Zhou Bo: China, Russia, Saudi Arabia and other countries in global revenue will exceed the West within 5 years.Perhaps the road of prosperity will no longer only pass through free and democratic countries.
On the horizon of the 21st century, no country is larger than China.China, which has benefited from globalization, has no fierce opposition to the current international system.Although China has resisted the pressure to accept Western democracy, it is the opening of the international order that China has achieved the rise in the past 40 years.
During this period, China conducted extensive and in -depth research on the West, especially paying attention to the principles and practices of advanced technologies and modern management.China not only changed itself, but also changed the whole world.
Observing the best lens of modern China is the "Belt and Road" initiative.No matter how magnificent the plan is, it stems from China ’s experience in the early stages of reform: a better road will lead to a better life.In view of that in China, there are still people living below the poverty line, it is understandable that its large -scale infrastructure construction projects in developing countries are understandable.
This initiative is neither charitable nor a debt trap. China must give priority to investment returns.Those countries that criticize the "Belt and Road" initiative have a blind eye to develop countries' real needs for foreign investment, and they are unwilling to invest.
Some analysts claim that the "Democratic Century" is over.They pointed out that within 5 years, those countries that are considered "not free" MDASH; mdash; such as China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia MDASH; MDash; the proportion of global revenue will exceed Western democratic countries.
People don't ignore this phenomenon.Including Qatar's Peninsula Television (Al Jazeera), China CCTV (CCTV), and Russia's Russian TV (RT) today, the news channels contributed by the government often watch millions of American audiences.A possible conclusion is that the road of prosperity no longer only passes through free and democratic countries.
However, the rise of China does not mean that Beijing intends to impose ideology and social systems to others.It does not intend to impose a new dominant model for "international order".China is expanding its influence of soft power through the Confucius Institute and promoting Chinese culture and language.This is no different from the long -term work that British Council or the French Culture Association (AISE).
In any case, the West tried to describe this complex era with the word "free international order", which was too simple.It did not reflect the reality of the Cold War, the disintegration of the Soviet Group, and the emergence of the Non-Aligned Movement.
History tells us that although the imperial and great powers have long occupied the domineering position, the world has never been a single pole.International order is a mixture, with different political systems, security structures and civilizations coexisting.There is no set of values suitable for everyone, and although a political scientist Francis Fukuyama's assertion is not over, history is not ended.
However, there are still differences, and that is how interdependence is the world today.This is why the US President Donald Bull; Donald Trump is determined to launch a global trade war, especially for China's trade war, which is misleading.The United States threatens tariffs on US $ 200 billion in China -US transit products, which will affect some imports in the United States.In addition, these exports are less than 10%of China's exports.Having said that, Beijing will not hesitate to retaliate.When all dust is settled, the United States will not lose without losses.
Perhaps the most important global change is the dramatic decline in violence.As the cognitive psychologist Steven Bull; Steven Pinker pointed out, we live in the most peaceful era of peace in human history.At the same time, the global economy has a new cutting method. The Oriental share MDASH; MDASH; Mdash; mdash; is increasing rapidly.Many things are stubborn.
This change may start major reconciliation and balance the international order to a new power balance.However, if the United States cannot tolerate this change and responds accordingly, it may be a very dangerous period today.
The author of this article is a special researcher at the China -US Defense Research Center of the Chinese PLA Academy of Military Sciences
Translator/He Li
