary -General of NATO, clearly states that Russia is still "the most important and most direct threat", and China is a "institutional challenger", but it is not an enemy.

NATO has contact offices in other non -parties, such as Ukraine, Austria and Georgia.The purpose of the contact office is to strengthen the relationship between the country and NATO, such as political and defense dialogue, providing suggestions to assist the military's military forces and national defense policies, or general NATO public diplomacy.Of course, the liaison office also plays a symbolic role, which can increase the right to speak and security in the region in the region in the region in the region, which can attract attention from all walks of life.The Tokyo Liaison Office in NATO believes that it is also playing similar functions, but it is two different things with military cooperation or military alliance.

East Asia and even Asia. At present, they are not happy to see that the differences between China and the United States have continued to expand. It is forced to choose the border stations. It is a nightmare for many countries. This is a major limit for NATO.China is the source of economic development in the district, and China is no better than the iron curtain Soviet Union at that time.

Japan also seems to have considered considerations that NATO's contact position can enhance its international status and consolidate the strategic momentum of India's strategy;Less burden -but the risk of expenditure expenditure every year and the risk of being involved in other people's war due to the performance of collective self -defense, which has made many countries go for.

Facing China's severe criticism of Japanese side's serious reflection of history, NATO's eastward Asia -Pacific intervention regional affairs, and undermining regional peace and stability, the Japanese Foreign Minister Lin Fangzheng explained in a state of affairs: NATO's contact office will not target any specific country, and hopes to with ChinaMaintaining a stable relationship is obviously cooling down from the Prime Minister's earlier speech.

The problems revealed by NATO move

NATO has no plan and has no ability to change the geographical situation in East Asia; however, the symbol of NATO in Asia revealed some problems -the United States and Europe are restrained by the Russian and Ukraine war.The effect of Western economic sanctions Russia has been dismissed by the gradual improvement of China and Russia. Russia and Ukraine may continue to fight in the next few years; China's mediation may be a copy of the North Korean nuclear issue or the Director of the Rohingya in Myanmar.Or longer.The 20 -year experience of the United States in Afghanistan should also lead to God.

In the past year, the United States and Europe have tried their best to strengthen interaction with Taiwan and various semi -official relations. It is exactly the same as that of NATO's attention to mainland China and the beginning of focusing on India., Or Western unable to deal with the war on both sides of Eurasia and "unified force" in Taiwan.

On the other hand, NATO also gives too much imagination to the Taiwan Strait situation on dealing with the Ukrainian issue.The first is the opponent. For countries in the region, the cost of confrontation with mainland China is greater than Russia.The second is geographical location. NATO and Russia and Ukraine are neighbors in the United States and Europe. They also avoid directly participating in military assistance in Ukraine; Taiwan is an island, and the nearest is about 110 kilometers of Japan and that island.When the United States is in Japan, South Korea, and Guam to arrive in Taiwan, U.S. aircraft carriers may be subject to the range of the missiles of mainland China, and the situation of cooperative defense will be worse than Ukraine.Third, the Indo -Pacific strategy, the US -Japan -India -Australian Quarantine Military Alliance is loose than NATO. Once the United States has war in Taiwan due to Taiwan, it needs to be eaten.The fourth is to consider whether North Korean leader Kim Jong -un will take the opportunity to perfectly cooperate with China and Russia.Fifth, the economic coercion or retaliation of mainland China is alert to other countries that want to return to the United States, Europe, and Japan.Sixth, would the United States "defend" Taiwan as "in Taiwan", and would Japan and South Korea be involved in the war of others according to the contract of allies?

"NATO" thunder and heavy rain point is small

The most complicated international relations, probably how to understand the perception of the opponent, or whether the opponent's cognition and response have been deliberately across the big, so it also includes how to verify the perception and intention of the opponent.Of course, everyone will not reveal the cards, but as the United States has fled and fled in Afghanistan, and the United States and Europe assisted Ukraine in Ukraine, when the United States and Europe continued to emphasize the stability of Indo -Pacific and Taiwan Strait, the NATO card except is except for the cards.The thunder is small, and it is too early.In the United States and Europe that they could not scare their opponents, they became paper tigers.