In the election of the President of the Liberal Democratic Party held on September 20, the current president Abe did not expect to defeat the opponent and former Liberal Democratic Party's chairman Shi Po Mao, and was again elected.Among the votes of members, the two received 329 and 72 votes, respectively, and Abe accounted for 81.2%, which was in an overwhelming advantage.However, in the local tickets, the two received 224 votes and 181 votes, respectively. Abe's votes were only 55.3%, which was far lower than the estimation before the election. The Abe camp was deeply surprised.
This direction clearly reflects the local dissatisfaction with Abe, which also makes the Senate election next year full of uncertainties, and this election is essential to achieve the goal of Abe to achieve constitutional amendments.
Because of the three years of governance time, Abe will inevitably become the longest prime minister in the history of Japanese constitutional government.But for Abe, although he has the longest time to reign, although he is also desire, but his wish is to achieve the ultimate political goal during his term of office: modify the constitution.At the National Congress of the Liberal Democratic Party that modified the party constitution last year, Abe once again admitted that the constitutional amendment was the historical mission of the Liberal Democratic Party. To achieve this desire during his term of office was his established goal and fundamental appeal.From this point of view, his third term is the last time to achieve this goal.
At present, it is clearly expressed in favor of the constitutional party amendments. In addition to the Liberal Democratic Party and the Gongming Party, there are also Japanese Restoration Clubs and Hope Party in the wild.
This constitutional repair force has a total of 326 seats in the House of Representatives, and has 165 seats in the Senate, with more than two -thirds (310 and 162 seats, respectively).As far as the Senate is concerned, the constitutional amendment forces will only have three more seats, and the Senate election next summer will be re -elected by half of the members.Since the Japanese party in Japan is basically in the situation of falling apart, as far as the current situation is concerned, the constitutional amendment may not lose more than three seats.
But by more than half a year next summer, no one can ensure that it will not happen during this period that is not conducive to the constitutional forces.After Abe served as Prime Minister for the first time, he encountered Waterloo in the 2007 Senate election.There were 81 senators re -elected by the Liberal Democratic Party and the Gongming Party, but only 46 were elected, which was obviously less than half of the 51 people. After that, Abe had to resign.Next year is the year of the pig again. Can Abe escape this year -class year is not good?
In order to prevent Abe's most unwilling to see this situation, he has made it clear before, hoping to start reviewing the draft constitutional amendments of the Liberal Democratic Party in the next Congress.This can be understood as the temporary parliament this year, or it may be a routine parliament starting in January each year.In short, while the constitutional amendment forces have two -thirds of this favorable opportunity in the two hospitals, they have completed the review and voting of the draft constitutional amendments in Congress, and then put into referendum.
If you can't grab this program before next summer, you may have a lot of dreams at night, so that Abe and the constitutional power amendment for many years have been abandoned.
At present, the Democratic Party's draft draft draft still has a lot of objections in the party. The Gongming Party, the joint governing, has always maintained a cautious attitude. Each of the opposition party has forces to resist this.Abe is extremely anxious about this, but he is powerless to change this situation, so he is not confident in this, but also seems to be gray and lazy.
The election rules of the Liberal Democratic Party have changed, that is, local tickets and parliament votes are also 405 votes, while last time the local ticket was only 300 votes.
The first round of voting was a local party member voting. If two candidates were not less than half, they entered the second round of voting to make a decision.In addition to the 405 Liberal Democratic Party members of the second round of voting, the 47 capital counties in Japan also have one vote.In the last election, local representatives had no voting right in the second round.
In this way, Abe's advantage is obviously not so obvious.In the second round of the voting of members, the loss was lost.
Fortunately, more than half of Abe in the first round of voting on September 20, otherwise the Liberal Democratic Party's members may be regarded as a local grass -roots Liberal Democratic Party's distrust of Abe and abandoning the second round of voting, which may lead to Abe'sThe support tickets are seriously lost.This situation is not without precedent in the past Liberal Democratic Party's election.
In the Senate election in 1978, then President Fukuda defeated the competitors Dading Zhengfang in the first round of voting, so he abandoned the second round of voting, which made Daiping Zhengfang come to power.
In order to ensure an advantage in the first round of voting, Abe repeatedly highlighted his political achievements in governing in recent years during the campaign.In the first two years after Abe's comeback, he launched "Abe Economics" in the economic field. Although Japan's domestic effects on it, Japan's employment rate has significantly higher, and the stock market has risen significantly.
In addition, he also wished to obtain the right to host the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, modified the constitutional interpretation and allowed the exercise of collective self -defense. These are the "achievements" of Abe's talked about.
However, after 2015, the Abe regime is really lacking. Not only has the growth strategy and economic structural reform of the "Senyou Academy" and the "plus school" scandal ""Legal system" has been strongly opposed nationwide.
After he was whispered by the audience in his campaign speech, he actually reflected his lips, which caused national public opinion.Due to the long -term governance, Abe thought he was self -righteous, and he could not tolerate a different opinion at all, so that the Liberal Democratic Party and the government had a cold cicada.Anti -Abe even inverted Abe's forces to accumulate forces in private. Once Abe will lose a little in the future, or there will be a star scandal exposure, or its long -term ulcerous colonitis that has not been cured.Essence
Although he was re -elected as president as expected, if he could not achieve his greatest political demand MDash; MDASH; Constitutional amendment, Abe continued to love the stack meaningless.In September 2007, the scene where Abe had only been in the crowns only one year, people still remembered.
Abe, who was the youngest Prime Minister who was the first post -war background, was full of ambition and proud.Facing a high support rate of more than 70%, public opinion at that time even predicted that he might have been in power for 10 years.
Andbe did not live up to expectations. In just one year, the "Basic Law of Education" was successively revised, the defense hall was upgraded to the defense province, allowing the exercise of collective self -defense power hello; hellip;
But politics cannot always be covered with flowers, and there are always thorns.Once the scandal of a large number of omissions of pension records is exposed, no matter how many previous achievements are exposed, this has led to a defeat in the Senate election that was immediately held. In Abe, it seemed to fall from heaven in an instant.Hey, immediately announced his resignation.But even after leaving, Abe still faces many criticisms: picking up, irresponsible.
History always has amazing similarities.Will Abe repeat the same mistakes?This is a high concern at home and abroad at home and abroad.
The author is an associate researcher at the Shanghai International Institute of International Institute of International China
