Zheng Hao: Why do you say that the Chinese economy is ＂stable and worrying＂?

Trial Time

At the Summer Davos Forum held in Tianjin, China a few days ago, Li Keqiang, Prime Minister of the State Council of China, pointed out that changes in the international economic and trade environment have made the Chinese economy stable and difficult to operate, and the economy is stable and concerned. HoweverFor the better.

After levying a 10%tariff on US $ 200 billion in imports in China, China immediately announced that it was forced to counter to the US $ 60 billion in imports of imports, ranging from 5%to 10%of tariffs.The Sino -US trade war entered the autumn offensive stage, and the two sides still did not fully show signs of solving problems intending to solve the problem by negotiations.In this way, China's economy is not groundless.

The question is, where is the worry?How to work hard?

The Chinese economy is in profound adjustment and change.In the past 40 years of reform and opening up, MDash, MDASH; MDASH; investment, exports and consumption, which has driven the rapid growth of China's national economy; investment, exports and consumption have begun to change significantly in the face of new and more complex domestic and foreign situations.

From the perspective of investment, with the gradual improvement of infrastructure construction, the government investment in large and water -filled has been excluded in key policy options for the Chinese government to promote economic growth.

The rapid growth of foreign trade imports and exports has also slowed down significantly in recent years.In the 20 years before the outbreak of the global financial crisis, China's rapid growth has led to its deep integration into the world economy and Asian regional supply chain, and the development of foreign trade has been leading the economic growth rate, which is particularly obvious after entering the 21st century.

For example, from 2001 to 2008, the average annual growth rate of China's import and export trade increased by more than 26%, especially in 2004, the total value of import and export in 2004 reached 1.16 trillion US dollars, which allowed China to join the WTO (WTO) in 2001 in 2001 (WTO) in 2001 (WTO) in 2001 (WTO) in 2001 (WTO) in 2001 (WTO) in 2001 (WTO) in 2001 (WTO) in 2001 (WTO) in 2001 (WTO) in 2001 (WTO) in 2001 (WTO) in 2001 (WTO) in 2001 (WTO) in 2001 (WTO) in 2001 (WTO) in 2001 (WTO) in 2001 (WTO) in 2001 (WTO) in 2001 (WTO).The plan proposed by 2010 and exports reached $ 1 trillion, which was realized six years in advance.

However, since the global financial crisis in 2008, due to factors such as weak world economic growth, shrinking demand, and renminbi appreciation, Chinese products export account for the proportion of GDP (GDP) have decreased from 32%in 2007 to 2016 in 2016Less than 18%of the year.By 2017, it fell further to 9.1%.

If the EU is not used as a overall economic calculation, China is currently the world's largest exporter and the second largest importer, and the international income and expenditure surplus will be of great significance for China's foreign exchange reserves.

However, due to the acceleration of China's internal demand growth, at the same time, in recent years, the industrial structure has been accelerated, and import growth has significantly faster than export growth.

Therefore, the direct consequence of export atrophy is that the proportion of GDP in the current projects of China's international revenue and expenditure is also from more than 10%in 2007 to 1.6%in 2016. Although there was a rebound last year, it was rebounded last year.It only accounts for 3.4%.

On the contrary, the investment and exports of GDP are slightly righteous, and China's internal demand growth has become a new driving force for GDP growth.

According to official statistics, the average annual contribution rate of domestic demand to China's economic growth from 2008 to 2017 reached 105.7%. From 2012 to 2017, China's final consumption expenditure has become the first engine of China's GDP growth for five consecutive years.In 2017, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth was 58.8%.

Obviously, China's GDP growth mainly depends on domestic demand (more than 90%), while more than 60%of domestic demand is driven by consumption.

The problem is that whether it is investment, export trade, or consumption, the three are closely linked. When promoting economic growth, the three -driving carriage cannot be split at all.The value chain is connected to the same. When the carriage is in a condition, other carriages will follow the horses to lose their forefoot. The motivation to drive economic growth will be unsatisfactory.

Especially when the Chinese government emphasizes the adjustment of structure, promoting employment, and stable growth coordination, discussing the role of these three -driving carriages on GDP, it seems that it does not have much practical significance.

The correct direction of thinking should be: rationalizing the relationship between various driving force for economic growth, ensuring that the reasonable growth of various motivations rather than biased a certain motivation, it should also avoid too much emphasis on the contribution rate of a certain power to GDP growth to leadThe government has unnecessary incentive preferences in policy selection (such as credit, taxation, subsidies, etc.) and misleading information to the society.

Li Keqiang also emphasized that stable employment is a top priority. This is the government's serious requirements for creating employment and ensuring employment in China in the current complex global economy and rapid changes in various uncertain factors.It covers all employment positions such as manufacturing, services, innovation, logistics, trade, infrastructure, e -commerce, etc.

Whether it is investment, export trade or consumption, the key element of promoting growth is employment, and fully employment can maintain sustainable economic growth.Stability of employment is the foundation of stable development and the guarantee of stability. It is not difficult to imagine its difficulty.

The negative impact on export -related industries is emerging

At present, the Sino -US trade war is hit.If we just look at the situation of China's import and export trade industry, the potential hidden concerns are still very obvious: one is that export atrophy will continue, and the other is that employment of employees in the export industry may lose, and the third is that the trade surplus will also decrease.According to incomplete statistics, the number of employment in the foreign trade industry is about 40 million to 45 million.If the foreign trade environment continues to deteriorate, the employment status of the import and export industry will deteriorate.

In fact, in China's major foreign trade provinces such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Shandong, Fujian, and Hunan have already shown that the negative impacts of engaging in export products manufacturing and processing trade, services and logistics are emerging.The city has continued to grow negative exports.Although these industries will not have large -scale unemployment or quasi -unemployment (hopes) in the short term, the trade war will not end for one day, and export atrophy will continue.

What is even more worrying is that the vow showing the U.S. trade war in the Sino -US trade war should reduce the bullying attitude of the trade deficit to force China to make concessions. It may have a negative demonstration effect on many countries that exist in trade with China and become these countries.The pursuit of the pretext of protecting the interests of the country in China.

It can be imagined that the foreign trade environment facing China in the future will only be worse, which will bring more and greater impact on export trade.

For example, according to the statistics of the EU Statistical Bureau, from 2007 to 2017, the EU 27 countries had always had a deficit with bilateral trade with China, and the overall as a whole was on the rise.

In 2017, the import and export deficit of bilateral cargo in China -EU was 200.7 billion US dollars, an increase of 3.6%over the previous year.Among the major EU member states, except for Germany's surplus of US $ 17.04 billion in trade in China, other countries are deficit.Among them, the French deficit was US $ 10.36 billion, the Italian deficit was 16.85 billion US dollars, the Dutch deficit was US $ 80.32 billion, the Spanish deficit was 17.19 billion US dollars, and the Belgian deficit was US $ 7.76 billion.

In the bilateral trade between China and the main member of the Asianianan in 2017, according to Chinese customs statistics, in addition to Malaysia's US $ 12.6 billion in trade in China, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Singapore are all deficit, and the deficit of the four countries is about $ 63.5 billion.In addition, in China with India and Russia's bilateral trade, India has a $ 24.16 billion deficit and Russia's $ 9.2 billion deficit.

From this point of view, the fact that the long -term trade imbalance between China and other major trading partners will still be difficult to determine whether the trade friction between China and other countries will be caused by the Sino -US trade war.In fact, China, Russia, China and India (Du), China South (Africa), China Pakistan (West), and China Europe (League) are endlessly resolved through negotiations, but some have been successfully resolved, but some are mutual.Tariffs are difficult to compromise.

PenIt is believed that the pressure on China in the future may be increasing. In the critical period of economic development, there are still many tasks to maintain the steady economic development of the new and old kinetic energy conversion.

While the Chinese government is trying to maintain an appropriate investment scale, while further adopting the optimization of the business environment, accelerating market access and opening up, encouraging innovation and entrepreneurship, supporting the Internet (e -commerce) economy, and combined with the Belt and Road Initiative to open up new overseas economic and trade and tradeWith a series of measures such as the investment market, it supports the motivation of pushing economic growth and ensuring employment.

There is no doubt that these are very necessary.But at the same time, it is also important to continue to promote export trade, stimulus, and maintaining strong domestic consumption needs.After all, the interoperability and connection of the industrial chain, supply chain and value chain is an important basis for ensuring the steady development of the economy.

The author is a senior current affairs commentator of Phoenix Satellite TV.

If we just look at the situation of China's import and export trade industry, the potential hidden concerns are still very obvious: one is that export atrophy will continue, and the other is that employment of employees in the export industry may lose, and the third is that the trade surplus will also decrease.According to incomplete statistics, the number of employment in the foreign trade industry is about 40 million to 45 million.If the foreign trade environment continues to deteriorate, the employment status of the import and export industry will deteriorate.